Look at any time frame you want....euro was a whiff most of that modeling evolution, and even close in...it had the death band over extreme s NH....then I smoked exhaust while Brian's chickens did naked snow angels in 34"....so don't tell me the shit was too amped.
RGEM, UK and GFS all jacked e MA w big totals.....again, I'm not arguing it was ever likely. But e MA does not need deep antecedent cold in mid winter to jack. Just the mid level banding, like anywhere else.