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Carver, no doubt we need a pattern reset. I hope that will be enough. It has been colder than normal this month, which i hope we can continue that to some extent in January. Typically niñas favor us, but not every time

The Niña is going to reach its peak soon. This is the coldest reading in region 3.4 we’ve seen for this entire event

We’ve gone above freezing for the first time in 22 days at MSP.

Lansing has records back in the 1860's which had some very cold winters. So I looked at how this year compared. Impressive to be sure. 15.63 1868-12-01 1868-12-15 1 1 1 0 16.93 1867-12-01 1867-12-15 2 2 2 0 17.20 1917-12-01 1917-12-15 3 3 3 0 17.20 1876-12-01 1876-12-15 3 3 4 0 17.33 1895-12-01 1895-12-15 5 4 5 0 17.53 1958-12-01 1958-12-15 6 5 6 0 18.47 1976-12-01 1976-12-15 7 6 7 0 18.70 1904-12-01 1904-12-15 8 7 8 0 19.33 1989-12-01 1989-12-15 9 8 9 0 19.43 1864-12-01 1864-12-15 10 9 10 0 19.77 1893-12-01 1893-12-15 11 10 11 0 19.90 2025-12-01 2025-12-15 12 11 12 0 Here's what MRCC has for Detroit 19.57 1958-12-01 1958-12-15 1 1 1 0 20.03 1917-12-01 1917-12-15 2 2 2 0 21.30 1876-12-01 1876-12-15 3 3 3 0 21.37 1976-12-01 1976-12-15 4 4 4 0 22.07 1895-12-01 1895-12-15 5 5 5 0 22.10 2025-12-01 2025-12-15 6 6 6 0 22.30 1989-12-01 1989-12-15 7 7 7 0 22.63 1937-12-01 1937-12-15 8 8 8 0 22.90 2005-12-01 2005-12-15 9 9 9 0 22.97 1893-12-01 1893-12-15 10 10 10 0

This is kind of what I am talking about. Two cold fronts are now firmly present right in the middle of the Chinook. Originally, it was torch city. I wouldn't be surprised if some didn't see a snow shower or flurry from this. The 12z GFS won't be as cool as the 6z as it gets bogged down(guess where?) just after 200.

Don’t remember the torch. Remember the cold though. It was brutal

I don't think so. Today: 2 weeks from now: Still on our side of the globe and not too far from a widespread cold snap that could extend at least a couple of weeks down this way in January. Yes, it's one ensemble run, but the source/placement of cold air hasn't really changed all that much from run to run.

They also had a climate where their September was like December is in the Holocene. Back to school in snow gear?

And @IrishRob17 thought i was joking when i said i keep the lawn higher for the last mow for that reason. Snow sticks to the top of the grass, i bury the ruler all the way to the frozen ground underneath, can easily inflate my totals another 2” sometimes lol. of course on the flip side is the guys who poopoo 1-3” snowfalls saying “it wont stick on the roads we wont get that much the models are wrong”…because we measure on 42nd street apparently.

Not sure how many cave people did Christmas. lol

Bring on a Christmas Ice Storm. The cave people did Christmas without electricity, we can too.

First half of December was very impressive in its persistence of cold. The depth of cold was more impressive in the Great Lakes than the northeast, but even then, the widespread magnitude of well below normal temperatures was impressive over a huge area. The entire first half of December is almost ironic given the numerous posts in this very thread about volcanoes, cold being brief and not widespread, etc. First half of December rankings: Flint: 3rd coldest in 105 years Ann Arbor: 4th coldest in 145 years*** Detroit: 5th coldest in 152 years Grand Rapids: 5th coldest in 133 years Green Bay: 6th coldest in 140 years Toledo: 7th coldest in 153 years Cleveland: 8th coldest in 155 years Pittsburgh: 8th coldest in 151 years Baltimore: 10th coldest in 154 years Lansing: 12th coldest in 163 years Chicago: 13th coldest in 154 years Milwaukee: 13th coldest in 155 years Washington DC: 19th coldest in 154 years New York City: 25th coldest in 157 years For Detroit, going back to 1906 (as far as I have records), 2025 is officially only the 2nd December to have 1”+ snowcover every day for the first half of December. The only other time was 1910. To be fair, we should include 1974, as a massive snowstorm hit on Dec 1st but the snow depth at 7am was just a T. Even then, only 1910, 1974, and 2025 were nonstop blanketed in snow the entire first half of December. This shows just how early it REALLY is, but we just have to hope that the entire load of cold wasnt blown before the Winter Solstice. *** I included Ann Arbor as even though it isnt a first order station, it is one of the few stations you will find whos location has never moved (Univ of Mich campus).

First half of December was very impressive in its persistence of cold. Southern Michigan seemed the most impressive record-wise in terms of all-time placement, but widespread temp departures of -10F to -13F encompassed the sub. Flint: 3rd coldest in 105 years Ann Arbor: 4th coldest in 145 years Detroit: 5th coldest in 152 years Grand Rapids: 5th coldest in 133 years Green Bay: 6th coldest in 140 years Toledo: 7th coldest in 153 years Cleveland: 8th coldest in 155 years Pittsburgh: 8th coldest in 151 years Lansing: 12th coldest in 163 years Chicago: 13th coldest in 154 years Milwaukee: 13th coldest in 155 years For Detroit, going back to 1906 (as far as I have records), 2025 is officially only the 2nd December to have 1”+ snowcover every day for the first half of December. The only other time was 1910. To be fair, we should include 1974, as a massive snowstorm hit on Dec 1st but the snow depth at 7am was just a T. Even then, only 1910, 1974, and 2025 were nonstop blanketed in snow the entire first half of December.

Meh typical cutter we see every year. A week ago everyone was crying about Torchmas now....

Thanks Man ! Great Information !!!

No thanks for extended outages. No one under 7 here, but on Christmas our 3-bedroom, one bathroom home will have 11 people (with 7 ladies) with ages 7 to 79. Should be taking notes that all of our big storms have been cutters. All of the big storms have avoided us since April of last year.

BWI has just recorded its 10th coldest 1st half of December, with an average temperature of 31.4F. DCA comes in at 19th coldest (34.4F) Just as compelling are the stats for max daytime temperatures so far this month. BWI's mark of 45F ties with 1904 for the lowest high temperature seen in the first half of December. DCA 2nd lowest (46F). As for the upcoming warmup.. DCA's 30 year average max temperature for the 2nd half of December is 64F, so what might feel like a Holidays "torch" is actually not too uncommon.

Yep I see WH forcing in the hovmoller's forecasts, of which GFS is performing well lately. It's trying to go into phases 1 and 2, with a bit of ensemble support.

It was wild to say the least. Most of the snow was suppressed south however. Savannah, GA had a 10 inch snowstorm right before Xmas. Around the 30th-it broke and never came back-Jan/Feb/Mar were absolute infernos

Heck yes this is excellent news!!

53 or 60, still a disaster.

It's about time. Last December ended up normal to 1 degree below normal at most stations, after several ridiculously mild Decembers. If it were not for the big warmup after the white Christmas many of us enjoyed last year it would have been 2-3 below normal.

yeah, i'm pretty confident that we're going to see the NAO drop rather significantly as the Scandi / N ATL trough retrogrades... the WH MJO forcing is a strong precursor to that, as it helps wavebreaking occur in the N ATL

We shall see but again 53 is 90% of the time. Anyways coming soon. Thigh high to a horse

I don’t think you can use strict charts in a screamer . They’ll never catch onto the warmth fully until last minute . Factoring in Climo too much