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oh yeah, next year is gonna suck. I said that a month ago.

Agreed

Yea, wasn't intended to be a lecture or anything....I just happen to quote your post because we were discussing. Thanks, I appreciate the positive feedback. It was not perfect and I do see room for improvement...will all be discussed in May.

I get that Ray that's why I thought it was a good forecast. Not an A+ here but damn good for my first Maine winter.

Very strong -QBO and high solar is a dead-ringer for +TNH....that crap about solar max always being warm is BS....solar max and conspire with certain stratospheric set ups to facilitate some of the most consistently cold regimes possible.

Coming my way

Best winter in at least a decade and possibly the last 15 years! Once 40 point blowout loss cannot diminish this great season. I liken today's 80 degree day to St John's season. 18-2 Big East record including them winning 16 out of their last seventeen games. Their only loss during the final two months of the regular season was not only of their most embarrassing losses in not only program history, but maby their worst Big East conference game that they have ever played!

C minus minus here

Snow beginning here. The more persistent band is setting up to my north as modeled. Guessing we’ll see about an inch.

Pontiac cell looks like it may be tightening back up a bit

I also wrote about the value of 2015, despite that it was a warm ENSO....highly anomalously cold several week stretch from +TNH regime January into Feb.

Yea, we haven't had much of that...coming later this week.

Perfect way to develop a composite...come up with a cast of characters, and explain that none of them are intended to be an exact prototype of the coming seasons, and then explain the role that each season will play and when it will appear. This what I love about winter forecasts...such an art form.

Even when we had rain it barely moved.

For you, it definitely was an A winter. For us in the urban jungle, not so much

Should I go to Pontiac cell or new one in between

Yeah, came back north quick. SBN jumped from 59/54 to 68/60 in an hour.

Wading River, LI. B+ seems right. Nothing wrong with that, just not quite top tier for snowfall or cold.

But it wasn't up against as hostile conditions...March was cold.

I wrote in this year's piece about how analogs are not mean to be interpreted as precise, absolute reenactments, but rather cast of actors that each have a cameo throughout the course of a film .....some of my big ones have showed up....2014 (+TNH), 2022 (+TNH), Latter January big dog, 2000, early season reversal, 2018, late season SSW followed by record warmth.

Kinda interesting how areas further east in IN/MI/OH might have a higher tornado chance than expected later because of where the front is

It was packed tight from the wind and weight. Up here i have mud, hoping for freezing nights soon.

Record heat prevailed across parts of the region. Records were set at Central Park, LaGuardia Airport, and New York. Central Park achieved New York City's earliest-season 80° reading. Tomorrow will be another springlike day in much of the region. Temperatures will generally top out in the 60s. Some 70s are possible in the warmer spots, especially in interior New Jersey. Long Island and coastal sections could be noticeably cooler than interior sections on a number of days on account of a chilly onshore flow. Afterward, it will turn cooler but not especially cold through the weekend. A shot of much cooler air could arrive early next week. However, with the AO likely to remain generally positive, the cool period likely won't be as prolonged as had been the case during this past winter's cold regimes. There may be a short window of opportunity for some snow, but snow is not assured. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.9°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.1°C for the week centered around March 4. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.80°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.23°C. Neutral ENSO conditions have now developed. Neutral ENSO conditions will continue through at least mid-spring. The SOI was +19.86 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +3.319 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 61% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal March (1991-2020 normal). March will likely finish with a mean temperature near 44.0° (1.2° above normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 1.5° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

SPC might was well pull the trigger now Mesoscale Discussion 0191 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0453 PM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026 Areas affected...portions of eastern Iowa into northern Illinois and southwestern lower Michigan. Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 102153Z - 102330Z Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent SUMMARY...Scattered elevated supercells and bowing segments appear likely this afternoon/evening north of the east-west warm front. A risk for significant hail and damaging gusts is possible. A WW is likely needed shortly. DISCUSSION...As of 2145 UTC, mesoanalysis and radar observations showed an east-west oriented warm front stretching from eastern IA, across northern IL into southern lower MI. South of the front, temperatures in the 70s and 80s F amid mid to upper 60s F surface dewpoints are supporting moderate to large buoyancy of 2000-3000 J/kg of MLCAPE. Strong destabilization is also ongoing in an elevated manner along and north of the boundary with 1500-2500 J/kg of MUCAPE despite cooler surface temperatures. Strong mid-level flow is overspreading the boundary supporting deep veering wind profiles supportive of organized severe storms. Weak surface convergence southeast of the front has ignited several supercells across northern IL this afternoon. As storms cross out of the Tornado Watch and the front, they will become elevated. With robust buoyancy and deep-layer shear greater than 50 kt, they are likely to remain intense and capable of large to very large hail. Recent CAM guidance and surface convergence near a surface low in IA/MO suggest numerous storms will develop within the elevated regime over the next few hours. With time, these initial supercells are likely to grow upscale into elevated bows or clusters with a continued hail threat and possibly damaging winds associated with strong gravity waves propagating along the top of the stable surface layer. Given the increasing severe threat, a new WW is likely needed for eastern IA into northern IL and portions of western lower MI. ..Lyons/Hart.. 03/10/2026