40/70 Benchmark

@Typhoon Tip....only point I will disagree with is that its quelling off quickly, which is my main point. Its been very slow. Take a look at the rate of descent in some other seasons in that tabular data...

Oh, all valid points. Its far from an exact science....totally debatable.

No worries....its relevant.

Vicarious congrats, @Ginx snewx

You need to keep in mind that the negative QBO is not descending until like February, which could factor in...

13.1/10.4

Agree. I expect near neautral or slightly positive PDO.

Yea, its not a bad match. I just didn't include it in the composite bc I binned by QBO, but ENSO is similar...just a bit more delayed. I think this warm ENSO event is a bit better coupled with atmosphere, though. We'll see.

Gotcha. I'm not a big math guy....social worker by trade. I can do that in the future, but the forecast amounts vs actual are there for everyone to see. I'm quite happy with my level of success overall, last year not withstanding.

Thanks, but I'll leave it. Forecast error for me is the percentage that verified seasonal snowfall totals deviated from my forecast range. Regardless, the forecast and verified totals are there to see. It was bad in sne. I focus most on snowfall, and its much less in the northeast than last season's forecast. Additionally, the forecast is not as cold as the composite maps...I specified that. Last season, I forecast an epic second half..this season, its onky salavagable with blocking. It wasn't that warm in the east last year. Good luck-

I love me some urinal cake #dontlickthefrosting Weheeeeeeeee

Thanks, Tom. I have learned alot from your work, as always.

Like I just said in mid atl forum, it was difficult for me to communicate the potential of the second half, while concomitantly conveying that it was lower confidence due to the reliance upon the onset of blocking. I am more confident in the PNA period. I feel at least some blocking materializes second half....but it will suck if it doesn't. Should be some NAO in Dec, too, but transient.

I could easily see the second half being better, but I have more confidence in the first half because the good second half is dependent upon blocking....if that makes sense...

15.8 for the low..

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2019/11/winter-2019-2020-modified-modoki.html City Predicted Snowfall Actual Forecast Error Boston, MA 45-55” ? ? New York, NY 20-30" ? ? Philadelphia, PA 17-27" ? ? Baltimore, MD 15-25” ? ? Washington, DC 15-25” ? ? Albany, NY 65-75” ? ? Hartford, CT 50-60” ? ? Providence, RI 40-50” ? ? Worcester, MA 70-80” ? ? Tolland, CT 60-70" ? ? Methuen, MA 65-75” ? ? Hyannis, MA 20-30” ? ? Burlington, VT 80-90" ? ? Portland, ME 70-80” ? ? Concord, NH 65-75” ? ? Index Value Predicted '19-'20 DM Value Range Actual '19-'20 DM Value Forecast Error Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) 0 to .30 ? ? Perennial North American Pattern (PNA) .15 to .45 ? ? ENSO Weak Modoki El Nino (0.3 to 0.5C ONI) (NDJ) 0.5C NDJ ONI .50 Modoki ? (J-M) East Pacific Oscillation (EPO) -.15 to -.45 ? ? Arctic Oscillation (AO) 0 to -.30 ? ? North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) -.15 to .15 ? ?

Warm-neutral ENSO....not a top analog...

16.5/14.6 Decoupling..

17.8/15.6

22.8/16.7

Yes.

Mine were unnecessarily lol. Can't spin that-

Many were...mine included.

My two bad missess were due to getting the polar domain wrong during el nino events. NAO and AO are tough to predict...breaking news, I know.