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1877-8 followed by cold neutral and then weak La Nina 1888-9 followed by strong La Niña and then weak La Niña But in neither of these cases were they immediately preceded by La Niña like ‘26.

11/30/2025: T (A mix of rain/sleet from the 4am hour through about 9am. Intensity got up to light/moderate intensity at times. Temps: low/mid 30s 12/02/2025: T (Probably had a brief period of sleet w/ rain sometime between 4:30am and 5am when precip started before quickly changing to a cold rain that became moderate at times during the morning.) 12/05-06/2025: 1.4" (Flurries/very light snow starting in the 4am hour intensifying to light snow between 6am and 10am (light/moderate at times). Flurries to very light snow showers continuing through the rest of the morning ending during the 12pm hour. ETA: Another few bursts of sometimes moderate snow with big aggregates between 10:30pm and around midnight or so dropping an additional 0.2".) 12/11/2025: T (A few flakes in the air during the morning on a northwesterly surface wind.) 12/14/2025: 0.9" (Mixed rain/snow starting after midnight on the 14th, changing over to snow sometime during the 3am hour and lasting through about 6:30am. Snow was moderate at times between 4am and 5:45am. It was graupelly in consistency.) 12/26/2025: T (A mix of light rain/sleet between 10:30am and 12pm. It was briefly freezing rain/sleet as temps fell to 31F during the precip.) 1/01/2026: 0.1" (A squall of heavy snow blew through between 5:18am and 5:35am with visibilities dropping to <= 1/4 mile briefly between 5:21am and 5:25am. Note: could have been 0.2" but the wind 25-30mph gusts made it difficult to tell.) 1/11/2026: T (A few wet flakes with a dying snow/graupel squall around 1:30-1:45pm.) 1/17/2026: 0.4" (Flakes started falling around 8:45am. At 8:48am intensity rapidly jumped from flurries to moderate+ within 15 seconds. Between 9-9:05am the snow was fairly heavy at times. Snow tapered off to flurries by 9:15am. There was a snow/graupel mix that briefly got up to light/moderate intensity around 10am. Snow/graupel tapered off by 10:30am as the last flakes concluded.) 1/18/2026: T (Off and on light rain, probably mixed in with mangled flakes predawn (1:30am-6:30am). An afternoon round of flurries between 4 and 5pm.) 1/24-25/2026: 8.0" (Flurries starting in the 11pm hour on the 24th intensifying into a light snowfall after midnight. Snow becoming moderate at times through the predawn hours. Some moderate+ rates in the 6am hour, then light/moderate through 7:30am when sleet mixes in. Back and forth between sleet and snow/sleet mix through 8:10am when sleet takes over for good. Sleet was moderate at times with snow grains mixed in throughout the morning. Waves of heavy sleet moved through during the afternoon (mainly between 1:30pm and 4pm). Sleet continued in light/moderate intensity afterwards until 5:30pm when it became light. Light sleet continued until precip wrapped up around 7pm. Snow grains were mixed in w/ the sleet (especially before 3pm.)) 2/06/2026: 0.3" (Flurries starting after midday becoming a period of light snow between 2:30pm and 4:30pm. Snow tapering off to flurries afterwards and ending by 5:20pm.) 2/07/2026: T ( Flurries/light snow showers associated with a strong cold front that moved through from NW to SE in the 2am hour.) 2/22/2026: 2.6" (Snow starts mixing in with rain around 2pm. More mixes in until it’s a moderate wet snow by 4pm. Snow becomes moderately heavy during the 5pm hour. Snow tapered off to light intensity during the 6 and 7pm hours. Became moderate again with the western snow band by 8pm w/ increasingly gusty winds. Snow lightened up during the 9pm hour and stopped with the exception of a few flurries throughout the night by 10pm.) 3/02/2026: 0.7" (Flurries w/ big flakes starting in the 11am hour w/ bursts of light+ snow from 12-1:30pm. A burst of moderate-mod/heavy snow late in the 1pm hour. Tapers off to flurries 2-3pm before another period of light-light/moderate snow between 3:10-4:30pm. Snow tapers to occasional flurries into the evening before ending.) 3/12/2026: 1.0" (Sleet starts mixing in with rain around 9:30am. Snow starts mixing in by 10:30am. Precip flips back and forth between rain/sleet and rain/snow/sleet until 11:35am when it finally changes into all snow. Snow is moderate/heavy in intensity briefly becoming heavy during the 12pm hour. Snow tapers to flurries by 1pm and ends by 1:30pm.) Snow totals as of June 8th, 2026 (and the snow calendar final total unless Yellowstone erupts ): 15.4" SUPER LATE! I know.

