40/70 Benchmark

I realize that this conflicts with the increased frequency of huge events due to more water vapor. Just not sure how it all works together...maybe more frequent protracted "streaks" spanning successive" winters?

I agree on the regression piece...no argument on that. I just think there is something to the increasing geopotential medium providing more deconstructive interference during boreal winter, than the transition seasons....I also agree that this impacts ENSO climo...we just don't know how much.

Thank you. I wanted to say something about the wavelengths to Will, but abandoned the attempt because I was at a loss for the exact conceptualization.

Not ostensibly, no.

I'm not asking you to adopt anything....I'm just speculating. I understand the small sample size. I'm not sure what would cause it. I do know that Oct has a slight negative correlation to winter NAO, which is not applicable this season. But I just wonder if having a very anomalous winter pattern that early in the season primes the atmosphere to underachieve in during the winter. It does seem like the ends of the season are more favorable, and the middle of winter less favorable since climate change... maybe something due to HC, expasnion...IDK. Just tossing shit against the wall.

You ever stop to wonder that maybe it has to do with the changing climate, somehow? Like the increased frequency of large snowfalls...

Just gotta get this block out of here.....hopefully it will redevelop before spring, but the deck desperately needs to be reshuffled.

Thread cancel

You usually manage to find the kernel of corn in the deepest recesses of the terd....'cmon, look harder.....squint...

Look, I know that if the you crunch the stats, there isn't really a signal...I don't care. October snow makes me sick to my stomach....logically speaking, its unwarranted, but I'll be damned if it hasn't been correct more often than not. I understand Oct 2002, 2000, blah, blah....yiipee, boing, yatzi

Hopefully the block can stick around through February bc....you know, last thing we need is warmth or snow.

Its great if you're @Dr. Dews, @snowman19 or @MJO812

Rest your neck, where rev's wee weenie be

Just a less phased, suppressed terd. I'll give it until Sunday, but 1/29 needs a respirator, and there are no more left.

Now lets watch 1/29 do its best Feb 1980 impression.

Looks a hair more suppressed compared to 06z..

Need to see the Euro at least bring 1/29 to within 100mi or so of the BM in order to take it seriously. 1/26 can either whiff, or shred to 1" here, all the same to me.

The Dawn may never Awaken....

I'm sure Will is probably going to still provide solid analysis, but most aren't very interested. I will get outlooks going for that tonight or tmw, since CT looks to get some decent snow.

I actually thought it had a shot at warning, too. I always thought under 6" for you, though...... Final Call was widespread T-2".

You did, but guidance didn't.

I would settle for some runs that bring 1/29 close to the south coast, at this range, but they all hit Hateras and go ene.

Yup....same page, again. I think it will be a warm spring, and although blocking may reappear again in March, you aren't getting that 2018 result in a mod la nina peak season IMO....not to mention a W QBO. That happened in 2018 because it was a weak la nina and easterly QBO.

Eh...maybe a few showers from the GL cutter to close out the month.