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Yup, but we knew

Plenty of heavy rainfall on the drive in to work. Roads runoff heavy. Wouldn't be surprised if the home station was approaching 1 inch.

We have already picked up 0.57" of much needed rain here in EN since last evening. We could see another 0.10" to 0.25" more this morning before it tapers off this afternoon. We still have on average 2 inches of snow on the ground and today will be our 35th consecutive day with snow cover. This is now the 10th longest stretch and 13th longest overall. We warm tomorrow into the upper 40's which may get rid of the last of the snow cover. Our well-advertised potential 14th winter event of the season looks to arrive on Sunday morning. How much remains to be seen but chances of a plowable event have increased for much of Chester County.

Yea, it will be south of me, but let the south coast get 30" if it means I get 20".

We have already picked up 0.57" of much needed rain here in EN since last evening. We could see another 0.10" to 0.25" more this morning before it tapers off this afternoon. We still have on average 2 inches of snow on the ground and today will be our 35th consecutive day with snow cover. This is now the 10th longest stretch and 13th longest overall. We warm tomorrow into the upper 40's which may get rid of the last of the snow cover. Our well-advertised potential 14th winter event of the season looks to arrive on Sunday morning. How much remains to be seen but chances of a plowable event have increased for much of Chester County.

Even if a low end warning level event verifies we will be talking about this one for a long time.

Seemed to have missed all the heavier rains this morning. Picked up .23". Combined with the .5 that fell last evening though, it's the biggest rain event here in ages. Hopefully, we add more this weekend.

I think there’s a growing possibility that the bull’s-eye that ends up being more into southern New England.

Gotta figure those winds are gonna scream with isobars like that

People have this idea I think that the quality of models is more different than they really are. Like I remember someone saying yesterday that the GFS takes multiple cycles to flush out bad initialization data. That's literally how every single modern weather model works. It's called 4dvar. It's something that would impact the Euro too

GFS was on an island and now it’s not alone but it got joined by the NAM and srefs

I found his updated NWS forecast

This could end up pretty flaccid for anybody under 1000’ elevation. Hoping for 2” here, but not holding my breath.

Yes.

Keep this in mind when looking at Mt. Holly's forecast and snowfall map. Both are only through 7 am Sunday (they only project out 72 hours) and in thier AFD they said, "Given the uncertainty, our latest forecast stuck closely to the NBM," which should mean the 01Z NBM (the AFD came out at 3 am and would've been based on the 01Z NBM) through 7 am Monday, which is the first graphic, which is fairly close to their forecast map.And if they were forecasting for the whole storm, it would've been the 01Z NBM in the 3rd graphic, which is a respectable starting point, IMO, given the still pretty high uncertainty facing them. I'd expect watches to go up at 4 pm, unless we see some unexpected significant model backtracking on snowfall. And there's plenty of room for them to bump totals up should it come to that, looking at their 10% high probability case showing 12-24" - but they also might have the biggest spread from high to low I've ever seen with their 10% low probability case being for <1" for all. Strap in folks.

Within 48 hours, can we take banter to banter? Thanks!!!!

But we could be deformed

lol zero chance of 6 today. I’ll be lucky for 1-2 I think.

This is including todays/tonight's snow right? pretty misleading for northern areas.

Another fascinating day of tracking !

Last night had some favorable developments. Although a significant or major snowstorm remains a low probability/high-impact scenario, there was a notable increase in EPS members supporting such a solution. 6" or above: 2/19 12z: 8%; 2/20 0z: 24% 10" or above: 2/19 12z: 0%; 2/20 0z: 12% Model disagreement, especially at the surface, persists. The GFS remains the most aggressive model. The NAM shows no accumulating snow in New York City. Things should start to narrow today. A good starting point might be a 3"-6"-type snowfall for New York City and its nearby suburbs with more than 6" likely in an area running from central/southern New Jersey northeastward across central and eastern Long Island. These numbers are subject to change as the situation remains dynamic.

The canadians could use some support after the gold medal game loss yesterday. lol

I had stopped watching figure skating because it seemed to be a race to landing quads. I have never seen her two programs and looked up her short program yesterday. Wow what a breath of fresh air. I did not even notice the jumps. The joy and excitement I saw, she had created one of the most fluid pieces I have seen in a long time. Her free skate was just the same. Her musicality is amazing! Proof that you have to enjoy and love what you do. I applaud Alysa for taking the path she did. Towards the end of the younger Ms J’s junior riding career she had stopped having fun. She consciously decided it was not about the ribbons but about showing how much she loved riding. She took on the training of a friend’s young horse. And made the decision to stay on her large pony and have some amazing fun with her. She also really enjoyed being on an IEA team. A format where you ride a horse by draw that you have never ridden before. Not all riders can do it as it takes your skills and knowledge to figure out a horse just by a description on a piece of paper and maybe one test fence. Those decisions ultimately helped her with the choice of schools to attend. She chose a school with a wonderful IHSA club team. Where anyone can ride you don’t have to be recruited to ride. Those who do what they love will always come out on the top of life. Alysa skated like no one was watching. I thank her for letting us in.

6z EPS is decent, with several west leaning ensemble members that could provide upside snow potential. The mean still brings 4 inches to the LSV this run.

Better than posting. Wouldn't you agree?