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The colors used to represent the temperatures are ridiculous and misleading. It's an obvious ploy to make things look as if the world is on fire. Go back to a chart made 20 years ago and the color representations aren't nearly as extreme.

Yes I remember you referenced the early 1970s a couple of winters ago as the type of pattern to look for and not coincidentally we had a streak of bad winters then too.

81 here seeing near or the same in C-N - NJ

Certainly not 3 or 4 degree annual adjustments for years in a row are not supported by any data at all!

Fake news as usual - High temp times so far this month 1st - 322p / 2nd 441p/ 3rd 434pm / 4th 2:17pm...be better my man!!

anyone getting close to 130 degrees out there lol?

Latest Euro keeps the strongest heat this summer out West with a wetter pattern for us.

why is the western pacific running the show and why isn't the eastern pacific warming as quickly?

Especially if one chooses to go back and forth. My father-in-law and I went up Hunt in August 1973. As he'd hiked his scout troop all over the AT in NNJ/SNY, the trail's northernmost 5 miles was the obvious route. He was willing to wait at the summit while I went to Pamola and back, 2.2 miles in 1:50. Next summer a co-worker and I climbed the Abol trail, shortest (and hottest!) way to the top. The lower half of the open slide section was moved into the woods some years back, but in 1974 we baked in the steep south aspect all the way. In October 1972 we visited Baxter

85.6°/68.6° at 10:30am. Gross.

Oh look more smoke.

I am not at all implying 2014 is a good Pacific match....all I am saying is that I don't think it will be a bad arctic analog...that said, I won't be suprised if get a decent look around AK next season, just not to the extent of 2014.

One aspect I've noticed over the many years of guidance behavior ...and actually have use it/anticipated it at times, is that the general model ambit will flavor a pattern like that above, or its antithesis, with surprising coherence sometimes in time ranges of D11-15, only to then lose it. In fact, the interim runs as the days then click by, even attempting to reverse the signal in mangled forms and discontinuity from run to run. All but lost. But then the original signal ultimately came back ... say D5-7, just perhaps not as amplified as the original vision.

Charlie so why again are all stations you mentioned Coatesville, West Chester and Phoenixville all clearly chilling the past and warming the current. See the raw vs adjusted for each below.

why does his station drop at noon every day?

You've been telling me the problem is the act of making corrections or even just determining if there are biases, errors, or mistakes is fraudulent and should never be done under any circumstance.

MDR region cool-might inhibit some tropical formation this year if that holds...

That is simpy an equal chance outlook... far from a forecast. The extended Euro and GFS models paint a normal to below month - not saying there won't be a warmer week in the mix.

2014 is in a class of its own for QBO matches right now......its also a pretty damn good match for solar, too....so more reason to be skeptical of much arctic blocking. We are probably going to need to get it done on the Pacific side, which is what the CANSIPS does. That is also consistent with my very early idea, but extremely low confidence obviously.

Still a vague signal for heat circa 11th -15th ... It's not as pretty in the guidance as 3 days ago, but the telecon spread offers correlation room for it, and there is some attempt - albeing weakly at presetnt - in the operational model versions to -PNAP that flow structure across the mid latitude continent. That's code for this kind of jet (tendency) ... If it fades, it fades ... but the signal's still there.

81/63

SST Anomaly