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Early Season Lake Effect and Clippers


Geos

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It looks like this coming week will feature lake effect rain and snow throughout our subforum as well as a couple Clippers that have the chance to produce a little snow at least in the air, if not on the ground in a few locations.

 

Clipper one goes by to the north across northern WI and upper Michigan - maybe northern lower MI as well.

 

gfs_namer_033_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif

 

And the 2nd Clipper, 18z GFS

 

 

Snowfall predicted on that run.

 

GFS_3_2013101918_F78_SNOWIN_SURFACE.png

 

 

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12z GFS still spitting out up to 3" in northern IN Tuesday evening, per TwisterData:

 

GFS_3_2013102012_F66_SNOWIN_SURFACE.png

 

But the raw data from RZL (Rensselaer, which is pretty much in the middle of that 3" contour) shows 925 mb temps at or above freezing the whole time.

 

http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=KRZL

 

So I'm skeptical of anyone seeing more than just flakes in the air. 

 

(Of course, just having flakes in the air a week and a half before Halloween is awesome.)

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also...  (from LOT)

NOTE...THE GFS FEATURES 2 INCHES OF SNOW
OVER CHICAGO TUESDAY. GROUND TEMPERATURES ARE STILL VERY WARM ACROSS
THE REGION SO IF SNOW WERE TO FALL...NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATION.  FOR INSTANCE...AT THE OFFICE THIS MORNING...OUR 4
INCH SOIL TEMPERATURE WAS 50F.
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12z Euro pretty far south and very weak with the Tue clipper.  Don't think any one model has a true handle on this wave yet, but the fact that the Euro agrees with the NAM is interesting.  Wouldn't be surprised if we see a complete whiff with this system here, but at least there is still some potential. 

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12z Euro pretty far south and very weak with the Tue clipper.  Don't think any one model has a true handle on this wave yet, but the fact that the Euro agrees with the NAM is interesting.  Wouldn't be surprised if we see a complete whiff with this system here, but at least there is still some potential. 

 

EE rule in effect for the first possible snow of the year.

 

 

EDIT: GFS is showing cold as far as the eye can see, with a particularly cold shot near the end of the month.

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12z Euro pretty far south and very weak with the Tue clipper.  Don't think any one model has a true handle on this wave yet, but the fact that the Euro agrees with the NAM is interesting.  Wouldn't be surprised if we see a complete whiff with this system here, but at least there is still some potential. 

 

18z NAM just misses you. Maybe some flurries if your lucky. I'd be siked to just get a quick snow shower!

 

cld48.gif

 

12z GFS. Thinking if this clipper is going anywhere, it will be north.

 

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DVN mentioned there's some decent saturation potential in the DGZ, so I'm going with closer to 10 flakes.

 

18z GFS still fairly bullish with the system FWIW.

 

 

It's certainly an impressive early season clipper/cold shot...whole pattern has a mid-winter look.  Hopefully it's transient...I'm just not in the mood until after turkey day.

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Been way too long since we saw a front sided winter. To have the possibility this early makes me excited but the east cost had a massive Halloween blizzard for the 10-11 season beginning... We all know what happened next.

 

Never the less blade and salter will be ready on at least one truck tomorrow night. ;-)

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CLE's zone forecast for Cuyahoga County (Cleveland) is at least somewhat interesting for mid-week:

Tuesday Night: Rain or snow showers likely or a chance of thunderstorms. Lows in the upper 30s. West winds 5 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation 70 percent.

Wednesday: Showers...snow showers likely with a chance of thunderstorms. Highs in the mid 40s. Chance of precipitation 70 percent.

Wednesday Night: Cloudy with a chance of rain and snow showers. Lows in the mid 30s. Chance of precipitation 50 percent.

Thursday: Cloudy with a chance of rain and snow showers. Highs in the mid 40s. Chance of precipitation 50 percent.

Thursday Night: Cloudy with a chance of rain and snow showers. Lows in the mid 30s. Chance of precipitation 50 percent.

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The northern solution is the way to go.

 

The question is what's the flake-age potential... The event in the Plains a few days back is a good benchmark for what you want...Mod-heavier precip, temps in the low to mid-30's and sub-32F wet bulb temps and DP's. The GFS and now the NAM also shows exactly this. Have that work out and someone will see some sort of accumulation, if not a T is the best you will do.

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