40/70 Benchmark
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Everything posted by 40/70 Benchmark
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I'm going to go on Facebook and mark myself safe from James' mid range model analysis.
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There are plenty of crafts that we have honed as a society over the course of the past century....hell, decade. How do you think we got to that point? A different attitude would still have people in horse and buggies battling polio.
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I understand that I include snowfall in the seasonal outlook, and I admit that there is reduced value in that variable....but I do it because it is my love for winter weather that fuels my drive to complete the whole undertaking.
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It's funny how some people will never wrap their minds around the difference between forecasting a large scale hemispheric regime, and the subtle nuances in relation to the phasing of a cyclone. That is such a silly analogy...its not the same thing. "We can't even forecast a snowstorm 2 days out, how will be forcast a pattern 2 months out!" If you can't understand that, then you're probably better served to never venture into seasonal forecasting.
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Funny how its usually the guys who don't do them that shit on the effort....I think there have been enough successful efforts in general (not just me) to justify the value. Anyway, it's the best exercise for expanding your knowledge on the topic if nothing else.
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I would say 3/6 of mine have been very accurate. I've been better with la nina. I was 3/4, but past couple fraud nino events killed me.
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I have some hope for March. Like I said, I expect some fun to come in January.
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I would say if that happened, it would be a very early phase change event.
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I am confident February will not be great.
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Good luck with that.
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Sorry, dude....if we get to Jan 18 with nothing even on the table, something has gone wrong , regardless of your level of denial. Do I expect that....no.
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I'll tell you, give me Feb 2018 over what the long range GFS is selling verbatim.
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I honestly had a sinking feeling when I first started reading this back then......but once I started seeing shutouts to the mannerisms of prominent posters, I was like "you dick"....lol
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Anyone catch BOX totals map? Just checked FB and couldn't come across one... -
Yea, I got about two weeks left in me, and if the hunt hasn't paid off, or a payoff is not imminent, then I'll be ready for baseball.
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No, I figured you were "poking the hornet's nest", so to speak....just figured that I'd oblige.
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That is the hope....Feb could get fugly.
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I mean, I could see toning down a bit, but not what happened last year.
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Thing is everything has been consistent for like over a week. This isn't going to vanish.
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Well, it stands to reason that global warming is muting its significance, like John says with the HC expansion etc. Not disputing that, but I don't think it should be ignored, either.
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Coating.
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ENSO is not meaningless IMO. It's not the prominent driver that it once was.
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I'm bullish in the sense that I buy into a favorable couple of weeks, but make no mistake about it, I don't expect Boston to get like 70" and I still think Feb is a torch.
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Except the past two...last year I was right about the quick start, and mid winter lull, but the pattern came back too late.
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It also insulates the ground if we ever get an arctic plunge.
