40/70 Benchmark

Maybe Chris is right and I will never see more than 65" in a season again...I understand why he thinks that way...I'm just not convinced yet, but it's far from a non-zero threat.

Yes, all I was saying is that they are always the same ideas....which is why I know what the data presented will reveal by seeing who is presenting it. There are plenty of people on the other end of the spectrum (cold, snow) and they also take shit.

I like the insight you bring...all I'm saying is that you only seem to present the same ideas. It's not just you, either. I have tried to improve on that by thinking about alternative outcomes and data that supports it. I was just teasing you, but its not an issue that is relegated to you at all.

You nervous about tonight?

Thank god....should be the last of the 80s until April or May, not counting Xmas eve.

I think the ACE could still finish near normal. But ike I said, I will gladly take a repeat of 2022-2023 with a compromise PNA between that year and last year. I feel that would be pretty good for my area.

I agree, Chris...this season will probably be warmer with a more negative PNA, but we are still going to get pretty pronounced +PNA period(s) IMHO.

I already knew the answer once snowman asked about it...like I said. I wasn't really joking. Like the NAO data he posted....looked at the poster and knew it was data that supported a +NAO. I like the guy, but the fact of the matter is that you can't go wrong using that crude method of data analysis. Just look who is posting it and save yourself the time. It's like my 5 year old daughter...she only asks questions when she eagerly anticipates the answer. (After hearing how good of a girl she was all day)..."daddy, am I going to get ice cream because I was a good girl"? =Hmmm...MJO looks to enter the MC phases at a pretty low amplitude..."Chris, how does your MJO indicator look so far"?

Call me crazy, but I just assumed it wasn't off to a great start since you were asking about it.

We agree on that...ceiling is still higher than that for Boston.

Well, that settles that-

I would agree with the boded even independent of GW. I don't expect 100" in a month again anytime soon. As far as your transition period statement...I agree RE the increased moisture impact, but I still think we need more time to definitively say that the ceiling is lower...especially north of metro NYC.

Yes, thanks. I often get those two seasons mixed up. 1978-1979 stunk up here, too....we missed PD I, but it wasn't record low. Obviously I understand that these earlier, record lean snowfall seasons were colder......but my point is that I think we need to wait a little longer than a mere decade after a near all-time season to conclusively say that our ceiling is declining here in SNE. I'm not saying that it definitively is not...just to be clear. I am saying that we do not yet know and I need more time to decide.

I am not denying CC....we are warming, but I think some are getting a bit carried away with the attribution piece...especially considering the majority of GW impacts radiational cooling nights. Yes, storm days are also warming...but not to the same degree as the former. Now, if the 2030's are as lean as the 2020s, then I will capitulate to greater attribution. Now tell me, Chris...what would need to happen for you to question the attribution piece? Another all-time season seems like a rather lofty bar, no??

My record lowest season is 19.9" in 1979-1980...hell, I had only 20.3 in 1988-1989, 28.2" in 1990-1991, 26.6" in 1991-1992 and 22.5" in 1994-1995.....about 23" in 2011-2012; yet in this new, warmer climate, I have managed at least 32.5" in every season since 2018-2019. Thank god for the increased moisture of CC.

Here is a radical suggestion.....hear me out....maybe, just maybe....all-time record snowfall seasons don't grow on trees and are kind of anomalous?? Just a thought- This harkens back to my point about how there is nothing that could happen that would ever change your mind....had we never set those records, it would be because of CC....now, since we have set them and haven't kept up with that record pace.....it's because of CC. Any guesses on how it would be rationalized if we do it again....."well, it won't happen again in this newer and even warmer climate". You will use that higher record to rationalize that CC is why we have't topped it yet again.

No...reflection event mid January...the warming is after that...anytime from later in January into mid Feb. This is just based on my analogs and research....don't mean to speak in absolutes or sound arrogant. Odds are I am wrong.

Yes.....GW must be to blame for not having a top 3 all-time snowfall season over the past 9 years. In fact, if I can't score a 40" event this season, then that solidifies it in my mind. No doubt-

My point is I'm not convinced we won't see that again. If anything, it's been more common the last 30 years...we just did it 11 years ago. What was the return rate on it pre 1994? We don't know because it had never happened.

This jives with my thoughts for January, as my analogs have a stratospheric reflection event getting underway around mid month, which will trigger strong AK ridging and a +TNH pattern, but those reflection events are preceded by Pacific trough patterns....hence +EPO.

I think that is pretty unlikely independent of GW.....that was an incredibly anomalous stretch that included 2 all-time record snowfall seasons. Let's not get trigger happy with GW attribution.

Well played, sir.

TBH, I do the opposite...my final forecast compoisite will be derived from 1951-2010 climo, but I will label it as 1991-2020 in an effort to account for CC. I started doing that last year.

This is true, although the late 80s and early 90s were petty comparable in terms of snowfall....obviously not temps. No debate there.

I understand your argument...I just don't fully agree with it. I think part of this unfavorable storm track is regression to the mean after getting high off of a decade that dealt 40" winters out like crack. And I am convinced that even if NYC gets 50" in another winter, you won't change your mind. It will be "they are done now in this new and even warmer, climate"....keep kicking the can.