All Activity

I'm pretty under-whelemed about this entire week. I'm sure many of us will hear thunder at some point but it looks pretty meh in terms of any really exciting weather stuff rolling through. We may continue our wait for a pattern that gets stuff to this side of the mountains. Lots of the good parameters so far this spring have looked great well to the west and then died off - and bad timing (as always).

June 2013 too

I remember reading a social psychology/anthropology article in graduate school about this type of persistent cool, damp, and overcast weather being the driving force for the expansion of the British empire. People can't tolerate this, and it is an impetus for relocation to warmer and drier areas.

It's pretty thick out there this morning. 59 degrees.

AccuWeather going with a blow torch summer... 54F/Fog https://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-forecasts/sizzling-summer-ahead-accuweather-issues-2024-us-summer-forecast/1644799?partner=web_patch_adc

To put some objectivity to our pessimism: this year, most in our subforum will have the landscape in a cold season state fall/winter >6 months; i.e, longer than a warm season spring/summer state. First week of November is only 6 months out….

Maybe we get lucky this week and Wednesday through Friday isn't too bad. Weekend's looking a bit better just cool.

Northern half of Mass has some clearing going on..that should give temps a boost this AM. It's also nice to see the satellite imagery progressing west to east, as opposed to NE to SW. I know it's coming back to ruin the latter half of the week and weekend, but no other choice but to soak in the next two days.

very crazy leaf out this year. Obviously started early with the warmth. then stopped and got late with the cold. But I live in a very wooded house and we moved in on 5/1 several years ago, and now relative to past years, we have full blown thick foliage. One of the weirdest springs I’ve seen

Looks great! Going to build some for my yard too. Did you angle the holes upward into into the mail channel, or were they drilled straight in?

Great morning walk with the dog to take in the WAA and to smell all the blooms. Hopefully we clear out later. Temperatures jump 10 to 20 degrees compared to Sunday with ongoing WAA in the resulting SW flow, likely rebounding into the low to mid 70s away from the coast. Should more breaks in the cloud cover develop, temperatures inland could achieve mid to upper 70s.

.56" from yesterday, low of 45F/ now @ 50 overcast

Surprisingly, not a drop yesterday. First we bust badly by an incredible over-performance on Saturday, then we bust badly by an incredible under-performance on Sunday. The weatherman’s job is difficult… .

yeah really thought they'd go enhanced for tomorrow, especially because it looks a bit more potent than wednesday

Sounds like a weather app forecast... there's a reason we nicknamed it fuccuweather

You are missing or ignoring my point. Your county “average” of raw data has less warming than Phoenixville's raw data. Whether it is April, the start of the year, or the annual average shown below. As shown above you are also missing the warming in your own Chescowx raw data series. That's Chesco's two longest sets of raw data. You also ignored the point I made about your station mix changing from warmer S and E to colder N+W, particularly in the last two decades. How can you justify that? You are the guy adjusting our climate data to the wrong result not NOAA.

Interesting thing about 2010-11 which I remember you pointed out is that it was much more like La Ninas of old back in the 1910s which were very snowy and cold-- I wonder why that winter was so much like those winters from over a century ago?

I thought there were explosions happening inside my house because the bright white light outside was so bright it seemed like it came from inside the house. By the second and third time I knew it was outside because the entire sky lit up bright white when it happened and each time my power went out for a brief second and it messed up my cable box which needed to be rebooted and I had to manually turn my computer and TV back on. My UPS also turned off and had to be manually turned back on.

wtf happened last night? it got downright scary here! The power went out here three times in the heavy rain between 1 AM and 2:30 AM! There were very bright flashes visible outside when the power went out each time, the entire sky turned white-- but it was not lightning! The power went out only for a second each time but scary!

Get a different job dude

Northerly flow is normally really good for us for nice sunny dry hot weather in the summer.

For a long time deniers like JB used this as evidence that warming has stopped. What's their excuse now it blew previous values out of the water.

