All Activity

36° here. I’m headed to FL for the week so I haven’t paid much attention to the forecast for here. Doesn’t look too bad though. Cool with some showers?

6z

You've been posting lots of UK runs showing a tropical cyclone lately with nothing coming of it. UK has been just as bad as GFS with its fantasycanes.

0.89” of precipitation yesterday. For all the hype of a big rain event it ended up being a run of the mill damp fall day in Minneapolis with a high of 63. 5-7” rainfall totals across the I-90 corridor of southern Minnesota.

The 5 model blend for Augusta from Monday - Wednesday has dropped from 2.11" to 1.65" since yesterday.

Fall is coming folks.

i had to close my window feeling very chilly inside..

dt wxrisk is convinced a major northeaster is happening next week..

Need to check the UKMET. Now that the CMC has high 500 mb verification scores as well, cant go wrong with that combo!

99L's low-level circulation appears to be tightening up under the moderate convective canopy. There is clearly mid-level spin parked over the LLC now. This should end the named storm drought this morning. How strong it can get before environmental conditions deteriorate by Monday-Tuesday remains questionable. Though you can see the shear axis is positioned dangerously close, just south of the system, made evident by the screaming upper cirrus flow on satellite, I could easily see this topping out around 50-60 kts if it can remain just north if it. SSTs are warm enough, combined with a cold pool aloft, to continue supporting convection in the short term.

It’s part of the same pattern which produced the record 600 dm pattern this week. The strength of that ridge may be key to how much rain we actually get this week. Some of the stronger high pressure models like the OP Euro keep most of the rain offshore this week. Other models like the AIFS and CMC have more rain especially near the coast with weaker high pressure to the north. But like we saw with the blizzard in February, the AI and other models beat the Euro which was too suppressed with the coastal low. So this will be a good test of how the AI models handle warm season wavelengths with East Coast lows.

0z euro wants to hang the precip back over the mountains leaving areas to the east mostly dry. 6z gfs is more uniform in the distribution of a 1-2" rain during the week. Canadian really wants to crank the low along the coast resulting in enhanced rainfall over the area. 3 different outcomes on the table. WPC has a healthy amount of rain.

Finally a nice morning again. Cool with a breeze and lower humidity.

34F.

Yes, in terms of the fall equinox, fall begins Tuesday. Meteorological fall, which is used for climate data purposes, began on September 1st.

We are up to 50 tornado's for Pa. in 2026 US National Weather Service State College PA Favorites ·17 hours ago · A 5th tornado from July 18, 2026 was confirmed today. The EF1 tornado was on the ground for about a mile in Burnside Township, Centre County, PA where it downed and snapped approximately 200 trees What took so long? Reply US National Weather Service State College PA · · Author Joey Schultz The location played the largest role. The damage path was in very thick forest within the Sproul State Forest and near impossible to access on foot. Figuring out if any damage occurred from the storm and then where it occurred was extremely difficult until new satellite imagery came out. When it does not have a human impact, there will be no specific reports nor quick need to fly a drone to scan endless forest for a possibility of occurrence. Then, we needed to reach out to our partners and find someone who was willing and available to fly a drone to locate the damage path based off what we had from satellite imagery.

Buyer beware from KALY: THAT SAID, GUIDANCE IS NOTORIOUS FOR STRUGGLING WITH THE PLACEMENT OF THESE CLOSED UPPER LOWS IN THE MEDIUM TO LONG RANGE, SO CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK OF THE COASTAL LOW IS QUITE LOW. ADDITIONAL FORECAST CHANGES SHOULD BE EXPECTED OVER THE COMING DAYS.

Yeah, while not impressive at all that's still nice to see. Models were hinting that something like that was possible last week and it is coming to fruition. Aside from them traversing through the warm pool east of Japan. They can also be a catalyst to invigorate an Aleutian low. Not saying this one is any of that but in general. We want to see that. So let's see if we can get anything else to do that moving forward. And maybe we can in early October if that trough in east asia is real because the tropical activity probably will be.

"Deterministic and ensemble guidance continues to hint at the potential for a coastal low pressure system sometime Thursday into Friday. However, there is still a fair amount of uncertainty in the details of the pattern that will influence the track of this low. Some solutions feature a low track closer to southern New England while others well off shore. Pretty low confidence at point, but warrants monitoring as it would bring potential for stronger winds, rough seas for the coastal waters and potentially another round of rainfall.

We're not hitting 70 next week. Amazing. Break out the sweaters!

Euro and icon please.

Yeah. It looks like a few showers, drizzly and boring for a week. I wonder what model is correct lol

And the euro is even drier.