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May 2019 General Discussions & Observations Thread
CIK62 replied to Rtd208's topic in New York City Metro
Next 8 days averaging 68.4degs., or 3degs. AN. Month to date is -1.0[60.0]. Should be +0.1[62.3] by the 30th. -
Central PA Spring/Summer 2019
Flatheadsickness replied to Bubbler86's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
SPC AC 220600 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Wed May 22 2019 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER A PORTION OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS AND NORTHEAST STATES... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms with large hail, damaging wind and tornadoes will be possible over a part of the central and southern Plains Thursday. Other severe storms with a threat for mainly damaging wind and large hail are expected from a portion of the Northeast States into the Ohio Valley. ...Synopsis... A significant shortwave trough will rotate through the base of an upper low centered over the Great Basin 12Z Thursday and into the central High Plains Thursday afternoon and evening. Farther east, a low-amplitude shortwave trough will crest an upper ridge anchored over the southeast U.S. and move through the Great Lakes before turning southeast into the Northeast States Thursday evening. At the surface a warm or stationary front will likely extend from the middle MS Valley region southwest into southern KS. A dryline will reside near the TX/NM border. Warm front is expected to lift slowly north through central and eastern KS, while the dryline mixes through west TX during the day. Farther east a surface low attending the northern-stream shortwave trough will move through southern Canada while trailing cold front advances southeast through the Great Lakes. A warm front will advance east into a portion of the Northeast States. ...Central and southern Plains... Elevated storms may be ongoing over a portion of western and central KS north of the warm front early Thursday and could pose some risk for large hail. A very moist and unstable airmass with dewpoints in the upper 60s to around 70 F will reside in the warm sector from southern KS to OK and TX beneath 7-7.5 C/km mid-level lapse rates, contributing to moderate to strong instability (2500-3500 J/kg MLCAPE). Forcing for ascent attending the northeast-ejecting upper jet will glance western portion of the warm sector and in vicinity of the dryline that should mix east into the TX Panhandle and west TX. Storms development is probable along this boundary from the TX Panhandle into southwest KS where convergence will be maximized. Vertical wind profiles with 45-55 kt effective bulk shear will support supercells, and 0-2km hodographs size will also increase as the low-level jet strengthens during the late afternoon and evening. Activity will spread northeast with all hazards possible with storms remaining in warm sector. Some storms may eventually move or develop north of the warm front, but strong effective bulk shear and moderate MUCAPE will still support potential for supercells with large hail. Overnight the entrance region of the upper jet and merging of Pacific front with dryline should promote additional severe thunderstorm development across west TX. ...Northeast States through Ohio Valley... The warm sector will gradually moisten west of the warm front during the day with low to mid 60s F dewpoints beneath 6.5 C/km lapse rates, along with diabatic warming contributing to modest instability (800-1200 J/kg MLCAPE). Current indications are that storms will most likely develop along and ahead of southeast-advancing cold front spread southeast through the OH Valley and Northeast States during the afternoon and evening. Winds will strengthen as the mid-level speed max attending the shortwave trough approaches the region with effective shear supporting supercells. These storms may produce large hail, damaging wind and a couple of tornadoes as they move southeast through the region later Thursday afternoon into the evening. -
Central PA Spring/Summer 2019
Flatheadsickness replied to Bubbler86's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
Then you will love this Mr. Atom I may have to break out the Cookies and Chem Dawg cross for this one. Multiple ingredients are present Thursday afternoon and evening for a rather significant severe storm outbreak with numerous fast-moving supercells and mini bow echoes within short TSRA lines. SPC upgraded the previous Slight Risk for Day 2 to an Enhanced Risk for much of our CWA. This upgrades seems warranted as llvl directional shear is impressive and strong leading to broad-loop hodographs and the base of 50kt westerly and WNW winds only around 5KFT agl during the mid afternoon to early evening hours Thursday. This is a classic supercell and potential large hail-producing environment as storm relative inflow/updraft helicity will be unusually high INVOF sfc warm front/lee trough across Ncent PA and the Susq Valley during the afternoon hours. Low LCLs under 3000 FT AGL covering much of Central and Eastern PA and strong LLVL shear will lead to 0-1km EHIs of 2-4(m^2/sec^2) near the warm front/lee trough over the central and eastern zones between 21Z Thu and 00Z Fri. The threat of several tornado-producing supercells will occur across this same region from mid afternoon to around dusk. In addition to the anticipated hail and isolated tornado threat, the supercells and their strong updrafts will occasionally collapse into fast moving mini bow/spearhead echoes that have the potential for producing localized, straight line winds in excess of 75 mph and swaths of wind damage. Storm total QPF will likely average between 3 and 6 tenths of an inch given the fast storm motion. Localized one inch amounts are possible where two or more TSRA occur. In the wake of the Thursday`s active weather, a slightly cooler and drier day is in store for Friday. By Saturday the humidity will begin to return along with a chance of mainly diurnal showers/storms. as a weak shortwave once again races over the top of the eastern ridge. We look to get a break on Sunday as the 12Z models show a mainly dry day, but by the Monday-Tuesday timeframe more showers become possible as we stay in fast flow aloft near the top of the subtropical ridge. -
May 2019 General Discussions & Observations Thread
SnoSki14 replied to Rtd208's topic in New York City Metro
Dipping into the 40s now, a big drop from near 90 on Sunday. -
39.7F here currently.