ahhh yes you're right. Comes out of convection which evolves in the upper-Midwest. Certainly can work but...that is definitely more of a long shot,

I hope machine learning ( which is very bullish) regarding severe weather is somewhat accurate. See below: Upper level ridging is expected to build overhead on Thursday, with several models also showing a shortwave disturbance passing through the top of the ridge. How this disturbance evolves will have a large impact on our forecast locally. If the disturbance passes through early in the day, we could have large scale subsidence and relatively low coverage of showers and thunderstorms. If it were to approach at peak heating, we could have a much greater coverage of thunderstorms. Upstream convection will likely have a large impact on how that disturbance evolves, so confidence in the forecast details on Thursday is lower than normal. What models are in good agreement about, is that the background environment will be highly unstable (CAPE values likely in excess of 3000 J/kg). There will also be enough dry air in the mid-levels to support strong downdrafts (DCAPE in excess of 1000 J/kg), and just enough shear (around 20 kt) to give storms some weak organization. Such an environmental setup is common in many of our more impactful summer severe thunderstorm events. As a result, there appears to be a conditional threat for severe thunderstorms on Thursday. That threat for severe thunderstorms may continue on Friday as a shortwave disturbance passes to our northwest through the Great Lakes causing the upper ridge to break down and a surface cold front to approach from the northwest. With greater synoptic scale forcing, confidence in the occurrence of storms is higher on Friday, but instability might be slightly lesser. Machine learning guidance is very bullish on the severe thunderstorms threat for both Thursday and Friday. We will continue to monitor this potential threat over the upcoming days.

Good question. I was going to ask if anyone wants to discuss the snap-back tendency that the historical Strong Nino analog has given us, but I think a lot of attention is on this event because it may end up extreme. I think the Nina snap-back won't be as strong this go around, but it's early. Something to watch is if cold water starts to get going in the western and central subsurface, through the next few months and into the Fall and Winter. The big, long lasting Nina's all had major cold in the subsurface during the height of previous Strong Nino peak. Here is the historical dataset: Climate Prediction Center - Relative Oceanic Niño Index (RONI) 72-73, 82-83, 97-98, 15-16, and 23-24 are your Super Nino's. Subsurface data since 1979 can be found here: Data Display and Delivery | Global Tropical Moored Buoy Array 20c Isotherm depth is probably the easiest variable to hone in on.

Weather got a lot nicer this afternoon. Clouded up and cooled off thankfully.

Anybody got any data pn how often super niños spawn double-dip la ninas?

We go 0.8" in less than an hour, though I don't know how much of that was skewed by the hail.

Not sure it’s actually a shortwave though. Follow it backwards, looks like convectively driven vorticity to me. Don’t get me wrong, it can work, but worried we’re missing the S & L of SLIM.

Here are the Max Temp forecasts

Euro weeklies for July 13-20 lol

That’s a good thought. I didn’t think of that. It seems though the question is the trajectory of that shortwave diving southeast out of Canada and where the front becomes positioned. I am really intrigued by this but I hate how it’s just really the NAM that is showing a robust EML. The euro may be as well but I only have weather models so limited on euro products.

I get excited when there is hail lasting several mins, 85 mins is ott. Same with the cloudburst. Purple rain & lightning glow. Dream shot. Also lasted.

Were they looking at BN op runs on monitors?

Lots of CPC long range forecasts for above average precip in the last month. Let's see if it happens! A lot of times they are actually too early with pattern.

Are we relying on the previous days convection for a trigger?

Today's coyotes for anyone who is interested.

Had to move two turtles across roads today. One was a big 'un snapper lol. Summer!

Yes it does in summer. It would be a Dewey flow. You don’t get 50’s and rains fir days in late June

wet doesn't mean it humid..

Not wet no . If it’s wet, it’s humid . If not it’s 82/55 type stuff

A lot of this gets lost in the miasma of whatever happens in this thread. Thanks and I agree while records could be set if things set up perfectly that contrast west to east is important in overall effects we will see in the CONUS. We have not been able to get the contrast of warm east cool west of the tropical Pacific for awhile. I would like to think a quicker onset of the Nino might play a role in the winter outcome as well.