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- Past hour
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Lights flickering on the Oakland/Wayne border. No wind though. Very unusual.
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SPC has marginal risk out for east tn for 5% damaging winds and 5% hail .
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I didn’t see the radar loop yesterday (8/26) for my area. However, based on radar based rainfall estimates shown by local TV websites and considering Hunter’s 1.27”, I’m roughly estimating my home got a 2nd day in a row of a good hit yesterday with 0.75” (for 8/26). I’m not there to see a measurement. I already very roughly estimated 1.5” the day before (for 8/25). That puts my place at ~~7.25” MTD, a very beneficial wetter than normal being there’s still a moderate drought there lingering per the latest Drought Monitor.
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The relief from the heat was nice, as were the low DPs. Back up into the 70's with current DP. Looks like another extended period AN just as football season kicks off, joy
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Advisories on Tropical Storm Dolly being initiated at 11 o'clock ante meridiem.
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Augdewst 2026: Summer's Last Stand
weatherwiz replied to Prismshine Productions's topic in New England
Agreed. Models too continuing to show enlarging of the hodographs through the day as well with decent instability. -
Augdewst 2026: Summer's Last Stand
Typhoon Tip replied to Prismshine Productions's topic in New England
A little more encouraged re convection today as the orientation of the fields has a better change for residuals chugging E of the ignition region -
Funny, getting classified as the shear leaves it a naked swirl, whereas it was likely a TS most of the night and looked much, much better
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Maybe ORD will snag another 1 or 2. I think they are sitting at 12 for the year. That's gotta be below average I would think.
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https://www.severe-weather.eu/long-range-2/winter-2026-2027-first-forecast-super-el-nino-polar-vortex-snow-cold-united-states-canada-europe-fa/?fbclid=IwdGRjcAT9JoxjbGNrBP0l63Bkb2YFZXh0bgNhZW0CMTEAc3J0YwZhcHBfaWQMMzUwNjg1NTMxNzI4AAEezbLprzeZm_l4j6uPr56iE-akeZ4XeTHsxqlAWZXPbVtqB7lAYJMCHZffT68_aem_PgtonIDoor2992y5PIongQ
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2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino
MJO812 replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
Good read https://www.severe-weather.eu/long-range-2/winter-2026-2027-first-forecast-super-el-nino-polar-vortex-snow-cold-united-states-canada-europe-fa/?fbclid=IwdGRjcAT9JoxjbGNrBP0l63Bkb2YFZXh0bgNhZW0CMTEAc3J0YwZhcHBfaWQMMzUwNjg1NTMxNzI4AAEezbLprzeZm_l4j6uPr56iE-akeZ4XeTHsxqlAWZXPbVtqB7lAYJMCHZffT68_aem_PgtonIDoor2992y5PIongQ -
Coincidentally, the next tropical storm will be named Dolly... we really do live in a simulation.
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The advisory says it's expected to be short lived. So, Dolly is going to be a 9 To 5 storm?
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Nice 9-10”+ rain bullseye for old Ellicott city on the 12z NAM nest
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First advisory on Dolly coming at 11am.
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Augdewst 2026: Summer's Last Stand
tamarack replied to Prismshine Productions's topic in New England
The 2 most recent events that promised widespread rain (a couple days prior to each) totaled 0.15" here, so I'm not very optimistic for today/tomorrow. Probably just enough clouds to block our view of the lunar eclipse. We're about 1-for-10 on lunars, usually due to clouds but sometimes because we don't care to get up at 2 AM to watch. This one peaks here shortly after midnight. -
Those showers in NE MD look more potent on radar then what they really are. I had one of the storm returns go over me and it barely wetten the driveway.
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Augdewst 2026: Summer's Last Stand
weatherwiz replied to Prismshine Productions's topic in New England
Kind of surprised we don't have a marginal tomorrow. I guess that will come at 1730 -
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Now begins real dunes season
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Augdewst 2026: Summer's Last Stand
Typhoon Tip replied to Prismshine Productions's topic in New England
Re the Nepal disaster, if real this is something beyond nuts! stunning is more like it it doesn’t just overtop the dam … the dam, the entire facility, and the surrounding valley are all completely subsumed beneath https://www.instagram.com/p/DchKUP7En1N/?img_index=1 -
- Today
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It's ripping right now. Already 1" of rain and counting rapidly. 1/2 inch fell just in the past 5-10 minutes. Numerous flashes with plenty of thunder. More looks to be starting to develop off to the SW, so we'll see if it takes or remains spotty.
