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The 18z HRRR tries to bring the clipper in a little further west initially with a band of snow from Scott Co Tn, through to about Maynardville and points east.

I know we've hashed this out before, but my buddy's place is a little under 4 miles east of the Tioga/Potter border and a little over 3 miles SSE of Gaines, close to 2,000'.

I’ll be watching from Henderson, NV. It’s gonna suck having 65-70 degree temps and sunshine. But honestly, I do want a snowstorm…just don’t think it’s physically possible in our region without a more active southern stream.

You really need to be outside of 495 and north of I-84 to get higher than 50/50 chances for White Christmas climatologically in SNE. ORH was around 60-65%. Obviously recent years have been bad. I think last year in 2024 is the only White Xmas in the 2020s. For ORH, then you have: 2019, 2017, 2013, 2012, 2010, 2009, 2008, 2007, 2005, 2002, 2000. You could maybe count 2020 on a technicality (the snow wasn’t 100% wiped out by 12z which is the measurement time but certainly by 18z it was) So we’re sitting at about 50% since 2000.

From what I can gather from CAPE and Psu's posts...for this particular kind of setups 60 hours is far away. Best not to get any hopes up on anything given the balancing act going on. I'm counting it as partial fantasy until we get to at least Saturday.

I couldn't tell you why I think that's unusual, except in looking at these sorts of images over the past few years, that looks odd.

I’ll take .25” of liquid, fluff it up and give me 4”…that’d be fun.

That is a very unusual water vapor image IMO:

Moving from the overpriced cluster f of MoCo to SW VA is looking like a forward-thinking, winning decision.

I know but with such a narrow band of precipitation, still enough time to shift. someone into misery or into snow heaven.

This is the 80’s to a frieken T! Something would always go wrong, and sabotage a good system, and now we are right back to it again.

Already coming down nicely where I am in Grinnell. Coating on most surfaces. Very happy with this pattern, unfortunate it has to end after this week.

Don’t really know since it has become such a persistent feature since the 2018-2019 winter.

I mean, this is the sacred and rare clipper, seem like it's been since the early 2000s that I remember a no muss no fuss clipper.

Yep good point, strong winds break apart the flakes which causes poor ratios.

I'm halfway ready to pop an obs. thread for tomorrow. I'll play it safe and wait until around 7PM and see how things look.

Bring me some snow, Holston.

Most of the soundings on other guidance has a really deep saturated snow growth layer too. This one has good ratio potential if we can just get that lift in here.

Sure enough, streamers been going right over that area. Multiple periods of whiteout on my buddy's cam. Awesome stuff.

When do you think this fast Pacific flow pattern will ease up a bit? Back in the 2010s, there used to be bowling balls traversing the US when there was this much cold air. Now; we’re stuck with clippers. Only have had to shovel snow a handful of times since 2020.

If you take the 15z RAP verbatim,, I call 1-2" tomorrow for Kingsport, Bristol, and JC. Heading to Boone in the AM, so hopefully I get in on the action too!

It’s like 60hrs out and starts Saturday night it’s not that far it’s like two and a half days.

There’s a few here that are focused on qpf amounts. This thing is a big fluff bomb .

brutal torch - dry fopa - cad combo there hard pass

We saw this EXACT thing happen already in this short winter. I referenced my erroneous Nov 21st post yesterday(which caused some confusion). Let's see if the Euro stays with that solution. But the 12z Euro is a great example of what happens when things don't stall or feedback over the Pac NW. I have little doubt the GFS is having trouble in that region, but I don't remember it having feedback issues w/ troughs there. It does have some issues with building up cold air masses in the Canadian Rockies front range and then not kicking it out. But w/ the comparison I had above w/ the snowfall amounts vs AIFS, the GFS is an outlier at this time. Now, it can snow out there big time, but it really is out on a limb. When the trough doesn't stall there, it "should" kick out which it did on the Euro. The bad thing about that possible error is that it absolutely wrecks LR ext (weeklies) until it gets fixed. And if we are looking at 1055 HPs coming out of Canada, that would explain the models bouncing around.