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I haven't looked since I made it....amounts will probably be similar, anyway.

Amplified patterns with an NAO and cold…definitely worth watching.

Yea, it's a clipper.....it's like going to a hot-dog eating contest and making note of the fact that people weren't fasting.

I’d agree with that. It’s trended weaker, which should limit warm push. I think if you’re more than 10 miles from the water, you should probably be fine

Looks very reasonable. I have yet to look in depth yet (haven't even checked out bufkit) but one killer here is ratios aren't going to be great (except far interior) and lift overall probably not terribly great across the region as a whole...but all of this is rather insignificant anyways given we aren't dealing with a high ceiling anyways.

Well, the Tenn sub-forum wins the internet today. You all did good, Flash! Cute as a button. So, if flash is up watching the 0z runs…we know Flash is on the midnight baby shift!!!!

From Meteorologist Bobby Martrich on these huge changes to Friday "Last 4 runs of the GFS are comical... and it's not alone with this idea of a colder day Friday - just after Christmas. Much colder in fact, so instead of 50s you cut 25° off the high temps and get frozen precip, not rain. This goes back to the prior video discussions where I talked about models struggling in seasonal transition and being overzealous about the supposed "torch" pattern. If you're on the colder side of that thermal gradient, it's a much different outcome. This is the result of models completely whiffing on the extent of blocking in the Northern Atlantic and Atlantic Canada and a much stronger Quebec high providing the cold air damming. While we need to see this apparent trend to continue to alter the forecast, the Friday forecast could look much different if it does."

Other than far S coast no one is turning to rain though. It’s trended colder

I still like my one-and-done map from the weekend.

Fun stat for mby - every day this month has had a low below 32°. Last December had 11 lows above freezing. Obviously the streak will end in a few days but pretty interesting.

Yeah if I was making a snowfall forecast now I would go in the 1-3" range for a large area...maybe something along the lines of 3-4" for the Berks and maybe far northwest CT.

They aren't, their evolution is entirely realistic. This one is most likely going to be more of a nowcast May put together a forecast later this afternoon or early this evening.

The EPO/PNA still suck in the long range, so it won't be going January 94/85 February 2015 anytime soon but the location of the PV being on this side of the pole will mean it can easily get cold enough for snow and the -PNA means we are not in a bone dry pattern. The AO/NAO have the look of not wanting to consistently stay strongly - or + so far for more than 7-10 days and often times if thats your trend through 12/31 it stays that way all winter so those 2 may largely be non major factors. The PNA/WPO/EPO at some stage likely go through a major reversal of where they've been in the next 20-30 days and that probably decides what the 1/15-3/10 period is

I got nothing imby for that event. Thanks for ruining my day. Merry Christmas nonetheless!

Euro isn't that far off from the NAM solutions either...Euro is slightly juicier but not by a lot. I'd still be going 1-3" for most of SNE. I'd need more proof this system has the juice before putting a 2" floor on the forecast.

It will be interesting to see how well the Qubitcast does. https://www.artemis.bm/news/planette-develops-qubitcast-to-detect-severe-weather-events-up-to-six-months-in-advance/

Curious as to what your other analogs are for this setup—maybe it could provide more insight into possible outcomes.

I get what you are saying but models have no impact on each other. The GFS is not "getting other ops to move towards it" - they don't talk and aren't interconnected. The only "trend" would be from id they are all in time figuring out the solution.

But the NAM’s are far fetched. Are you calling for a coating again?

Low of 18, great radiational cooling that overperformed.

Seems like the GFS is at least a bit more impressive with the WAA. Not sure what to make out of the NAMs but I am a little concerned with them because the solutions aren't farfetched.

Lol. Stranger things have happened but I'd put the odds on that as near zero. HP under the block is way to weak to bully anything that far. You guys are in the game for now. Jan 3 2022 redux. That analog has been top 5 for 3+ days. Right now it's top 3. It won't come easy but if I still lived in Rockville I'd be pretty interested rn

This still looks more like a late blooming miller B to me. Two maxes. One in far western sections before the transfer and the second in mid coast- down east Maine, + (maybe the cape). There will be a min in between that transfer as clipper fizzles. Think less norlun, more miller B ish type evolution.

Oh, if no one knew there were some weather models added/ upgraded December 17th. AIGFS, AIGEFS and HGEFS ImplementationImplementation of the initial versions (v1.0) of the AIGFS, AIGEFS and HGEFS https://www.weather.gov/media/notification/pdf_2025/scn25-89_AIGFS_AIGEFS_and_HGEFS.pdf

The December 28 system has trended from the Canadian maritimes to the mid Atlantic due to blocking on the GFS over the last 4 runs. Definitely some volatility with unresolved strength of blocking over eastern Canada