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Models continue to show some snow with the arctic front Friday night. Looks like a dusting to an inch.

It’s the tenor…been doing it since mid November.

Not that I enjoy refuting Schwartz here, but wasn't the -AO from 2009/10 winter much more sustained, overall? It averaged -3.4 in December, -2.6 in January, and -4.3 in February. The AO actually had a positive average this past December. January is clearly going to be negative, and I'd guess February is, too, but it's flowing positive in the short-term and the rest of the month is TBD. Even in 12/13, there were negative AO departures from October to March.

I still think about the what if of this last weekends storm. Just a small change in the overall pattern and that’s a MECS/HECS for us. With the frozen temps and lack of snow melt we’ve had I have no idea where we would have put the snow. It would have been a really serious emergency…..man I would have loved to see it lmao

HRRR looks a bit more north even Philly gets in on it.

I just mistook water dripping off my roof for flurries. They should probably issue a Special Weather Statement on that

We have had filtered sun all day and it only hit 45 so far but the snow is melting fast. Our street gets full sun and it is very slushy with some bare spots now. Bottomed at 17 this morning. I finally cleared most of my double car driveway except for 1 mound where I had no place to put the snow.

Not excited to reveal the buried treasures left behind by the dogs since mid-January.

As far as I can tell, it looks like everyone has gotten above freezing, so at least no ice to deal with this evening.

Bncho already made one and its pinned

Are we going to do another thread for the Friday thing? Maybe just add it here? Soundings look snow squally.

As RitualOfTheTrout has said, we're going to enter a relaxation period with the AO shooting back toward positive, the PNA coming down toward -1, and the NAO block relaxing, as well. Looks like my transition period storm isn't quite evident, at least not yet. We'll see if anything pops up before midweek aside from the clippers. There's another potential threat around Valentine's/President's Day weekend. Everything remains in flux after President's Day. The AO hints at going right back down, but the long-range MJO might enter hostile territory (warm phases). The ensembles do show another warm-up after President's Day. I would guess it is only temporary, if it happens at all. Long-range warm looks have failed this winter, but the pattern will reshuffle and might wobble until something takes over.

Even got a few lightning strikes on the front end:

Storm mode soon

Returns already overhead and the temperature is still over 45 degrees out. Might be a bit of a rainy start.

I'm not over the cold (never will be), but agree I'd risk warmer weather if it meant some actual moisture, some of which actually falls as snow. We need the moisture regardless, but rain right now is not going to be soaked into the ground, unfortunately.

Goofus says what torch..

Afternoon AFD from LWX KEY MESSAGE 2...A potent winter storm with multiple hazards is likely to impact the region Friday into the weekend. A potent upper trough and Arctic cold front are set to track across the region Friday into the weekend. Ahead of the front, a leading shortwave trough quickly traverses our area during the day Friday, which could bring a burst of snow east of the Alleghenies. Accumulating snow along/east of I-81 will have to contend with more marginal temperatures in the low to mid 30s. However, the strong cold air advection and substantial lift in the DGZ could possibly overcome any marginal temps at the surface. Stay tuned to the forecast in the coming days for any possible impacts from snow on Friday. For the mountains, a steady period of moderate to possibly heavy snow is possible, with several inches of accumulating snow being noted in much of the model guidance. Additionally, the increasing winds will lead to blowing snow and reduced visibility issues. Snow squalls are possible Friday evening into Friday night as the base of the upper trough slams into the Alleghenies. This is a very favorable synoptic setup for upslope snow, though it is going to be short-lived as forcing quickly departs, and moisture is more limited due to abundant ice cover on Lake Erie and Lake Huron. As the upper trough digs right over our area Friday night, it is likely to induce a sudden onset of windy conditions, especially in the wind-favored climo areas (mountains & along/north of I-66). The 500mb height fields in the ECMWF and GFS show intense ripples within a very sharp gradient over the Appalachians - a signal that usually leads to mixing of stronger winds aloft with northwesterly downslope winds. Most of the guidance has wind gusts of 35-45 mph across the area, with 45-55 mph in the mountains. Higher gusts are noted in the ensemble guidance, thus Wind Advisories and High Wind Warnings may eventually be needed for parts of the area. Frigid temperatures return to the area for this weekend, with highs in the teens to 20s each day (maybe getting to around freezing in parts of central VA). Lows Saturday morning drop to the teens, then likely see single digits to low teens areawide for Sunday morning. Wind chills are going to be in the low single digits to -5F or lower each night, with -10F to -20F in the mountains. Interestingly, the GFS has a progressive clipper passing through on Sunday that could bring additional light snow, but confidence in that is very low given model uncertainty. Otherwise, dry and cold conditions prevail this weekend into the start of next week.

Inverted trough.

NAM snatched from X

Looks like starting midweek next week we start seeing a lot more highs above freezing.