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Interesting. I have been very skeptical of claims that HTHH caused climate warming. Never heard of a volcanic eruption producing a significant warming effect prior to 2022.
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I don't buy it. Hunga Tonga Hunga Ha'apai was a VEI of 6 [or at least high end 5]. Prior to 2022, all available science said strong volcanic eruptions cause cooling, not warming. I have read in the past where a series of eruptions or flood basalt eruptions can lead to climate warming over time, but not ephemeral warming. Instead, they lead to sustained warming over long [geological] timescales from increased atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations. Unless someone can provide proof from the geological record of a volcanic eruption causing warming, I am going to assume HTHH led to climate cooling and it would have been even warmer over the past couple of years in the absence of the volcano.
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May 2024 Discussion - Welcome to Severe Season!!!!
Lava Rock replied to weatherwiz's topic in New England
75/35. She's a beut Clark -
3 swings and misses with showers today. Ducking and weaving.
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80
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Just about everyone in TN is now in the Enhanced risk for Severe storms tomorrow.
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Looks like maybe rain/storm at my house in monkton looking at radar - downtown Baltimore nothing.
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May 2024 Discussion - Welcome to Severe Season!!!!
jbenedet replied to weatherwiz's topic in New England
Looking at most guidance ex the GFS op you can see how odds favor decent weather. GEM makes most sense to me. Even the 12z GEFS has the surface low SE of the BM by 12z Sat. Not buying bs IVT on the GFS. -
thank goodness it will turn cooler starting thursday wearing a hoodie and jacket in these temps is uncomfortable..
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A recent study found that the volcanic eruption had a cooling effect.
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Yeah I agree with Andy on Indiana above. Illinois boundary right now enjoys more instability. However Indiana convergence zone will have a ton of SRH. Plus it'll destabilize too. I have always preferred the eastern of two surface troughs when chasing east of the Mississippi River. Midwest, Mid-South, Deep South. Then more upper level support is over Indiana. Need to catch the right entrance/rear of the upper jet, which is somewhat departing Illinois. Now there's a Plains short-wave coming out, but that is the overnight stuff. Daytime I think Indiana. LLJ also hangs in better Indiana vs Illinois.
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Thats why I said I would cap all hurricanes to Cat 1 and all tornadoes to EF1, up to then it's fun and rare.... anything past 1.... no thank you, Florida can handle it a lot better than we can.
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Sitting right on the IL/IN, like my spot
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79 here now, it's really nice!
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Today and tomorrow look pretty volatile across a fairly large expanse of real estate. Indiana today seems like the best bet for chasing, good recovery going on in behind the earlier line of storms plus winds are staying more backed than the RAP was indicating.
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May 2024 Discussion - Welcome to Severe Season!!!!
Great Snow 1717 replied to weatherwiz's topic in New England
..it's been sssoooo long since there was a day in the mid to upper 40's.... -
May 2024 Discussion - Welcome to Severe Season!!!!
Damage In Tolland replied to weatherwiz's topic in New England
Lol Heat in May? Uninstalled -
Beautiful 77 and clear skies. Perfect May Day
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May 2024 Discussion - Welcome to Severe Season!!!!
powderfreak replied to weatherwiz's topic in New England
I mean sensibly yeah, 53F or 48F. Doesn’t really matter at all. A max in the 50s vs the 40s isn’t a spring celebration. - Today
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My Tempest weather station has a decent lightning detector and sends reliable push notifications.
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it's boring outside
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It’s like if a Cat 4 hurricane is making a beeline at the city. My emotions would be on the fence between intense fear and sheer excitement.
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Let's slow this down by 6 to 9 hours and we're probably getting into something fun.
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