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18z ICON is one hell of an ice storm South of art 80. Plain rain on the Jersey coast up to about Tom’s River.

Would obviously take it as it lies (feel like I've said that a lot today) but a tick north on the ICON, too. Wrong direction.

I am wrong to say the RGEM is usually a colder (biased) model? It just surprises me that it has continuously ticked S. Is it slower, colder, south? All of the above? Don't get me wrong, I'm don't see su dodging the ice bullet completely, but it does look like the HP is bullying things a bit.

Looos like early 18z guidance has a stronger SLP which could be the reason for the warmer solutions popping up.

NGL its a pretty big step north with its totals.

I know no one will care in here but the DGZ Sunday night here in NW VT for the storm is from 15K ft all the way to the surface on the GFS and up to 20K on the NAM producing large aggregates and a 20-25:1 snow ratio. Incredible. It will be interesting to see how a northern airport (BTV) does for my flight down to DC on Monday. What could possibly go wrong?

As @Holston_River_Ramblernoted, you have to watch the first part of the storm. If everything is colder and south, that tells us something. We need to start watching numbers for verification purposes. The 18z RFSS has ice to the Ohio River. The 18z 3k NAM(which has been good for E TN forecast purposes) has the ice several counties south of the Ohio River. BIG differences in short range models. The interesting thing is how much precip gets out in front of this? Do we get a lot of virga or does this go from the jump? Houston, what were your ideas on the southward verification?

EE rule ftL still, 9 hours of snow followed by 11 hours of sleet will still be impressive and impactful. *note to self: wait until 850-700mb layers can be accurately modeled

Ummm, just NO. The models and forecasters are absolutely NOT ignoring the strong Arctic high. As others said above, even with a very strong high anchored, the dynamics counteract that at least to some extent. Not saying the NAM or RRFS is or will be right, but it's not like as depicted the strong high is "ignored." Likewise, forecasters are certainly not blowing it off either. This is a mid-level layer issue and still uncertain exactly how that will evolve or how much.

yup throw the nam out, throw the euro out, throw the eukie out......the thing is the gfs has been on an island the whole time and even with that is showing signs of a cave

Thanks Brett…

Fwiw, 18z ICON would be 6-10" before flip for most

ICON does not look like it’s gonna bring good vibes. Consolidated vort and heights higher at 42 compared to 12z.

I think we should feel better knowing this was a synoptic scale shift instead of a thermal driven one. Less likely it seems for a dynamics model to beat out the Euro and Gfs on the large scale picture.

Everyone knows its been trending north. Some people should step away and take a break.

I think 4-8" is the right forecast now till you get to 25+ miles north and west of the city.

Look at that nose

Looks to me like the ICON is holding the primary longer and stronger through 48hrs

If you add 1-2" of sleet that counts as accumulation too but I always thought 12" for NYC which they have now and 14" yesterday was too aggressive. I'd go with 12" maybe in Yonkers and 8" in SI/Rockaway.

yup if people were paying attention to it, it little by little kept introducing mix where as it had one a couple days ago and its spitting out less snow but hey everyone just wants to run with kuchera

It’s actually much warmer and gets sleet onto Massachusetts

Regional battles heating up. Blood is in the water, and the usual suspects can smell it.

I am not talking outlier regarding snowfall amounts - I am talking outlier regarding sleet/freezing rain amounts rather have dry slot then sleet or freezing rain

It honestly wouldn’t surprise me. But people neeed to stop panicking it was one run no other model has it as bad

The RRFS is snowier than the NAM for sure, but the RRFS also shifted northward with the heaviest snow and the thermals. 12z had better ratios and was a mid-HV down to near NYC jack. 18z has it up near ALB with heavy snows to the NY border. Obviously it will shift around somewhat but it's disappointing not to see a clear colder/south trend at 18z so far.