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Yep, looking like a blow torch early January.

Wouldn’t it blow EmassWx winter forecast all up if winter ended next week?

Week 3 plus…toss. They sucked ass last year.

It kinda still is, looks like it warms as the evening goes on. At least in my area it’s gonna be 50 at midnight on the 25th into the 26th.

British Columbia with the mic drop lol

But I thought…

I’d be cautious about tossing it.

Off hour runs again…but hey, as TBlizz said the other day, it’s what it shows.

Have to agree with you there…they were horrible last year. And anything past week 2 is a complete joke anyway imo..no matter what it shows. So, as of now, toss that January look is right.

Temperatures will moderate for tomorrow through Friday. Thursday and Friday will be mild days with the mercury approaching or reaching 50° in parts of the region. A soaling rain is likely Thursday night and Friday. Much of the region could see a general 0.50"-1.50" of rain. Behind the storm, the weekend will turn somewhat cooler. The probability that December 2025 will have a maximum monthly temperature below 60° is increasing. The last time that happened was in 2019 when the monthly high was 58°. If 2025 has a monthly high below 60°, that would be only the fifth such occurrence since 2000 (2003, 2004, 2005, and 2019 are the cases since 2000). The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.7°C for the week centered around December 10. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.33°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.67°C. La Niña conditions will likely continue through at least mid-winter. The SOI was -0.88 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.524 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 97% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal December (1991-2020 normal). December will likely finish with a mean temperature near 34.3° (4.8° below normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 3.1° below the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

Not always that simple- Depends on the orientation of the ridge/trough combo. There was positively tilted ridge and a less meridional trough underneath allowing for a somewhat flat PNA ridge beneath that.

One way to look at it, sure is nice to have the cold air close by. Its seems like we haven't had that for years.....But on the flip side, that is a lot of warm air nearby as well. So yes, there will most likely be a lot of have and have nots moving forward. Hopefully since we have suffered for the past 4 years, hopefully this sets up somewhere in PA and we can all rejoice. But I as well as many know it doesn't work that way, soooo.....We watch

That's a great pattern for the Donners @ Donner Pass.

Carver, that's good news if true! Op runs and ensembles will show a colder outcome if it's legit. If not, it won't imo.

The anomalously strong Aleutian ridge(+EPO/-WPO combo)/downstream deep trough along the west coast is the thorn in our side as advertised going forward, despite indications of a negative NAO developing. A positive sign on all the extended products is a shift in the NPAC pattern with a -EPO developing towards mid Jan, which could be the mechanism to deliver colder air into the central/eastern US going forward.

I think what we will see is the MJO slide into phase 6 as the NAO fires. The mid continental ridge will hook into it briefly. That will create a significant SSW. The MJO will slide into 7-8 as the CHI charts showed over the weekend. The entire cold air mass gets released into a full latitude trough over the US w/ the storm track south of the Ohio River Valley. Good sign if it holds. The NAO will work against us at first, but as it matures...that is when it pays off.

Yeah. There’s your real wooly bear sign right there. Fat squirrels have nothing on him.

From what I know, a major player in the cold outbreak for the first half of December was the -WPO. I would think this means we want a -WPO, but I’m not 100% sure whether that’s the case, so someone smarter can answer that.

Weeklies are trash . Recall how abysmal they were last winter. Even earlier in Nov they were not nearly cold enough for December. Absolute trash . Toss

18z gfs with a 1-3” deal on Christmas

We want a neutral, or positive WPO, correct?

18z gfs gives him 1-2” around Christmas.. 18z gfs is cold and active almost like the pattern we were just in just further north. 6 disturbances coming down from Canada after the Friday Grinch. Maybe we will be the new “Virginia from the first half of December”.

Wow. If that NAO is real on the 18z GFS, it very well could force split flow...and you kind of see it at the end of this run. That will completely upend modeling over the next few days if legit. That would be a major player. The 12z AIFS and 18z GFS now have this.

It is also more than 2 weeks until the start of January.

Theres only so many ways a turd can be polished