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Yeah GFS caved on this one big time from Philly to central NJ. Last run has Central NJ with almost all sleet. Looks like south of NYC is the cutoff zone. This thing wraps up pretty quickly too, should be finished by 4 AM.

Lower Hudson Valley into Fairfield County I think may end up in the sweet spot. I was really thinking there was room for some of the heavier banding to end up pretty far north like the NAM has. Even though the NAM is kind of alone there are two things the NAM are great at sniffing out, warm layers and banding. But the NAM has seemed to back off on the intense fronto band it had on some earlier runs but also argues for multiple bands. But one thing that is going to enhance things in the Lower HV into Fairfield County will be the proximity to the mix line and 700 warm front. It will really dump here. If anyone is going to end up with something along the lines of 8-10" it will be within this area. I am wondering if the sharp cutoff line will end up from like just west of Springfield to around Hartford south to like Guilford.

NAM/GFS (and others) now all in agreement for 5" - 10" for NYC metro. Enjoy!

thats frozen precipitation!

84 hour GFS forecast for reference

There's precip?

Insane line at Stop & Shop. You'd think this was Boxing Day Blizzard Part 2 smh

26F/Cloudy

Just peeked at radar…looks like one of those awesome events where you can see the back edge of the precip before the precip arrives.

The extremely rare jackpot NOUS41 KGYX 251426 PNSGYX MEZ007>009-012>014-018>028-033-NHZ001>015-260226- Public Information Statement National Weather Service Gray ME 926 AM EST Thu Dec 25 2025 ...SNOWFALL REPORTS... Location Amount Time/Date Provider ...Maine... ...Androscoggin County... 2 E Lewiston 18.0 in 0157 PM 12/24 Trained Spotter Turner 17.0 in 1244 PM 12/24 Public Durham 16.1 in 0332 PM 12/24 CO-OP Observer 2 N Lisbon 15.5 in 1202 PM 12/24 Trained Spotter Greene 1.9 S 14.5 in 0700 AM 12/25 COCORAHS Livermore Falls 3.7 SSW 12.8 in 0700 AM 12/25 COCORAHS 1 W Mechanic Falls 12.5 in 0355 PM 12/24 NWS Employee ...Cumberland County... Freeport 3.0 ENE 17.1 in 0700 AM 12/25 COCORAHS 1 SSW Brunswick 16.8 in 0931 AM 12/24 Trained Spotter 1 N Cumberland 14.1 in 0236 PM 12/24 Trained Spotter 2 SE New Gloucester 14.0 in 0928 AM 12/24 Trained Spotter Raymond 14.0 in 1241 PM 12/24 Public 1 NNE Gray 12.5 in 0915 AM 12/24 NWS Employee Harpswell 3.1 WSW 12.1 in 0700 AM 12/25 COCORAHS 2 WSW Falmouth 11.1 in 0540 PM 12/24 NWS Employee 3 ESE Casco 11.0 in 1205 PM 12/24 Trained Spotter Gorham 0.5 SSE 10.0 in 0800 AM 12/25 COCORAHS 3 WSW South Windham 9.5 in 0320 PM 12/24 Trained Spotter 1 WSW North Windham 9.4 in 1148 AM 12/24 Trained Spotter 2 SSE Bridgton 8.6 in 0248 PM 12/24 Public 2 SW South Portland 6.3 in 1239 PM 12/24 Trained Spotter Sebago 2.4 ESE 6.1 in 0800 AM 12/25 COCORAHS Portland Jetport 5.3 in 0100 PM 12/24 ASOS

It was just a SMIDGE warmer.

People like the rip the NAM. But it looks like the GFS was wrong about keeping heavy snow out of ENY (ALB) and most of SNE. It's been shifting steadily for two days. The GFS was also too snowy in EPA (PHL) and SNJ. The NAM looks to have been much faster to pick up on these trends.

NWS has temps progged in the mid 40's for here early next week.

Pretty much my thoughts. I think we are waiting for another 10 days or so for any real threat.

Sweet jesus-let's hope

Gfs

Welcome!!

The Op runs are showing a lot of activity in the first 10 days of January with storms actually approaching from the south & west instead of the north. We will likely have the chance to win & lose, but I think it will be better than tracking weak Clippers that the previous few weeks have brought us.

I will be shocked if there aren't thundersnow reports in the Lower Hudson Valley/Fairfield County tonight

Just been busy. I will update today.

I have to do some serious radar watching. We need to decided the exact last minute we can do our animal sitting jobs. So far my estimated time to do the horses is no later than 2. As for the younger Ms. J who has a hour long drop in we told her that she as of now should plan on being at her job by 1 so she can leave by 2. I have seen some stuff out West of the area I am going to but it looks light. And I do not mind driving in a bit of snow. Ice is a different story. Eyes will be glued to the radar for the next few hours.

Warmer on MWN than HIE and BML at 10am so you know this is pretty shallow.

8.9F I don't mind snow or making some ice on the ponds, but these airmasses always suck. Especially with a lot of clouds around.