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You’re understandably frustrated and I get it. You and I among many, both live in an area that should get multiple opportunities per year and we are lucky to get 1 shot every 3/4 seasons of late. I just think we’ve all got to take a breath. The models were showing near record temps for the exact period we’re talking about just a week ago, and now we’ve got fantasy storms. I’m not in any way discounting the EPS or the Euro Op - you’re 100% correct: nothing concrete is shown but an emerging -NAO, -AO, cold on our side of hemisphere and an active southern jet is all we can ask for at the moment. The way the models have performed, I don’t think we can definitively say yes/no to a storm any time soon. The trend is our friend right now, so I’ll take it.

.5-6” ok. Got it.

First watch of the year! We take!!

Well as long as ur looking forward to it

For those who care about such things: LOL

Yeah not impressed with that one but there's a ton of moving pieces still

30.2F Light snow 1" Vis est 1.5 miles

I’ll be the first to say I need assistance via @GaWxto help with some case studies but I’d argue a big reason we’ve lacked winter storms in recent years comes down to the lack of a -NAO, which fortunately, the models are starting to catch up and show. We’ve lacked that for multiple seasons to help keep the cold bottled up on the east coast. Friday is prime example of how snowpack can help. Most of the models have a 1030ish HP to our north. That is never going to cut it unless the source region for our cold isn’t modifying. That snowpack is going to be a tremendous help in making sure that it doesn’t. It basically saves us from being dependent on a 1035+ in a perfect position to advect cold, dry air.

35F holding on to the dusting

Hey buddy, I wondered what happened to you. Glad you are still around.

Yes and where it sits for a bit double digits possible. i volunteer

I think its time I took a break since I seem to be coming off the way I am.

There will be one of those

Not remembering a November storm fitting that description from 19 yrs in Calhoun Cnty, when was that?

cant wait for my cold rain

Can you throw up a PWM one?

Looks like another interior event. Who could have guessed

Supposed to land jfk at 4pm Tuesday. Hoping I drive home to some white but not too much.

A quick visit by the Arctic hounds.

Wow

I'm surprised some of this morning's dusting has stuck around. One wouldn't expect that during the daytime this early in the season. I just noticed they dropped my progged Thursday night low to 7. Man cold so early in the season.

A very chilly 32° here at WXW2 with -SN. Drive up was a little dicey but nothing crazy.

First long range hrrr for the storm is in and it looks like gfs/euro

A rapidly intensifying coastal storm can certainly have a heavy band even if moving quickly. I’m talking 1-2”/hour

Most models and ensemble solutions have come into agreement more closely on the precise low track through coastal GA/SC and directly up the East Coast, positioning us on the far northern edge. This track places the transition zone along and south of I-70 and along and east of the Ohio river. Areas north and west of this have a better shot to remain all snow and therefore have a higher chance of seeing 2-4" snowfall totals. South and east of this, precip types may be an issue for snowfall accumulation with a wintry mix more likely in this region. Probabilities for Advisory level snow have climbed across much of the region (save for the Mon Valley) compared to 24 hours ago. Probabilities for Warning level snow remain largely between 10-20% at their highest. Snowfall rates of 1"/hour seem possible in the heaviest snowfall, likely during the predawn hours of Tuesday morning. These rates peak in several stripes running SW to NE across the region, highlighting embedded heavier bands in the stratiform snow. Neighborhood probabilities for 1"/hour rates peak as high as 60-80% in SE Ohio near the I-70 corridor, but are at least 20-30% across much of the region. Stout 850mb WAA racing up the spine of the Appalachians points towards the possibility of freezing rain in the Mon Valley and eastern ridges early Tuesday morning. These chances remain highest in our WV ridges, where the best WAA will be. Further west towards the Ohio river, there could still could be freezing rain if the WAA over performs but current model soundings point towards a period of melting snow or sleet. Ice accumulations of a glaze up to a few hundredths could be possible by Tuesday morning, highest in the WV ridges. At this time a Winter Weather Advisory looks likely for much of the area for accumulating snowfall and then perhaps another in the ridges for possible ice. We could end up in a situation where the only areas that do not need a Winter Weather Advisory would be portions of the Mon Valley, where snowfall totals will be kept in check by low SLRs/rainfall and freezing rain chances are lower than just east in the ridges. No matter the headline decision, the Tuesday morning commute could be a messy and potentially dangerous one across the region. Please allow for extra time to reach your destinations and we urge extra caution on area roadways.