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can also see the jet beginning to extend in the LR as another MJO wave traverses the MC along with strengthening +EAMT... as this wave enters the WHEM in mid-late Jan, we might have another favorable period

Southern tier from the plains to the southeast is torching. Stronger than expected and retrogressive blocking saved the day for the norther tier from the northern plains east into New England and south to about the Mason Dixon line keeping us near normal or slightly below normal. Without that block some of that warmth would have easily spilled into our area. We got lucky, no Christmas torch this year. Longer range (yeah, I know longer range) is looking foreboding in terms of Arctic Cold. EURO going full bore.

Fun to look at.

I feel like we have seen a handful of pretty H5 animations that haven’t produced however, Fri/Sat could potentially be one of them

Final total 3.2 inches, 11.6 now for the season

Made a difference between my 800' and your 1050'. I should take a ride up the mountain later, over Glen Road, and see how much they got.

Just looking at the cold in the Canadian front range and prairies across modeling at 12z...it sure looks like "when" not "if" that comes roaring into the Lower US. Modeling appears be workout out which front is going to carry it. I would think some snow along the incoming front(whichever turns out to be strongest) seems like an increasing possibility. I think the GFS had -75F at some point late in the run. Likely that is feedback, but if it isn't...we may challenge the NA record at some point during January.

Snow has wound down to some drizzle. 0.6” new.

It has almost always looked like the E US will go warm in the 11-15+ day as illustrated well by the @bluewavepost showing the persistent E US warm bias on the 3 major in the 11-15 day on even the normally cold biased CMC ens averaged out over the last 90 days.

‘92-93 went from a top 5 season to pretty mediocre quite quickly once you got into central CT and southwest. It was actually below normal for snowfall once you got to NYC. Pretty amazing season though for BOS-ORH corridor and northward into your hood.

There are always things to worry about 3+ days out, but this is about as good as it gets for the EPA-NJ-NYC-LI region with regard to model consensus (at the surface). 2-4" shown by all the major globals (Euro, AIFS, GFS, CMC, and UK at least) with potential for 4-7" shown by the AIFS, and GFS (and the others in spots) seems like a good guess right now. I do worry a little about the possibility of a changeover to rain as seen on the CMC up through Philly and SNJ keeping accumulations way down and that possibly even moving further north into CNJ, but that's quibbling...

I fixed my post. Sometimes it's a mistake when you're at work to try to make a post in between work stuff.

Lock it in. Not a single person on here misses out on that solution.

lol this is an absurd shift

oh yeah, yes several. add EPS to that too.

I really hope people aren’t giving up on Friday night for a few inches minimum . Plenty of potential changes to come

Sorry about that, and I'm at work and tried doing a quick post. I just fixed it. Didn't know if it showed us getting several inches, but I wasn't sure if we should trust what we're seeing at this point

12z Euro AI Ensemble 10:1 48-hour total snowfall for Friday-Saturday .

Dude needs to take a break. Sit the next few plays out.

Those echoes over Ottawa/Montreal sliding SSE are building too.

this is pretty comical. NYE is now a legit timeframe to watch with that amplifying trough

It’s been 32 most of the day here so most of what has fallen hasn’t melted except the street that they plowed and over salted. Steady light snow. I’ll be happy with 1-2”. But to reach 2” it’ll have to pick up at least for an hour or two

Well played. I know you know, in fact I think we were talking about it earlier this season, how sometimes you have to make your best educated guess.

He probably meant "significant"...

Replace silent with solid…