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6z gfs saves scooter’s marriage and his kids still love him…

0z Eps and Geps snowfall pattern at 360hrs sure look similar to me. Never saw that before. And no detailed dissection of the snowy 6z Gfs? Lol

Well, all I issued was a threat assessment.....but it's still bad practice to have to scale back from that preliminary stuff. I really hedged on mentioning 6"+. Sometimes I play hunches.

Winter has arrived.

Pretty much the same for me except I don't know the exact dates.

Turned into more of a classic nw to se gradient, which isn't great for me....was hoping it would be more of a longitudinal deal.

Lol You’re like my boy at the blackjack table…he’s down a G but ain’t getting up.

Difficult pattern with a lot of NS chaos. Probably more error associated with initial conditions, and maybe not enough data in some cases.

6z cmc a good hit

Deepest darkest New England?

Not sure I seen models be like 150 miles apart this close before. Maybe the usual 25-50 but this is comedy

I did that storm on WWBB. That was my first winter posting. I had lurked previously…even back to ne.weather in the 2000-01 season.

best climo

Yeah, its like we have three different camps instead of the usual two

I was in so deep on this no choice but to ride it out and hope for the best....even just a widespread advisory would allow me to save some face. lol

Only a couple days above freezing until February. February arrives with a torch which by then will be much wanted.

@WinterWolfdid the AFD

Maybe a storm where First and Final are backed up consecutively...late Fri night/Sat night.

My joined Eastern on Aug 30th, 2006 and then lurked for a month before starting to post....man, I was a weenie. First winter on here being 2006-2007 was brutal...that was @Stormchaserchuck1's "This will be the warmest winter on record in the east" season, and he was pretty close. December may have been the worst I have ever seen.

Very snowy times ahead. Reggie making a comeback from 2015 to lead the model war, joined by a new school of players…the bots.

06z OP euro moved a decent amount. It has advisory snows into SE MA now. Just need one more solid tick and a chunk of eastern zones would get in on high end advisory or low end warning stuff.

just a little light trolling in the banter thread hope that nonsense busts obv

Maybe I'm off base here but I think our biggest indicator is whether or not Bob Chill is posting. He comes when there are legit threats inside 120 hours (or maybe even shorter, 72). Unsurprisingly he hasn't been here the last last 3-4 weeks since the good December pattern ended. If and when he reappears, we're in business.

I think the key next week will be how deep a trough we can get out West. All winter long the models have been too aggressive in digging those troughs beyond 168 hrs. We actually need the Southeast ridge to put up some resistance so the overrunning doesn’t get suppressed. The EPS doesn’t dig as much energy into the west so it’s less amped up with the overrunning in the East. It’s been a while since once of these overrunning set ups produced more than 4” from EWR to ISP. But we saw how back in December we finally got two clippers to work out for 4”+. Maybe it’s possible we can finally get a decent overrunning event here. But it’s still way too early to know for sure exactly where the nest overrunning zone sets up. We really want to get to within the 120hr mark for the details to come into clearer focus. At least the potential is there. Whether the potential gets realized is another story. EPS diggs less energy west so overrunning is further south than GEFS

gm euro should come in on board by 0z run tonight