I don’t think they’re not making the decision to upgrade based on something like that. I distinctly remember that there were some caveats with that event in hindsight, most notably the poor low level lapse rates. Monday evening’s forecast environment is high end. Not the high end that we talk about once or twice a season, but more like the highest end we’ve seen in years around here. The 06z HRRR is about as ugly as a model run as I’ve ever seen for Oklahoma and I’m literally having trouble sleeping. 5/20/19 had the “swarm” of small supercells on the HRRR, but this is apples and oranges. The HRRR shows isolated, beastly supercells, no surprise given the background environment. I mentioned earlier that I’m having trouble seeing limiting factors in the environment. Only one model shows weaker low level lapse rates (3km NAM), but even that has seemed to have backed off. Analogs should be used with a grain of salt, but the synoptic similarities to 4/26/91 are legitimate. Two things are going to be key in determining MDT vs. HIGH risk tornado forecast/verification: 1. Where is the corridor of greatest tornado potential? HRRR favors the northern half of Oklahoma, while NAM/WRF models focus in on central to southern Oklahoma. It’s not a matter of if there’s a tornado outbreak, but where the outbreak occurs. Model biases are highlighting the south vs. north divide in the coverage of storms. 2. How many storms (discrete, long lived) are there? Given the background environment and WNW mean upper level flow atop a robust 50+ knot southerly low level jet, it’s a textbook supercell wind profile. Add in the subtle capping, timing of the wave, low level moisture and thermodynamic profiles and pattern recognition screams “tornado outbreak.” If you only have isolated convective development across Oklahoma, you can envision a scenario with a couple of long track tornadic supercells, much like a 4/26/91 type event. I pulled the 00z 4/27/91 OUN sounding and noted some warming around 700-600mb that probably contributed to the lack of sustained supercells with southward extent, effectively sparing the OKC metro area. With tonight’s event, I think just about every model at this point suggests you will get CI down to I-40… but, are the NAM/ARW solutions correct with more numerous CI, all the way down toward the Red River? I mentioned earlier about the NAM showing more of a clustered storm mode, but meteorology warns against that. (Upper level flow just about perpendicular to dryline, residual capping through mid/late afternoon, timing of the wave, etc.) With that said, the HRRR seems to be the outlier now with a dearth of CI across southern Oklahoma. Although the FV3 curiously also showed a lack of CI the south, which is both worrisome and a bit peculiar given the tendency for the model to over-convect. When you have a bonafide extreme environment and models only show sparse convective development, that’s an ominous warning sign that any storms that due form have a high likelihood to be strong/intense. At that point, you have to use meteorology and understand that the background environment is favorable over a broad area (much of Oklahoma). Going back to storm coverage, the NAM/WRF models show more storm coverage, including all the way down to the Red River with the 12km and 3km NAM. In my experience, given respective model biases, a compromise between the NAM and HRRR is going to get you a reasonable idea of what to expect. If you take the 06z HRRR solution of discrete storm modes and blend it with the NAM, which shows more convective coverage, including with southward extent, you probably have a high-risk caliber tornado outbreak over at least a portion of Oklahoma. Again, is the area of focus zeroed in on northern Oklahoma, like 4/26/91, or do we realize an outbreak that extends into and south of OKC, possibly down to near the Red River? That’s your difference between moderate and high risk. You’re not going to see the SPC go high risk for an 18-24 hour lead time for 2-3 tornadic supercells. If they’re a broader corridor that can sustain multiple such storms and if seems like we may be trending toward that, then you can see an upgrade to high risk. From a public awareness perspective, MDT vs. HIGH is almost irrelevant. It only takes one storm to change communities and lives. High risk is not something you should hope for, much like hoping/wishing for EF-5 tornadoes/damage. I’ve lived in Oklahoma since 2016 and I think this is the worst I’ve felt about a forecast in that time frame. I don’t know what else to say at this point. I can’t see much changing. We just need to nail down the coverage of storms and go from there. Hopefully the more intense storms take a track that causes the least amount of damage/destruction. This is ugly as well. Nighttime storms, long tracking, potentially near at least one metro area (OKC) and possibly multiple (Tulsa, maybe even Wichita?). Chaser convergence is already bad enough with any hyped up event in Oklahoma. Sure, at least we don’t expect the tornado threat to target OKC at rush hour, but it’s not like after dark is much better. I hope people, including chasers, take warnings seriously and that everyone stays safe and prepared.

going to be nasty, storms only going to intensify after dark. Kind of a worst nightmare from a chaser perspective too.

Day 3 marginal thread of severe storms.