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Yep. This is the kind of storm I've often seen when I was a kid. PA gets the most snow while we mix. I was jealous of State College then. But they've had a terrible, terrible run at snowfall in recent years. Like, worse than us.

We knew that would likely show up at some point. NAM... see you at 12Z

These amounts seem more likely than the map they had earlier.

That’s climo.

ABC27 going on the lower side while my NWS is 15-22 snow

Yeah I’d feel good with 12-18 forecast but not good about brushing 18”+ over anyone. I do think the south shore and Cape Ann have a pretty decent shot though with the extra OES enhancement. Still uncertain about how efficient monday is….on one hand, we’re synoptically dryslotted, but OTOH, you are literally in the DGZ sfc-700mb so it might not matter that much if you can generate some steady light precip…you could stack another 4-6” with maybe a quarter inch of QPF.

I had almost 10" of cold smoke last January. No mix, no drama. Just a beautiful snow followed by cold. I'm just frustrated as always watching pa get crushed by our storm lol

As someone who works overnight the hardest part about this storm may be how I will not miss the morning/afternoon show lol.

How do they come up with these maps? I ask because how it has that tear drop of 12" over Dover Delaware. I've never seen that before.

probably why ALY took totals down a bit here, and I'm still sticking with 10-14 here anyway, we'll see how the next 24 hours look model wise, but no closed low has me concerned about long duration and CCB type snow of any real accum..

That may be, but your backyard is still well within the 8-10” range before a flip. Of course that could still change, but you haven’t received that much in a single storm in 10 years.

Now the GFS gives southern Louisiana across Mobile, and all of the Florida panhandle 8-12 inches of snow with 0 warm nose issues 150 miles north of the low. Yet here we see 850s shoot to 50 degrees with a low 1000 miles south of us. It finishes off with a band of ocean effect snow that sends 2-4 inches from Tampa Bay down towards south Central Florida. While this clearly shows that the GFS probably needs to be decommissioned and a new model launched in its place, I wouldn't be shocked if it came true.

That would be a KU blizzard

Next sunday

6z GFS for this 24 hr period and its still snowing in some spots. Not taken literally cause its next weekend but something to watch again... lol

Mt. Holly cut back totals over SNJ.

6z GFS is big time for Feb 1

Damn….this isn’t even all the way out there in fantasy land.

Forky likes that storm

Holy crap at the 06z GFS fantasy storm.

Looks like everything held overnight. Good stuff. The winter storm warning says 10-14”.

My forecast now calls for 2-4 inches of snow, plus .2-.4 zr. No warning issued though.

Updated percentage chance of hitting or exceeding 8” snowfall before flipping. For reference, DCA is at the 50% threshold.

Neither Jeff nor I even have a watch up. There's always this though from the GYX AFD: The mere proximity to this moisture advection will mean a powerful conversion when the cold airmass overhead can support snow to liquid ratios north of 15 to 1. NBM mean brings values towards 18-20 to 1 into the region.

It's pretty clear that DC and east is going to be a massive sleet bomb. Such a bummer. Record cold and still can't snow lol.