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Yeah exactly. I felt bad for Tblizz as I pounded and Tblizz was watching an ocnl flake fall from the street lights.

I think it would be a lot better if we saw *something* here this month. Ideally, if NYC saw 4”+ we would Be in ok shape because 4” is the magic number. That being said, lots of signs for a warm up after rhe 20th

Most won’t appreciate how anomalous of a signal it is to see accumulation outputs on models for the South Mountains and Brushy’s.

No one . Made up

Let’s get some snow first so we can torch it away.

If ifs and buts were candy and snow, we'd all have a merry Christmas.

EPS and AIFS-EPS both perked up

same general premise as 1/6/22 if you recall. that was a nice little Arctic wave

More than a coating out here! Hope it juices up more for the metros though and/or you all get a decent hit Sunday.

Let's lock it in and get the golf courses open. I'll pick up Tblizz's canceled ski week reservations for a song.

I applaud that you are very even keeled and stick your guns even though your thoughts might differ from the consensus.

Wouldn't mind a little warm up if it means recentering the mean trough west of here so we can get some big dogs. Mid December 2013 warmed up prior to the epic period that followed. This pattern is cool in like January or February to maintain..

Im assuming we get the warm air faster as usual so im not expecting much tomorrow. This weekend looks intriguing though.

Yeah this is roughly where the developing SPV and shortwave trough, that eventually slides under it, are right now. There’s lots of little tweaks in the flow that could help this or hurt this in the coming days. As others have said, the end result is we want more “curl” of the vortmax so we can punch that dPVA further north.

In this darkest time of year, let the Euro be your guiding light

Ideally we get a little finger fronto well ahead of this as this tries to round the bend in the OV. Of course that means initially only a narrow area has fun, but good way to maximize snowfall. Can see some signs of it.

Who called you a hype artist?

Sure does. Can’t remember many years riding the train when I’ve spotted it this widespread this early.

Which is fine...whatever...just didn't see why I got called essentially a hype-artist...don't feel that is the case.

Sounds like a bit of gambler's fallacy also.

Latest Natty Blend.

Stop being reasonable.

Can you post the mean?

It's like clockwork ain't it?

There are other factors like the weakening La nina , MJO , etc.