40/70 Benchmark

Just eye-balling, I think I landed in my range on 8/15 locales, which would be a new high-water mark....and desperately needed after the past couple of horror-shows. There is obviously luck involved with snowfall because its subject to so much variance...I don't think some of the "poor" forecasts were as bad as the snowfall made them appear, and this seasons's forecast wasn't as good as the snowfall made it appear...kind of like 2014-2015 in that a flawed forecast got "lucky" in that the snowfall was right for the wrong reason. It evens out in the end.

Looks like Worcester may have been my largest miss...followed by Concord, NH.

I'll go over the post-mortem in depth about a month from now, but looks like the snowfall worked out for the most part. The overall forecast def. had issues, though.

I don't think you need an anomaly of that magnitude to produce a milder outcome in NE this time of year.

I'm not basing my stance off of the CANSIPS.

Funny, I share that same feeling...

Reminds me a bit of 2010-2011.....with less NAO and perhaps a better PNA.

This would include some nasty arctic outbreaks.... Quote

That look would defintely offer some colder outbreaks than we had this past year.

It looks similar, but I think it looks better ITVO AK....hopefully its much better for snowfall in SNE, or I'd absolutely lose it.

Snowfall wasn't comparable most of NE.

CANSIPS was by far the best seasomal guidance for this past winter BTW....

Looks more consistent with my early expectation...expect the consensus to roll into this look.

.36" here...slept through it all. I'm turning into Kev with the sleep schedule now in my mid 40s.

I'm sure it will consist of more pictures from up and in, with perhaps some slop for @ineedsnowand @HoarfrostHubb...nothing I'll give a salty scrotum about.

You can see how it was a rountine looking, progressive system until around 1500 on 3/31, when it was apparent that it began to get captured and etch its place into history.

Exactly.....if you go back and look at my Outlooks from like 2021 and beyond, 70% of the pieces was breaking down ENSO composites....hell, up until 2020, I used to break down every element of the atmosphere from scratch and explain it from the bottom up, but it there was value in doing it because it helped me to learn...much lke writing research papers in school. You and I have many Outlook efforts under out belt, we don't need to do that anymore. One thing I have found helpful is doing the basic explanations on a serparte post and hyperlinking it in the body of the outlook....I refer them as "addendums".

The primary issue I have seen with your work is that you tend to get lost in the trees and lose sight of the forest, so to speak.......the data is overwhelming as it is for me going back to 1950, nonethless 1870 or whatever the hell you do. There is a paradox that exisits in that on the one hand, we have such a grave dearth of data in terms of sample size, but on the other hand, there is data saturation with respect to the sample that we do work with. Its important to set boundaries so you don't endure "paralysis by analysis" and spend more time sorting data than you actually do forecasting. I have noticed that you tend to exhaust yourself with ENSO composites, which is something that I have moved away from because if anything, ENSO is growing less preavlent as a seasonal driver. ENSO is the foundation of the seasonal house, metaphircally speaking....we have a finite amount of time to complete this seasonal work and if you spend 2 months polishing the foundation, you're going to build an inferior house.

I consider ONI, MEI and RONI.

Old man winter's schlong

What's 6.5 degrees between weenies

1999-2000 was one of my stronger winter analogs and it offered plenty of value in hindisight, but its a good example of why seasonal forecasting is so difficult. One needs to detemrine not only which seasons offer value and what said value is, but what the main driver(s) will be during the ensuing winter season. In this case, the EPO was the primary driver and in played an instrumental role in why this season was signfiicantly colder than '99-'00. This is is primary reason why I was too warm this past season. La Nina behaved similarly (Modoki), albeit weaker (expected) and the polar domain evolved in a like manner, which was foreshadowed well by the westerly QBO high solar research.

I expect more guidance to lean in the direction of the CFS as we progress through the spring and into the summer/fall.