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Looks like all of us mix in the afternoon. But should be some good damage done by then.

Seems like a "mixed" verdict

Go to mixing Sunday between 1pm-7 location dependent and then back to snow 1am Monday it seems .

Last panel of precip

18z

Done by 105

Looks a bit warmer from what I can tell

I actually kind of want a ZR storm. I want to take some sweet pics.

Updated

It's more amped. Powerfreak gets crushed up at Stowe. That's usually not great for our area.

its still cold enough i guess at 16z

Don't have precip type maps..so do with that what you will

It’s only our to hour 54 from what I can see and a lot of people are asleep lol. But ya the EURO AI would bring some sleet to the area around hr 93-96

Only out to hr 66. No real changes

Expecting the power to go out here in Lake Norman area around Sunday night. Sleet to 24 hours of freezing rain sucks.

H48

This is the kind of NAM sounding that makes me nervous about sleet on Sunday. It's valid at 12z Sunday morning about 50 miles NW of Richmond, VA. Super cold surface & 850mb temps with 700mb temps -2C or -3C and the ptype is SLEET because of a pronounced warm layer near 750mb. The surface high can't save us from that. If the upper levels are amped and the mid-level lows which will track to our west are slow to weaken, our sounding could end up looking like that on Sunday afternoon/evening. That would be a bummer considering the depth of saturation through that column... would be a lot of QPF wasted as sleet.

Euro looks nearly identical to 12z at 42 on the 500vort

81. Precip shield appears a lil more flatter..just a little

The fact that the EURO has been running for about 10 minutes and no one has really said anything is saying something.

Here she comes

Real question every post you mention Scott. Do you know him?

I would think the AI models get all the same data the physics models do, except instead of feeding a physics engine they feed an LLM. If that map is right then it seems that the AI has definitely gone with the WV primary idea, which is not great news.

Hit -1 yesterday morning so it's good to get that out of the way for this Winter. I just got back from a long journey into the Main Forum. Such an odd place. Everyone seems to reference where they live as the only place that exists in current setups and past winters. It's good to be home.