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Uh, well it Fs us both pretty badly, but other people cash in

29.7°, light snow with the sun still coming through. Looks pretty. Hoping for an inch of glop 'round these parts.

Looks like it would probably cut across NNE

What happened to the Mark Model??!

Clipper train going off the rails.

2.5" here that got rained on so it was a sloppy mess. Back to the freezer for a few days

Icon has zero interest for Friday or Sunday.

The trend line is misleading. It compares the past couple of years to the 1800s. What does that look like if you start the chart in 1980?

I'll make that thread tomorrow for the Sunday potential lol

HRRR with a nice little NOVA/DC band.

12z guidance going the wrong direction for most with these

I'd say we wait until tomorrow for Sunday when the solution becomes a little bit clearer (or even more unclear with the way models are running nowadays lol)

What, specifically are you responding to? The statistical correlation between ENSO 3.4 and NYC seasonal snowfall falls well below statistically relevant skill. And, why, exactly is 4" a meteorologically significant threshold? If we magically get 3.87" of snow vs 4.03" inches of snow we are SCREWED! Sounds like overfitting to me, but what do I know.

Oh, ok. New Boston.

Heh...I pinned daily's thread to sort that out at least. Kinda want to sort that Sunday thing out too, but the jinxistas will come out full flock

Short Pump.

Yes that version is a major improvement overall!

I pinned it. I mean, why not

We are talking about an event that is less than 36 hours away in the medium/long-term thread. And Sunday maybe missing north or south. And about how the snow gods hate certain spots on the map, and reward everyone else but them with snow. And how it might be warm for Christmas like it was in 1965, but not for long.

Santa having to go down the chimney straight into the basement?

The Friday clipper that's overshadowed by its big brother.

Exactly which part of the historic snowfall record do you disagree with?

Meh, how'd that epic pattern work out for you?

With potentially another Xmas torch staring us in the face, I decided to make a plot to see if it’s been as real as it feels or has been for years. So this plot is BWI above normal and much above normal (>=10F) occurrences from 2005-2024. Thicker lines are the year by year counts for each calendar day and thin lines are smoothed by 7 days. Short answer is yes…and the week after Xmas before new years has been the most torch prone.

Define "here".