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A former coworker moved to that area and he was amazed by the microclimate that exists there.

just analyzing the last several cycles of this guy ... the reason it is so robust isn't really rocket science. It's straight up meeting the bombogenesis check list. 1004 mb --> 987 type spread in 12 hours is sufficient. But what comes along with that is the total potency in the deep layer... There's clearly going to be a whopper frontogenic band with something UVM exotic in the 700 mb ...probably smack in the growth region of the sounding - just based off the (synoptic + experience)/2 one doesn't really even have to look at the software to see that's the case. The question is ... is it all right ? proooobably not. I gotta say, back in the headier days of 2005, the then ETA ( I think it was still the ETA? but either way) was pimping a bomb big time, and the reason was pretty clear why then. I'm not sure I'm seeing that set up here, because the antecedent frontal/thermal compression from NJ to Cape Cod is not nearly as extreme in this case. I think the NAM is over processing in that lower levels as systemic bias in that model - it's probably why it has a NW bias in its outer ranges, one that it then sans when it gets closer and exposes said bias... But, that actually helps it do better than other guidance when the situation is like Dec 2005 set up.

That's one small lot for JAN(uary), one giant start for the season.

Fundamentally handling the vort differently this run....keeping it strong into N Ohio....it's gonna be a warm/zonked run.

Not gonna happen cause it went poof. Bluewave is right. We either get cutters/coastal huggers like Tues, or when the actual cold is in place like this weekend, suppressed tracks. The atmosphere in the 2020s is finding every way to not track a low up the benchmark when there's cold air around in the east. It's like a lesson in how to not get snow

The Great Bay being some 10 miles inland is an important factor that I think only the locals can fully appreciate.

Cold day on tap here at WXW2. Man cold with the wind chill around 10°. Could see -20 WC later this week.

Forum moderators may still redefine the headlining thresholds. Have heard from one. I do not hide behind reiterating the obvious variabilities and I don't want to be too wordy.. come to bat...see the ball and give it my best swing at an encompassing useful set of info and go from there. No one should complain tomorrow if there are any morning delays. The complaints can be profuse if its overkill and I'll stomach the wrong headline. All the NWS and non-NWS tools that I know ion were balanced applied. We on the forum gave useful days lead time and information on how to consider a disruptive event even if for only a few hours whether air or sfc travel. mPing event coming to NYC I think despite the warmer cycles. NYC probably no go on measurable sleet snow due to temps at sunrise near 36. CoCoRaHs obs Wed am as well as posters and ASOS/AWOS will answer. For now... edge snow snow-sleet-ice just nw of I95.

HRRR is likely overdone. N ORH county jack with the max axis to the NH/MA border by Ray is my call.

Oh good for you!

I know several people who live in that area and they would agree with your post..

NAM will probably nuke closer to the cape if it did that at 6z.

TBH.... I don't expect the roads to be snowy during the daytime on Tuesday around the Hartford area, but once the sun goes down, I think that will change.

Yeah that is going to be a factor with a marginal airmass on the cp

It’s also going to be cold tonight in those spots that get snow. Should have no issue sticking if you’re near 32 or below. Hell 33F aggies will have no issue sticking.

Epstein mentioned the non-frozen ground as a factor for roads in his podcast this morning (just for the marginal areas).

The mesos have been flagging ptype issues off an on for a while along the coast. Now the euro saying the same. FV3 hi-res also been very warm.

NAM is gonna be more amped than 06z just based on 12 hour panel.

This is what I mean. Once it locked in…it was deadly. Whatever they did to it(supposedly to make it better), totally messed it up. And all the upgrades since have made it even worse. What a dam shame. Talk about if ain’t broke, don’t fix it. And it’s hilarious how some pros will defend it till the end, and say it’s better now cuz it nails the 850’s in the Southern Hemisphere down in Argentina.

Let’s get Dendrite CF enhancement.

The daytime onset is just a very marginal factor negatively affecting an already very marginal snow setup. It would be more credible to stack a warm ground 50F SST’s and the daytime onset for reasons against going higher.

Yeah between ~ Nov 10 and Feb 10, that range gets the lowest insolation. We can get away with at least holding ice between 10 and 2pm in icing situations at 32/no new... vs losing at that same temperature and marginal condition outside that date range.

Lol, basically has no snow in SNE outside of far N ORH county and N Berkshires. Completely different evolution though...doesn't close off 850 until way later than other guidance.

When people lump my climo in with DAW…while I’m 8 miles southeast… and 200 ft lower in elevation. Just shake my head. This is like the 20th time in 10 years that the coastal front will be right over my head.