40/70 Benchmark

Man, I would be pumped and starting a thread if I were you.

Looks like 00z, just a hair more amped.

Do you have any theory on why every, single SW this season has attenuated on approach to the region?

Dec 2003.

Well, both did....the 2001 one is legit, IMO.

You are thinking of March 2001....it was 40"+ around Lee, NH....

Yea, just up the road from me. We have spoken about that area before. I dated a girl from Amesbury 10 years ago....nice town.

Try being me in in 12/5/03....11", my dad 8 miles away had 26"....10 miles east of me had about 38".

Rain/snow line, or dry slot?

Feb 2006 was Meh for me....not a high level disappointment, but lame, nonetheless. I had like 16"....like you, I am looking at the mega band out west, expecting it to come east because I had no clue about the mid levels then.

Dishonorable Mention: Boxing Day 2009, 12/17/2020, and March 2019.

Jan 8, 96 would be on this list if I had lived in Methuen, then.....but thankfully, I was in Wilmington.

My three most traumatic events are PD II (1 foot subby hole, surrounded by 2 foot reports), 12/5/03 (1 foot subby hole surrounded by 2-3' reports just 5 miles away), and the second event in Dec 1996, which did to me pretty much exactly what Dec 1992 did to Scott. I was sweating the R/S line headed into it. It started pounding heavy snow, and I have just had a good 6-8" in the first event....I'm thinking, "this is great, we're off...I'll have a great pack headed into the holidays". Then, bang...its pouring after 2" of slush, and I hear a report from the next town over in Billerica that its dumping paste with 5". A few hours later I see Cantore spontaneously ejaculate amid the glow of lighting on camera, and the etching of an eternal scar was complete.

Its worth it to see what you did in 2015....I'd take 10 March 2001 and Dec 1992 episodes for that, if I were you.

That is one of a handful of posts I have ever seen you make that didn't include a question mark lol

We have been generally lucky, regionally, but your area takes to another level.

I will bet you that we get at least one widespread warning event between 1/20 and 2/1. Name your price and criteria...

I agree with you on that....same for Wilmington and Methuen. Its a decent spot to live if you want to do generally decently and avoid getting skunked often, but prime forcing can be pretty elusive. Very low elevation, and the CF is usually significantly east, which can lead to subsidence between low level forcing to the east, and mid levels to the west (see 12/17). It is often nearby in Wilmington, but the residence time is not what it is along the n shore. You need to really luck out with the mid levels to jackpot, or have a hugger that pins the cf a bit inland for a while. The area is also just far enough north to miss the best lift with the juggernauts, like Feb 78.

I'd be utterly shocked if we didn't get at least a decent storm or two, like Will said.

Agree. I would give anything to somehow erect like 1000' hill in my area.....the terrain enhancement on that moist NE flow during storms would be awesome. I would know its more with an entire range, but it would be nice with the CF included and what not.

East slopes are the best for deep layer easterly events.

If you do the south shore, do that area from Weymouth to Norwell....really underrated area, as its quite the OES snowbelt. If you are coming out my way, get near I 495.....No closer to the ocean than W Billerica, N Tewksbury.....if you had to do the N shore, do Peabody, Salem or Danvers.

@WinterWolf......the resident weather coach lol

I think in the big picture, it will essentially be climo snowfall for much of the region....or even a bit below, but looks like a fun stretch, hopefully. It looks like from 1/21 to about 1/25 is the apex of the pattern, thereafter the EPO ridge and NAO block retrograde.....I think the time to watch for a big ticket item is in that 1/25 to 2/1 time frame. Before 1/25, its probably more overrunning and late bloomers, and after 2/1 its more SWFE or rain.

Hr 252, 12z on 1/22 on the EPS is about as close a replica to the Jan 2011 pattern as you will ever see.