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40/70 Benchmark

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Everything posted by 40/70 Benchmark

  1. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, they probably want to avoid overshooting again, so just waiting on recon.
  2. 40/70 Benchmark
    Wow...maybe compensating since the 105mph was originally a bit generous.
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yes
  4. 40/70 Benchmark
    Cat 3 125mph
  5. 40/70 Benchmark
    My money is on 115mph.
  6. 40/70 Benchmark
    More like 15-18 hrs
  7. 40/70 Benchmark
    Probably, but not a given...15' surge is possible
  8. 40/70 Benchmark
    That will be challenged IMO...will be close, unless it curls more west
  9. 40/70 Benchmark
    Bad for wind, good for surge.
  10. 40/70 Benchmark
    Raul, this rate of intensification just make an ERC less likely.
  11. 40/70 Benchmark
    This system reminds me of a post ERC storm in terms of sat presentation...just an anecdotal ob.. .I wonder if some funky internal stuff went on due to friction of land
  12. 40/70 Benchmark
    I got burned expecting that with Michael...its generally the case, but not always.
  13. 40/70 Benchmark
    Be careful assuming ingest of drier continental air upon approach....thre is a mositure feed from central America.
  14. 40/70 Benchmark
    Wouldn't building of ridge trend it west?
  15. 40/70 Benchmark
    Your only shot is a track far enough west.
  16. 40/70 Benchmark
    Doesn't have time for an ERC....watch.
  17. 40/70 Benchmark
    Now that is a catastrophic ensemble suite.
  18. 40/70 Benchmark
    Nah, too far west on that run
  19. 40/70 Benchmark
    NO needs the bend back more westward in the GOM because right now eastern envelop is favored.
  20. 40/70 Benchmark
    Odds are they won't get the very worst of it, but I felt it prudent to really emphasize the danger because its perfectly feasible
  21. 40/70 Benchmark
    Strong most likely? Good luck.
  22. 40/70 Benchmark
    This is why the majority of the most intense US LFs are not long tracker CV storms...that, and less chance for recurve.
  23. 40/70 Benchmark
    That, to me, is the fun of forecasting....hedging when to over/under cut guidance. No one with a true passion for weather vomits model output in any event of relevance.
  24. 40/70 Benchmark
    Agree
  25. 40/70 Benchmark
    There are also times when the models are overzealous...again, forecaster needs to blend meteorological breadth of perspective/experience with foundational knowledge to synthesize a superior forecast...machines can not do that.
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