40/70 Benchmark

Firstly, SW NE did get a good deal of snow from that Jan 2016 event, and the Dec 1997 was very prolific north of Boston, regardless of what took place in your back yard. Additionally, those three la nina events were barely over the strong threshold. Secondly, you can't count one season three times. 2/3 of those la nina seasons featured no major SNE events...all three of those super el nino seasons did. Sorry, but you're wrong. The prominent STJ in stronger el nino seasons, while not ideal for this region, is better for the prospects of major winter storm than a strong la nina regime. Additionally, el nino is more highly correlated with neg NAO, than la nina, which is another reason why it is more beneficial.

Sweet. Enjoy...go howl at the moon

Rain in Chelsea

I can't be far off, though you are bit further inland. 36

Looks look a painting or a pillow case lol

36.1/32.3

I was shocked....you always cover your tracks.

Nothing in Chelsea, yet.

Wet bulbing...down to 37.0 now. Should hit 35 IMO.

The only aspect that was la nina like was the prevalent RNA during the second half, although there have been past la nina seasons that featured good deal of blocking.

37.6/30.7 Down from Hi of 38.7

You sure? Wife confirmed flurries in Methuen...or as Kev says, "Metheun".

I get what you mean in that past ENSO composites need to be modified, but I'm not sure that that will change the fact that there is a more prominent STJ during el nino than la nina...or let me rephrase, until I see evidence that that is no longer the case, I'll take my chances on scoring a big fish in a strong el nino, rather than la nina.

WB is like 35, though...

I am cooked at home. 38.1/29.9

Yea, strong canonical el nino seasons are very mild....no debating that.

How prominent was your expanded HC in Feb 1983 and Dec 1997? What it means is that high-end events are much more frequent in strong el nino seasons than in strong la nina seasons during the period of record, regardless of why.

Does the wife know you and he are that close?

Nice. Maybe Kev sniffed one out-

No, because I would have the day off, unlike for 2" of "who cares"-

His love for weather runs deeper than mine.....your's does, too. I only get excited over snow and hurricanes. But I do follow mundane weather on a daily basis, but you guys don't know it because I don't discuss it. I have a wall calendar that I use as a daily weather journal....good mindfulness exercise, too from a social work standpoint. I'm just not like Steve in that I don't have the ambition to dig up soundings for a P Cloudy day in May.

Sure, maybe its easier to nickel and dime your way to a couple of forgettable extra inches in strong la nina, but odds of a big one are nearly nil in a very strong la nina. Last three super el nino seasons: 1982-1983: Megalopolis blizzard. 1997-1998: Dec 23 bomb that dropped an 8"-spot on Ayer in an hour. 2015-2016- Top 3 mid atl blizzard. I rest my case-

I don't need the inconvenience of a couple of inches messing with my commute a this stage. Not bitter....not complaining. It is what it is.

I think Steve would disagree. Either I'm whining about not getting enough snow incessantly, or I hate snow...which is it? lol

What you are referring to is called the "Delayed Oscillation" theory, and I have written about it. https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2016/08/ Stronger ENSO events correlate more to the opposite ENSO state the following season due to the subsurface phenomena that drive ENSO, such as the Walker Cycle. This does not mean that we are screwed for several years following an intense el nino, but rather that a la nina is favored after a super el nino. 1983-1984 and 2016-2017 were decent snowfall la nina seasons immediately following intense el nino events.