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treys fall winter severe weather tornado forecast is out now .

Although GFS might be too far east, I don't know if those western solutions are realistic either. GFS and Euro seem to develop a vort related to convection and the solutions result in the differences we see. GFS has the convection further east. Also, could the Euro guidance be treating this as more warm core, and therefore be more prone to sling west with the environmental flow? Whereas something that is becoming more extratropical may want to move more to the N and NE where the better combo of warm air advection and positive vorticity is maximized. I'm just thinking out loud.

It may ramp up more over the next two days…that’s a distinct and plausible possibility.

Although we’re days away and it’s already pretty breezy out

Euro way west of 0z

Definitely but probably need winds over 40mph for that to be an issue.

It’s gonna be a significant storm for SNE. Heavy rain and gusty winds- 25-40 inland. 45-60 at the coast. There you go.

Euro and Euro AI basically have the same idea...but it's nothing super impressive. However, makes me think the eastern solutions are probably going to correct west even if Euro and Ai correct east a bit.

Also, the ground is pretty saturated from the prior rain storms we've had this summer/autumn. With high winds, I'd be concerned about a lot of trees falling.

This will be like the blizzard was in Feb. On the Wednesday before the blizzard hit(which it hit on a Sunday, like this is likely going to), the storm was gone…folks wrote it off. Then on Thursday afternoon it came back, and it went back to the big storm scenario like it was earlier that week. This will do the same as far as the modeling goes.

Hard to say for the city proper. But we're having east/northeast winds right now which is piling up water so I would think moderate at least for LI/CT/NJ coasts

Euro looks similar to 6z..slingshot west. Says Tblizz had better contact divorce attorney

had to turn on the heat last night..

Euro coming west

Brian, how bad would the coastal flooding be in NYC if this track were to verify closely? Would it be very high impact for the city?

There are two AOI in the Atlantic being monitored by the NHC, Invest 90L just off Africa and a possible regenerating Fay: Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Wed Sep 23 2026 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America: 1. Far Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL90): An area of low pressure located a couple of hundred miles southwest off the coast of western Africa is gradually becoming better defined, and the associated shower and thunderstorm activity has increased since yesterday. This system could become a short-lived tropical depression on Thursday or Friday while it moves northwestward to northward. However, strong upper-level winds should end the opportunity for development by the weekend. Interests in the Cabo Verde Islands should monitor the progress of this system as gusty winds, areas of heavy rain and flash flooding is possible there by Friday. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent. 2. Central Subtropical Atlantic (Former Tropical Storm Fay): Showers and thunderstorms have increased with the remnants of Fay located several hundred miles southwest of the Azores. While environmental conditions are only marginally conducive for development, this system could become a tropical depression again today or tonight if the current thunderstorm activity persists. The system is forecast to move westward during the next couple of days, and by the weekend upper-level winds should inhibit formation chances. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent. Forecaster Blake

12z EURO is the same track its been for a while. Slams it into Long Island and retrogrades west. The low weakens while it does this.

12z Euro looks to be incoming

Great to hear!

End of next week could have a couple warm days but some growing support for a very robust cold shot early in October

They are

Exactly

12z EURO AI looks pretty much the same as the 6z did