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Starting to clear out here. Just a little over 4 inches. Fontana is the lowest I have seen in sometime

I think “kicker” is an unfortunate misnomer for the thing being talked about. It’s not so much “kicking” the wave east as it is lowering heights behind the wave that prevents it from digging further south and going negative tilt at the right time for us. I think that’s what is meant.

I am also now watching Jan 20th as a window a bit more closely. Looks legit.

Looks like NYC is not in that box… just saying

Today was also only the 8th day without pack this winter. Most of those days were between 12/8-12/14…had a couple before New Years too.

It's an informal term that some people use to describe interactions in the flow. Admittedly, it annoys me a little bit, but I let it slide. I have even seen NWS mets say it in forecast discussions.

Notice how there is a bit of ridging edging into Maine. Wonder if this helps nudge the trough more neutral/negative?

Peaked at 44 here today during the day but 41 now. Midnight high of 48.

Ya that could be it.

Maybe he means midnight high? 42 here now

The rain forecast entirely busted so that drought continues here.

Zero interest in next week's system until today/tonight's system gets on out of here. Till then, it's flip-flop mania.

LWX Disco (the part we care about): THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER, TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE DAY. THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION (RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW) WILL BE ALONG AND WEST OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT, BUT SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS MAY SPILL TO THE EAST. UNCERTAINTY INCREASES THEREAFTER AS A DEEP TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN US. IF THIS TROUGH WERE TO PHASE WITH A SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE, LOW PRESSURE COULD DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST ON THURSDAY. AS TEMPERATURES DROP BEHIND THE FRONT, ANY PRECIPITATION THAT DOES OCCUR COULD BE WINTRY IN PARTS OF THE AREA. THE GFS HAS SHOWN THIS SCENARIO FOR A FEW RUNS, BUT AS OF NOW IS NOT SUPPORTED BY OTHER GUIDANCE OR EVEN MOST OF ITS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. JUST A PERIOD TO PAY ATTENTION TO FOR NOW.

I'll take a shot of the GFS

This is the piece of energy that the GFS is dropping into the trough. Euro isn’t that far off from the gfs with this shortwave. Just a small change in the location and speed of that wave changes everything. Obviously the angle of the kicker dropping in matters as well as the tpv in SE Canada. Just something to keep an eye on future runs .

We talk about a kicker ‘pushing’ a storm, but nothing in the atmosphere is really shoving anything else. The air and pressure features are all just parts of one continuous fluid flow. When a new disturbance approaches, the larger pattern around it changes shape—like ripples on a pond or waves on a rope. The systems all move together because the wind field evolves, not because one feature physically kicks another.

0.83 so far and still raining. Should hit 1”

43 here…no torch.

SE ridge has been over modeled for 5 months. It’ll change eventually, but I’d bet on persistence until then.

Boots came in so I went to pick them up. I ended up purchasing a ski/binding combo. Atomic Bent 85 R 170cm w/ Marker M10 bindings. Sharp looking ski and gets solid reviews/ratings. Gonna be ready mid-week. Just need to round out gear with some poles and I’ll be ready to hit the slopes.

Thanks Blizz and Nut!

I do know that putting on a coat in winter isn’t too difficult though, so I have that going for me.

Oh wow someone has a significant other and wants to brag about it.