All Activity

I guess I sensed an optimistic tone in your interpretation. Agree concerning volatility, but I think the correction vector in terms of at least the middle third of the month is warmer. Hopefully I'm wrong.

Meh.

I am somewhat intrigued by the AI more wintry scenarios and the ensembles included. They’ve performed well lately.

Yeah. Hopefully it's a quick relaxation rather than a 2 week+ change that would come close to closing down the 2026 snow season lol. For MBY I kind of want the moisture first and hope temps work. Probably the opposite of the low lands. My area has gotten burnt the last several years from south and east storm tracks. I'm not really sure what to root for anymore honestly lol.

If that Fri night low digs that far south.. it’s gonna snow

Oh snap !! When you and blizz team up, for a good one, I expect at least 3 solid inches.

NWS had my only chance at breaking freezing to be today. Yesterday they had me at 33 for the high. today they throttled it back down to mood flakes and 26. Despite the "boring" cold, we have a decent chance at statewide flakes friday and wont see above freezing for the next 7-8 days. Solid winter continues. Thanks for saving what you gave us Mo Nature.

You guys are a lock imho

Optimism? Just my interpretation. The way LR models flip there is zero Optimism.

I'm sorta done with the cold, but gladly take some more sn as we head towards the backside of winter

Rapid Reaction: A Statewide Snowstorm for the Ages - North Carolina State Climate Office

Yea heights around 540 instead of 520 but with SWFE implications. Looking forward to a warm up

here's your VD transmission day event in the Canadian ensemble. GEFs and EPS have nothing coherent above the background static left over after the big bang between the 14 and 15th. The numerical indices have no interest, either. In fact, -d(PNA), +EPO, neutralizing NAO support at minimum alleviation of cold. I think we're seeing that pretty clearly enough in the general cinemas of the operational models out there toward the middle of the month. The 06z GFS as I'm sure you remarkable storm attentive group of people are... has already been exposed. So, it is what is for the time being. Not much support from most of what's out there, with a short least of sources doing more.

I don't echo Steve's optimism that we are geared up for a conveyor belt of prime threats. I think it's going to be a messy month that will scrap and claw it's way to near climo snowfall in SNE.

MRX mentioned that snow cover was having a big effect on temps and that even lower elevations may have a mix of rain and snow this afternoon and then tomorrow night maybe a dusting to a few tenths of an inch of snow.

Here’s the 11-15 day on the EPS. Hopefully we can shoe horn in some snow.

My lowest temp was 20.3 at 10:54pm. 24.4 currently.

Looking at the HGR records that go back to 1899 this has been the worst 4 year stretch ( maybe 5 year stretch soon) since they've been keeping records. First time HGR has gone 4 seasons straight with less than 20" of snow. Northern MD and the I-81 corridor compared to average has been the worst spot in the region for several years now lol

Hopefully one of those deals after this weekend is wintry. We certainly walk the line.

I think next winter the models will be re-programmed with the reality that it doesn't snow in Wake County.

Long range GFS & Euro Op runs are starting to entertain the idea of a Valentine/PD weekend Winter storm chance, just like their AI versions have shown over the last couple of days at times.

I'm not saying it's a warm-sector with all rain...but it's probably a mess for SNE.

Back broken for arctic cold after this weekend.

The problem is h5 looks quite a bit different on current ens guidance for that period compared to a 3-4 days ago. The developing NE Pac Nina ridge is stronger and we end up with a largely mild Pacific air mass for the mid month period. Not much cold around as currently advertised. Still subject to change ofc given we are 10 days out. As usual, we just cant know yet.

Yup.