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That is the one lol. I've been using analogs more every year to help build a picture of what is possible and what is likely. I wish I could pull euro/eps analogs. CPC uses a superensemble for their lists but those focus on longer range stuff like 1-2 weeks out. Once inside of that window, CIPS has the best bit they only use the gfs op and output is only as good as input haha. I've realized that analogs are a really good tool at identifying threat windows out in time. They also help temper my expectation when threats pop up in a hostile period. I've come to expect threats to pop up on ops when CPC analogs are lit up in the 1-2 week range. Once a threat moves towards the mid range, cips really helps narrow down what we're dealing with.

https://share.icloud.com/photos/0aexGjbDeaqCv2_wvXrur1TYw

In my own defense I could point out that I need to have a road atlas handy any time there's a big storm and reports pouring in, I have no earthly idea where most places without a professional sports franchise might be located.

Welp, here we are again. Why oh why do we torture ourselves?

-SN, 9.7/-1.3°F, Looks like another 2" to add over the last 2 hrs when rates picked back up, 17.5".

17.1 0.9 1.0 can we round up

Absolutely. Remember the storm and Terps loss only too well.

With yesterday's storm we are now at 34.1" of snow for the season. This is 9th most snow we have received through the end of January. We have continuous and consistently reported snow records for the below 3 stations since 1888. Average seasonal snowfall through the end of January is 16.4". The remaining average snowfall for February through April is an additional 19.3". The average seasonal snowfall is 35.7". Below are the top 10 years along with the final snow totals for the season.

Just got back and ran through the 18z suite. In summary:

Having 1996 & 2016 in there is eye opening. We are so close here to having a big one. Trends need to continue tonight

Wonder if we should keep this open for Saturday's storm? Gonna be a lot of heart break again. Or should I start a new one?

Right?! But seeing the evolution of some the members did give me flash backs to Boxing Day 2010 and late January 2015. Seeing a couple more southern VA and NC snow storms shows those southern tracks too. It shows the true top end of what could happen here as you eluded to. It also shows the misses, and at this range, they should be plausible scenarios. Unless we see those same norther S/W trends we saw last week for the recent weekend storm. Then perhaps we are talking something more impactful forum-wide.

Let’s do it in 7 days

I think it was about this cold at one point last winter. Couldn't tell you a date though. I've been down to -6 this season already. Sent from my Pixel 10 Pro using Tapatalk

With yesterday's storm we are now at 34.1" of snow for the season. This is 9th most snow we have received through the end of January. We have continuous and consistently reported snow records for the below 3 stations since 1888. Average seasonal snowfall through the end of January is 16.4". The remaining average snowfall for February through April is an additional 19.3". The average seasonal snowfall is 35.7". Below are the top 10 years along with the final snow totals for the season.

wow, congrats we've only had a 20 burger here like twice in the last 30 years. some day....

Thanks man! I had a new guy with me Sunday. Was difficult to get any pictures or even get away for coffee. Ultimately, I just said, “ You stay here. I will bring you snow. Put it over there”. And tomorrow is day two of cleaning up. All that said, I couldn’t have gotten better results being solo. And I kinda like teaching the up and coming folks. He’s a good listener, when the earbuds aren’t in, takes criticism well, and owns up to his mistakes. He damaged some stuff, nothing major, all can be fixed in house. On the plus side, I found a hydraulic leak on my truck plow today that has been leaking some time undetected. Reservoir holds 2 quarts. I added 40 oz. Not lol gotta flip or replace a cutting edge on our push box, add some snow stakes since my regular plow buddy is still out due to surgeries and refuel, re grease and re fit for what should and hopefully be a much deserved banger for our area. Bring back summer school!!

North Carolina's biggest storm. And Norfolk got crushed.

How the hell does DCA only have 8.5" lol

Lucy whet her appetite and is hungry for more victims

You've made 45 posts. I'm pretty sure that at least 30 have the word "whiff" in them. I sincerely hope you aren't here to be a troll.

Is that reading colder than all of last year?

Loving these beautiful parachutes coming down with this final gasp. Just took these shots a little while ago and it’s just so peaceful out with the freshly fallen snow. Gonna have to go out one more time in the morning to shovel but I’m so happy this baby stayed all snow. What a great storm all around and one that was totally overdue for us humble folks on the coastal plain!

Was 19.5 at 3:30. Probably near 22

Alarming EPS members/spread orientation. Between that, together with the bump NW over prior cycle … clearly this wants to be W