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I mean. Isn’t this what we always see? 5 days out the models show 48” Of snow somewhere. Ends up shifting north and less snow. Honestly some of these model runs with how much snow they give Deep South. It would be a disaster.

then you're with me. hr 78 now and i dunno how to really say it but it looks like the phase will be cleaner?

haven't had time to pay attention. are we at a yellow alert or red alert

Easier to see the LP trying to sneak up Highway 411 here: 18z-------------------------------------------------------------> 12z 850s:

Everything looks a good bit better actually, lets see if surface responds..

Euro looks like its going to be a big hit. Also comes in earlier

It warms to 30 for a high in valley then 2 hrs later quickly drops to 20s on aifs euro

Skynet also ticked nw.

Mine was 2-4". Not sure will get there.

But how far north does this go?

We're on our own for this one. Can confirm it's more east at 57 than it was at 54.

Heights a bit higher out ahead on the 18z Euro so this will be a bit better then the 12z run.

18z Euro Baja low phases super early, at only hr 66

Ah bummer, figured it wouldn't take long with this cold stretch. Looks like a chance for a few inches tomorrow and tomorrow night. Maybe we can reel in this weekend storm that appears to be slowly bumping north?

And if THEY'RE starting to get double digits hits in there...

Not sure if my flight to DC on Friday with a flight back to BOS on Sunday is the greatest idea anymore..

Good sign that those have continued to improve. Someone loop the last 4-5 runs of it and the difference becomes abundantly clear.

where tf is randy? 18z euro baja low less closed off than 12z, it's more east, hr 54

Nice! Yeah...so Tam' and I were just musing how 'don't assume just because a low pressure looks weak -' But yeah, we can probably see a similarity where must of these bigger busts of lore were associated with presumably weak system. Really all that is needed is one of metric to be huge and the storm in question goes crazy off that one factor. Superb DGZ like you were saying, in a marginal situation = over-performance. Just one example... Then there was Dec 9-11 1992. zomb

Euro looks more amplified at 102

best image I have now, but the 850s have gone north by a county or so:

GEFS much more in line with EURO. Consolidated on an I-85 battle zone. The difference is the battle zone is snow/ice vs. snow/rain.

Euro looks more amplified at 102

Euro AI shift north

Always one of the last things models latch onto.