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Euro looks nothing like the GFS for Sunday night unfortunately

0z ECM gets about 1" of snow up to NYC on Friday evening. It looks cold enough to accumulate most areas if snow does make it that far north. Not much support at this point, however. The ECM is the northern outlier.

PWM 05z obs - 28/26 -SN 2.3" new 4.4" total

Posted this on 11/23 Where the hell these long range so called weather gurus snow weenies seeing snow for our area on facebook and other media sources and who are just trying to make a few advertising bucks playing up the polar vortex bs but the current models are sure are NOT portraying anything like this right now for our area.. Every single snow chance has now dwindle to rain/mix event and also an insignificant rain event at best for our area as the cold dry air is winning the battle. The models have shown only one positive thing in the last two weeks for a major pattern change and a possible major snow event for us but when it will ever occur will just be plain luck. If you old timers recognize the current major pattern shift on the last weeks runs which we have not seen in nearly 6-10 years is identified as the four corner lows which are developing and pushing into the Gulf of America. Then these lows are quickly re-energized with a ton of moisture and are setting up for a good Miller A type of storm event- rain or snow along the east coast. The lows south of New Orleans into Tampa are impressive on the model runs. This is the best look in model runs in a long time as it appears the GOA is opening back up for business, however these low pressure systems are also quickly becoming southern sliders too. The cold dry air that does come through with a cold front is NOT retreating back up into Canada so quickly before the moisture reaches us. Would not be surprised if the Carolina's up to Washington DC sees more accumulating snow then us this year. This pattern is slowly setting up for a lot nuisance mix storm events snow/sleet to rain for our area if this keeps up. A pure snow event will be hard to come by in the next few weeks

Sold

Yeah, dud on the Euro

Euro certainly won't be GFS like. Flatter at H5

Euro is about the same for Friday. Little more moisture this run

we will make friends with the 0z Euro

Yeah, Euro is nice for Friday. Looks like a 1-2 inch type deal on SV

0z Euro is very good right now

I'm not @SnowenOutThere but the Euro looks improved even over 12z as of hr 54

A lick and a promise from the departing storm. It's snowing. 34.7⁰ I'd play it up like some kind of cosmic irony, but I thought this would happen.

0z GEFS is improved over 18z and 12z. It's a lot closer to the 18z EPS.

Yeah it's not a bad look at all for the early-winter crew. Obviously NNE has been spoiled this year and it really looks to continue, and that's a good sign.

FWIW, you only had to go about 30 miles north of NYC today to find good snow. It never got above freezing in most of Putnam County, NY including all the way down at river/sea level. This was a cold airmass for that area (before, during, and after), which isn't typically a snowy location. New England got kind of boned with this storm because of the particular upper level progression and low level flow/coastal fronts. But this was kind of a fluke.

It would seem quite possible considering the indices: - rising -NAO - rising -AO - weak MJO phase 8 (near or inside circle) - quick +PNA spike

I like your hint of optimism. The modeled longwave trof position and angle look very favorable for almost 10 days. Wave after wave diving from the Pac NW into the central US... just need one or two to find a gap and amplify. I think it's the kind of "pattern" that you'd want in December to try to string a few together and build a pack. Odds are usually against us, but I don't hate the look.

good snow growth now, only around 1 mi. vis. though. maybe 1/4" since changing over

32/30 -SN 4.8" total accumulation

The UKIE, GGEM, and ICON show a winter event of varying degrees in the area. The Canadian would be a major winter storm with significant ice along the 40 corridor from the mid-state to the mountains. Some snow on top of the ice across areas north of 40. UKIE looks like a long duration sleet event. The ICON is a 1-2 inch snow north of 40.

Very active pattern on the models . Lets hope good things come our way. AI GFS also shows a clipper pattern

Haha it’s snowing now! 35

Correct, the #1 ingredient when looking for snow is cold. The track was good for this storm, and I rained. Airmass is everything

UK is trying to bring that energy down Sunday night like the GFS