All Activity

I expect the radar to be crap tomorrow. The dynamics aren't particularly great there is a quite a bit of dry air aloft (outside of a rather narrow axis of moist air lifting southeast to northeast). It will be the Adirondacks, Greens, and probably Berks that get any accumulating snow. Elsewhere its just going to be a combination of rain showers, freezing drizzle, and some sleet pellets. Probably some wet snowflakes for the hills.

Sorry about not posting lately. Got into a bad ski accident on Friday. Snowboarder hit me from behind Fractured my Humerus... I guess no shovel duty for me.

Creeping back GFS weighted im sure Day 4-5

Marginally better than yesterday SOP. Barely.

TWC just had a great set of visuals/animation for both the GFS and Euro runs and also demonstrating what's "steering" all of this, i.e., the big upper level low/trough moving south from Alaska towards off of Seattle, which drives the upper level ridge in the Rockies which drives the upper level trough in the eastern US which our eventual surface low rides along, showing how if the trough is too "flat" the storm heads way SE of the benchmark and we get a whiff or not much (Euro), while if the trough is sharper/deeper it drives that surface low NE-ward towards the benchmark and we get a bomb (GFS). As one might expect, without enough data (and conflicting data) on all of these features (especially that Gulf of Alaska low), the TWC is predicting a bit of a blend of the GFS/Euro, leaning more towards the Euro, but still giving some heavy snow for the coast and less inland, somewhat like the Euro-AIFS, with maybe 3-5" for 95/NW and 5-8" SE of 95 to the coast. Will try to post the video, but for now, here's the pic of their thoughts for the storm: it's not a formal forecast, but their purple is usually 5-8" and dark blue is usually 3-5". It's not a bad "forecast" IMO.

Didn’t take long to dig out this morning

I do suspect the so called atmospheric memory of this winter will be how this ends up. Close but just a little outside! That said the IVT plus a graze could result in measurable snow for many on this forum.

Not to be that guy, but this has honestly alway been a sloppy mess here. Marginal temps, mixing issues, possibly limited QPF. Take the under. Ray north for the best stuff

NAMs slicing and dicing.

39 / 26 as the much prolonged snow pack continues to shrink with melting now accelerated. Tomorrow's rains may due much of the s/c nj and NE places in. Not much sun the next 4-5 days and the snowpack can be replaced quickly Sun pm and into and through Monday with the storm. 2/23 - beyond looks to ride near / below normal and remain wetter.

Time to refresh with a foot

I think I’m done with winter if this doesn’t pan out. It’s like breaking up with two women in the same month. Onto 50’s and drizzle if that happens

fixed

.24

On the EPS. Pretty big jump to this dual wave look. There was a hint of it earlier if you look at the height lines closely but as you can see, it really took off at 06z. If there’s still more to go on focusing things to the west then we could definitely score. But remain in a look like this and most likely the two waves just get in each other’s way as the op demonstrated.

From small plow piles to BOOM. Lookin like winter now.

Warmth coming before month end I think.

Right or wrong.. it's been consistent

1. Note that the 2/22-23 snowstorm threat period remains mainly in phase 3, the coldest phase on avg during La Niña Febs. 2. When I calculate avg temperatures associated with each phase, I’m not assuming any lag. So, during La Niña, phase 3 was coldest on avg in Feb and phase 7 was coldest on avg in Mar, each with no lag. But also keep in mind that these are merely averages being the coldest along with spreads that cover MB to MA. For example: 1) For the coldest La Niña phase in Feb on avg, phase 3: Avg -107/73 days = -1.5, which is 4F colder than the La Niña Feb phase average of +2.5 and has easily averaged the coldest phase. Breakdown of the 18 different Feb La Nina phase 3 periods: wide range but more B/MB (7) than A/MA (5) MB: 1 B: 6 N: 6 A: 3 MA: 2 ————— 2) For the coldest La Niña phase in Mar on avg, phase 7: Avg -135/81 days = -1.7, which is 2.4F colder than the La Niña Mar average of +0.7 and has averaged the coldest phase. Breakdown of the 18 different Mar La Nina phase 7 periods: wide range but more B/MB (8) than A/MA (6) MB: 2 B: 6 N: 4 A: 3 MA: 3

Imagine if we actually had QPF for once?

12k NAM still gets mixing into northern CT tomorrow night. Marginal temperatures.

One last shot? Did the GFS also show that?

This stuff is frozen soiled now . Add more ice tomorrow more snow Monday and no warmth thru end of month it’ll be a full Feb of pack