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https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html
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May 2019 General Discussions & Observations Thread
Rtd208 replied to Rtd208's topic in New York City Metro
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html -
Yea, I grew up in a neighborhood off Skeet Club Rd. N High Point is pretty similar to the rest of Greensboro climo wise (from what I remember). We'll see what happens.. Weren't you in Tallahassee before? and now you're in Durham? That means you'll be in the game for at least half of the winter threats this year.
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Patrick Marsh’s discussion on twitter about this set-up really puts in perspective just how close we were to something like a generational outbreak yesterday. The sounding from OKC showed an environment on par with that sampled just in front of the Tuscaloosa Birmingham EF4, as well as several other major outbreaks. This will be THE case study that everyone will want to understand because it largely undermined everything we thought we knew about high-end outbreak days.
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Broyles (and Wendt) jumped from MRGL to ENH with a 10% sig tor delineation from northeastern Oklahoma into southeastern Kansas for the new Day 1. I can't say I disagree all that much. The Day 2 also has 10% hatched tor probs, but for areas a bit farther west.
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I picked up another 0.73" of rain today. My May total is now 4.61", with 3.83" of that falling since last Thursday.
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Interesting. Looks like it was a wake low. MLI and DVN gusted to 58mph, Dubuque gusted to 59mph, and across the river from us at Clinton they hit 60mph. Saw the same pressure fluctuation here on my station. Interestingly, the pressure quickly rose as the precip began around 9:30pm, and then started to quickly fall about a half hour later after the heaviest part of the convection went through. The pressure continued to slowly fall as the light anvil rain fell, and then the pressure very quickly jumped. During that quick pressure jump is when the high winds hit on the very back side of the rain.
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As Marsh said today in his Twitter thread, Monday’s environment was the 1% of 1%s. The research on why it busted will be really fun to see play out. We won’t know much until the sounding tomorrow morning in Norman, but the environment is primed. Just need some more factors to come together.
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Not really sure. I figured those were usually associated with mature severe MCS. This was just a band of weak elevated convection. These were stronger than any winds I've seen with a wake low. The high winds come in waves as well. There would be 5 to 10 mins of lighter winds, and then several minutes of very strong gusts. Would like to see DVN chime in with a writeup on what caused this.
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Decent pressure bounces at MLI. Notice the dip from 10:30-10:35 pm. https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/zoa/getobext.php?sid=KMLI
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Mid to Late May 2019 Severe Threats
Southern stream replied to Quincy's topic in Central/Western States
Not to the level of Monday. But you dont have to have a historically high end environment to do big things. It only takes a very small subtle change to affect things on the large scale when it comes to an outbreak, and Monday was a very good example. -
Wake low?
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Mid to Late May 2019 Severe Threats
Southern stream replied to Quincy's topic in Central/Western States
We will have a much better picture by midmorning. The storm environment is very interesting to say the least and very much supports all hazards, so long as we get sustained convection. -
Mid to Late May 2019 Severe Threats
Misstertwister replied to Quincy's topic in Central/Western States
More incredible than Monday’s? I know that didn’t yield what was forecasted but it was talked about several days out -
I haven't looked too closely at tomorrow yet, in terms of forcing or other negatievs, but despite rising heights (which did happen on 5/25/16, for the record), virtually all models show convection by early to mid afternoon. This includes global models, CAMs and HREF suite. Given the background environment, you'd probably expect at least an upgrade to SLGT with the upcoming Day 1 outlook.
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Watch tomorrow pull a May 3! Lol. It would sure fit the theme of our set-ups recently. Know others have said this too, but it really seems like our high-end outlook days are performing like slight/enhanced, and our sneaky 5%-10% days are playing like moderate/high risks. Today basically played like a moderate in the cold core target in NE Kansas.
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Just in the next week. Things might start getting ugly
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Tomorrow’s environment is incredible. Data in the morning sounding is going to be extremely telling.
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Mid to Late May 2019 Severe Threats
Misstertwister replied to Quincy's topic in Central/Western States
To preface I don’t really know how to read soundings. I only look at that little box although i take that with a grain of salt -
26 tornado reports yesterday.... 37 reports today. Seems like the best days are usually surprises more often than not lately.
