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Agreed. If it can hold the convection overnight and still looks like this on first visible pictures we should have a least a TD by tomorrow 5am....maybe even a TS if we get a good ASCAT pass over the next 6-10 hours. Winds were marginal TS earlier but circulation was not completely closed off, no west wind. This satellite pic looks healthy. Thinking along the lines of TD or TS next 2-3 days then weakening beyond that and perhaps if it can hold together enough some regeneration north of the islands or east of the Bahamas down the road. Most guidance has shifted south and west last few days indicative of a weaker system I believe.

Funny thing is that wouldn't be true because 13 years ago was 2013, which was a very quiet season. All storms that year were either TS or C1. All of the notable hurricanes came during the active seasons of 2010, 2011, and 2012, which were 14-16 years ago.

Index Value Predicted '23-'24 DM Value Range Actual '23-'24 DM Value Forecast Error Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) -.30 to -.60 -1.51 Biased .91 positive Perennial North American Pattern (PNA) -.35 to -.65 +.55 Biased .90 negative ENSO OND 1.7-1.9 ONI EMI: .6 - .8 (West Tilt Basin-Wide) NDJ 2.0 EMI: .30 .01 degree too cool and one month too early. Biased .30 West (J-M) East Pacific Oscillation (EPO) +.30 to +.60 -.04 Biased .34 positive Arctic Oscillation (AO) -.30 to -.60 -.10 Biased .20 negative North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) +.10 to -.20 +.76 Biased .66 negative

All of a sudden looks like TS Dolly...

That's good info. I thought the video looked odd for a typical flash flood. I saw one video where it was all this dark dust/debris at first, like a cloud.

I'd be careful about how solar and wind are pushed as "supplying more of the power" or "taking over." They play w/ numbers and cherry-pick stats for particular hours or days. What matters is in long-term mean and going by any state, region, or even country can be misleading b/c we share electricity across borders. Grids are not isolated in many areas of the world. Also, even though solar/wind is on rise, coal/gas as a whole is also on the rise in many countries. China leads the way in solar, but they also lead the way in new coal plants coming online and coal consumption, avg 2 new plants a week. So yes, solar in increasing but not as a percentage overall. This is where they play w/ numbers, giving absolute power output for solar and leaving out total percentage of use by all energy sources overall for the grids.

HRRR brings storms in between 6 and 8 tomorrow night

Whatever he's posting is pretty misleading considering Massachusetts imports far more energy from the regional grid than it produces (and the regional grid is basically entirely natural gas and nuclear). You can read more here: https://www.eia.gov/states/MA/overview From my understanding, this seems largely like a sleight of hand: shut down nuclear & fossil fuel plants, replace a fraction of that capacity with renewable - but you can call yourself green because it's a larger share --- and then import the lion's share of your electric from a non-green heavy grid. You can see MA's all source generation here (decreasing from 10 / 20 years ago): EIA.gov website. I know MA has installed a ton of residential and small scale solar, which is fine to celebrate but I see the data being used very loosely. In fairness, I think that chart is not including the 4,000 MWh of non utility solar, so a little overstating the reduction.

Clueless. He does not seem to know, or just being disingenuous b/c he wants to post content and clickbait, that it is a 5 day avg temp. that's why it's called the 6 to 10 day. This is what happens when there are no TCs in the Atlantic to hype late summer, ppl just start posting fluff/nonsense or wx event anniversaries that are not multiples of 5. It's why all you hear the last few days is "34 years since HU Andrew!"

Surprise shower at the house tonight.

Today's Highs: PHL: 86 New Brnswck: 85 EWR: 84 BLM: 83 TEB: 83 LGA: 82 TTN: 82 ACY: 81 NYC: 81 JFK: 80 ISP: 78

I am a prophet.

Just got nailed by a storm, almost half an inch. Up to 2.6" on the month.

Mount Holly weather service has a flood watch here.

I luv ya' Chuck, but come on. A few days of weather the end of August/early September really can't be tied to the upcoming winter. Coincidence? ...at best, but nothing more.

This will be DC's first wetter than normal month in a while.

Yank @Maestrobjwaout of the city and get his ass on a legit chase. Man does he need it.

0.4" so far, still more coming though we'll see if it stays far enough south to get me to a half inch. That puts me over 3" for the month. Best month in a long time

Until I get a legit all day long rainy day, not a thunderstorm, I'm declaring that the dry pattern continues and drought is still the base state.

Just got 0.42" rain in 16 minutes with rates peaking at 2.5"/hr. All done though. Parts of Parker got hammered. Saw some broad rotation in the cloud base on my way home from work in Aurora. EDIT: round 2 developing from outflow. Quite an interesting afternoon, all of a sudden!

It’s been dry all summer long…..why would anyone go against that without a major pattern change!?

Almost all of the mainstream mets are pointing towards a torchy fall so...

6 tor in the PHI CWA, so I think the 5% tor risk worked out well. And just looking on radar what the Dover supercell was like, you knew things were quite favorable!