40/70 Benchmark

Fair enough. I would have nevee guessed that CT has been shafted.

About as impressive as most severe episodes.

No. Just got home. Some spotty outages...loop has no power. Some ponding and twigs down. #stayingsafe

Heading into it...prob not Tor

That nasty warned call right over my house.. ..nasty

Well, I don't think the greater snowfall has been due to more smaller events....we have had an abundance of big tickets, progressive as they may have been...

Yea, I'm not arguing the physics of the idea...more just speculating on the impact in terms of snowfall. I will say that it has been like pulling teeth to get really slow movers the past couple of decades, which maybe the gradient saturation manifesting itself. However I think speed of movement is an overrated determinent of snowfall....its all about dynamics, which are relatively fleeting, anyway...6-9 extra hours of shreded RAD echoes are fairly inconsequential.I think that increased frequency of excessive snowfalls in the face of the gradient saturation is a testament to this. Additionally, the gradient is also beneficial in terms of east coast snowfall at times in the absence of blocking....goes both ways.

Thanks for the clarification. Maybe I am wrong, but I did not see the issue, at least not predominately, as a 2001-2002 type relentless PAC firehose that eradicates N America of cold, last year. We had plenty of cold, but in the absence of a pos PDO, the cold dumped west, and with no Atl blocking, there was nothing to hold it and prevent storms from displacing it.

Thanks for the clarification.

John, I'm not hiding behind semantcs. We have had an unprecedented frequency of 12"+ snowfalls over the past 25 years. While this is partially attributable to disparate measuring techniques, clearly the gradient saturation has not been a large mitigator. Last season not withstanding, unless you have been in a coma since the mid 90s, it clear these large snowfalls have been predominstely from major coastals, and not overrunning. We have not had an issue igniting major coastal cyclogensis as of yet, however no one can definitively say whether this will take place in the future.

What does this have to do with episodes of PNA during boreal winter?

Care to elaborate?

Maybe another back-loaded winter. Thanks for that research. Some Pacific help could mean a bit more of a favorable early season regime for the east coast relative to last season, though. IOW, while we may have to wait on any NAO help until later in the season, I think the PDO will be higher.

I think it has helped a bit, but generally agree, which is what I was getting at. The gradient saturation has not impeded large scale winter storms as of yet.

Lol SNE would take that blend. We'll see what happens....still so early.

John, how do you explain the increase in snowfall over the past 25 years in the face of the gradient saturation of which you speak that is so inimical to the holy grail events for winter enthusiasts? You think the increase in water vapor to to AGW is enough to off set?? Not trying to be a jerk....serious inquiry...

Dude, I wouldn't touch her with thundersnow ongoing.

I'm not trying to say that it doesn't matter...everything does. The fun is figuringt out impact. I don't think its as simple as assuming gradient saturation and cyclogen underperformance.

Same way I got excited about a weak el nino during the fall of 2006....oops. SSW have varied regional impacts, as well. Maybe its just me, but I'd rather make efforts to properly diagnose complex phenomena such as ENSO and SSW, rather than predict less snow every season due to increased gradients and call it a day. Statistically speaking, the seasonal snowfall data during the past 25 years of constricting gradients further buttresses this notion.

SSW are oversimplified like most atmospheric phenomena. We are conditioned as a cohort of global weather enthusiasts to take our pants off whenever a SSW is modeled and Pavlov is laughing in his grave.

I think its even more so a solid indicator of just how uneventful last winter was. I know that if I were married in Feb 2015, my wife would not be due this fall.

Exactly. The recency bias. I'm not doubting the physics of what he is saying, but rather the degree to which it will be relevent moving forward, or the magnitude of the impact that it may have. Didn't hear much about this in March 2018, did we...aside from those telling me that winter was over and I was wrong about epic March blocking in February, while it was 70. As I stated my the winter review, I think the placement of the SSW really played a big role in mitigating last winter, while it saved the previous one. Like ENSO events, placement and timing is every bit as important as intensity. I'm learning this the hard way like the rest of us. We had sufficient blocking in early December, when we failed to cash in, and it is no cooincidence that it abated when it did. The SSW has a ripple effect, and it doesn't always mean snow in sne.

We have always had ENSO events that have deviated from the norm...hell, just 5 years ago we had a weak el nino behave pretty much as expected. I think the gradient saturation may become a more prevalent issue, but its difficult to say just how prominent and whether other factors could countermand its influence.

Probably has some merit, but like everything else, its overstated and not always that simple. Last season, that was correct.....other years, it wasn't as much of an issue. Maybe it is a more prominent issue moving forward as climo evolves, but we have seen seasons in the not so distant past become really blocking prone.

You will never get the last 4 months of your meterological life back.