40/70 Benchmark

Right...."at least"...

I can't believe how unknowledgeable and lackadaisical he is about routine ENSO climo. I asked him to name all of the mod la nina events that had a BIG February or March in the Boston area... ."2018, I am sure there are plenty more". 2018 was clearly weak....if there are plenty, list away..... "2011 was a great season, and 2001 had a big March storm" 2011 had a big JANUARY, and then quieted down. 2001 was clearly weak (links CPC historical ONI data) "1996 was a very busy season, I'm sure there are many more" 1996 was clearly weak "(apparently goes to bed)".

Yea, even here....I'm convinced that at least one will whiff...maybe like a pike south deal, which is a whiff for me.

He knows people are getting annoyed "Maybe I am alone but I remain intrigued by yet more predicted disruptions to the #PolarVortex." This guy is going to be rambling about splitting daughters and cold air pooling just 20 days away, from a remote nursing him in July.

All guidance is pretty suppressed with everything, right now...

Its like the folks from Gulfport, MS being interviewed post Katrina...."eh, just a little beach erosion".

Everyone knows my stance on these meteorological unicorns, but all three major ensemble clusters look as though they are trying to signal some type of norlun/inverted trough like feature over eastern MA extending from that 1/26 graze job.

Been a few years, but to my knowledge, male pattern baldness usually doesn't reverse course without some aggressive intervention. I guess we can surmise what took place if we see head a full of curly cues on your grape once we all gtg after the pandemic.

March has always been a wild card in my mind....my composite had tremendous March blocking, but I wussed out in the narrative partly because of both the magnitude of la nina/QBO, and the recent propensity for blocking to wait until spring to (re)emerge.

One thing I have noticed about SSW is that they tend to stagnate the MJO in whatever phases it was in at the onset....this is what ruined 2018-2019, and made that season look like a la nina during what should have been a prime time of a prolific, weak, modoki el nino season. That has also happened this season with the first SSW, however, I think the MJO is finally staggering into more favorable phases should this SSW succeed.

I would bet the remaining uncompromised 3 hair follicles on the top of Kev's head that a repeat of that Dec pattern would fare better in February.

You seem to have a better mastery of the strat stuff than I do...theoretically, given the 20 day lag, etc...that could protract blocking through all of Feb, no? That would likely take an exotically warm Feb off of the table...worst case is probably like December, given the EPO should still crap out.

I feel like one of those two events (26 and 29) will be a mid atl special....that was a notable element in my analogs, which is why I didn't go ratter for them in a mod nina...Jan or Feb mid atl special. Hopefully they take the 26th, and leave us the follow up big dog.

Only diff with Feb 94 is that I think it was more Pacific driven....its the Atlantic that would save us this Feb IMO. I still think the month will go to crap, but it we kill it for a week or two, no one will care.

I get what you mean, but I think Steve would tell you himself that if you call for a top 5 snowy month, and its nearly snowless.....its a whiff. Some busted calls are more egregious than others, and he certainly correctly identified a decent look this month.

I am a lot more optimistic for the first week or two of Feb, so hopefully our original ideas can meet in the middle and salvage a decent winter.

Completely agree. The random OP cutter runs are fraudulent. For the folks like @Damage In Tolland who are frustrated, and favor persistence.....you need a smoking gun to buy into change. I think the elevating PNA next week is it.

Euro porks me and nails most of sne on 26th....probably right.

GEFS is more miller B, which probably makes more sense.

That is the one to watch.

Yea, I don't see a rainer.

S shore had the most....down near Norwell, Pembroke and Marshfield was ground zero.

NAO south again.

Yea, PNA is still negative circa 1/29, but it nears neutral and it looks as though what ridging there is will be very well positioned. I'll bet the big Feb 1969 and Jan 2011 events had something similar.

I could def. see that.....looking more hopeful we can hold a decent pattern into a significant portion of Feb. I think 30 is too aggressive, but maybe 15-20.