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TWC also hugs the GFS and uses that as their main guidance when forecasting totals. I had a friend who was an intern there and he told me they always use the GFS as the “base” and will look at a mix blend of their own in house models, but when they forecast the totals it’s the GFS being used mainly. They hardly ever take the Euro into account. .

Yeah, I'm looking for at least a small tick north across more 12z models, not just the GFS/GEFS. If that happens, then it's game on. If not, well....

We need the Forky line drop.

Did you get to the Country last wk?

not every storm around here is going to be major - most are not - expectations around this place get too high overall IMO

No kidding, will keep eyes on this til the end.

Sorry, ...that's not the right hole, honey

Euro eps sniffed out last week first I think.. hoping for the best lol

Don’t trust a forecast that can’t spell ‘Storm’.

Generally speaking, we need to get inside the 48 hour mark for its reliability.

Snow growth should be better this weekend....it was lacking until that final stanza Monday night in this past event.

I like this trend on the EPS

Need that 100-150 miles further west for something major

Thanks Don! With the apparent blocking and the +PNA duration this may line up perfectly.

Perhaps we see some north movement in 12z suite today. I have to take my wife to Duke for treatment Sunday. Gotta figure out what day we will go.

After all of that warmth to start the month, the cold has erased almost all of it. TRI is only +0.4 with likely four cold days left still to input. TRI should finish BN for temps this month but within the seasonal norm range...which is astounding to me after how warm it was to start the month. It is very difficult to erase 3 days of mid 60s temps in the norms. It very well could bring the overall winter average to almost exactly normal to this date - December and January combined. Some wild swings to be be able to pull that off.

For you, Aldie, and me....

On the video I posted there is mention that the precipitation field should be more expansive. Yeah there will be sharp gradients but the field should be further west

That’s a good first call map, IMO, and I like the more cautious (and responsible) approach. The only tweak I’d make would be a simple mention of “higher localized amounts possible” in your 6-10” zone. It’s obviously still a little early for such specifics, but I’ll be surprised if some areas don’t see a foot.

NY metro is the weakest forum of the 3 major ones. Like 5 or 6 regular mets.

I think that was like 2 days later? I recall that.

Saw a -15 and a bunch of -12s and -13s in the best radiating spots in S Belchertown/ Ludlow. Sensor caveats apply. But the elevated spots weren't close to that, 0 to maybe a couple degrees below. Not totally fake cold, just kinda fake.

NAM is off and running. Close enough to it's medium range it may start to matter, at least when reviewing 5h panels.

There’s a late shitstreak that drops south toward New England that keeps the heights suppressed a little longer than they would be otherwise. That PV lobe is pivoting and dropping southeast at this point and the heights (that string of vorticity over us) really wants to move north more if that other s/w wasn’t there. Maybe in the end it wouldn’t matter, but anything that can relax the gph field I’d think would be a benefit

Stop whining…this is winter. Embrace. Enjoy. New England at its finest right now. This is what you moved up here for.