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They are but what I'm saying is we often see H5 forecasts that don't make sense with 2m temp forecasts. You'll see a forecast in the medium range for a massive ridge over Alaska in January with a flow directly from the north pole into the northern plains and the 2m temp anomalies will show normal or barely below normal. This is where you look at that map and realize it would be frigid in that location if that actual H5 forecast verified.
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July 2025 Obs/Disco ... possible historic month for heat
ineedsnow replied to Typhoon Tip's topic in New England
All of CT isn't and seems like that map has the hottest spots.. BTW it's 87/66 here -
July 2025 Obs/Disco ... possible historic month for heat
dendrite replied to Typhoon Tip's topic in New England
Beer? I posted indices. Almost everyone north of the Pike is upper 90s except for the few in hilltowns with cars on blocks -
Maybe so, but keep in mind that H5 forecasts are sometimes pretty lousy, themselves.
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July 2025 Obs/Disco ... possible historic month for heat
ineedsnow replied to Typhoon Tip's topic in New England
Lots of upper 80s and very low 90s seems pretty normal for july -
July 2025 Obs/Disco ... possible historic month for heat
ineedsnow replied to Typhoon Tip's topic in New England
Those are temps -
July 2025 Obs/Disco ... possible historic month for heat
ineedsnow replied to Typhoon Tip's topic in New England
Maybe some hit it but not many -
It’s likely too late + the second half schedule is brutal, but the Os have gotten it back to 9 under .500 after bottoming out at 18 under earlier in the season.
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July 2025 Obs/Disco ... possible historic month for heat
Torch Tiger replied to Typhoon Tip's topic in New England
Dendy just posted it -
July 2025 Obs/Disco ... possible historic month for heat
ineedsnow replied to Typhoon Tip's topic in New England
Where is it 95 to 100? -
July 2025 Obs/Disco ... possible historic month for heat
ineedsnow replied to Typhoon Tip's topic in New England
It's July it gets to 90.. all I'm saying most sites aren't seeing advisory heat -
July 2025 Obs/Disco ... possible historic month for heat
Torch Tiger replied to Typhoon Tip's topic in New England
HI's 95-100 is a dead-on heat advisory -
July 2025 Obs/Disco ... possible historic month for heat
dendrite replied to Typhoon Tip's topic in New England
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July 2025 Obs/Disco ... possible historic month for heat
Typhoon Tip replied to Typhoon Tip's topic in New England
just for general ... there's a massive heat signal from ~ the 18th thru the end of the month. More impressively so say 21ish to 27-like. Huge -EPO whilst the PNA is negative is hemispheric climo footprint for Chicago to go body baggin' and with the NAO tending to be positive that's all academic after that. It's a helluva long way away, but I don't see us being BN before that either. hot month -
July 2025 Obs/Disco ... possible historic month for heat
dendrite replied to Typhoon Tip's topic in New England
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July 2025 Obs/Disco ... possible historic month for heat
ineedsnow replied to Typhoon Tip's topic in New England
Do you honestly think a heat advisory was needed today? -
July 2025 Obs/Disco ... possible historic month for heat
Torch Tiger replied to Typhoon Tip's topic in New England
Gorgeous out there, near-perfect -
July 2025 Obs/Disco ... possible historic month for heat
powderfreak replied to Typhoon Tip's topic in New England
I'm the biggest cold fan out there, trust me. Just call it like I see it, ha. -
July 2025 Obs/Disco ... possible historic month for heat
CoastalWx replied to Typhoon Tip's topic in New England
Man ACATT tries. It’s cute. -
Quite Frankly, models suck with 2m temp anomalies in the medium range, never mind a seasonal forecast. It's pretty much useless to look at IMO. They are a little better with 850 temp anomalies but not much. It's best to just look at their 500mb anomaly forecasts and that will give you an idea on what temp anomalies would be if that particular map was to come to fruition.
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July 2025 Obs/Disco ... possible historic month for heat
Lava Rock replied to Typhoon Tip's topic in New England
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Unfortunately, some people are too naive, stubborn, ignorant or deluded by others to recognize the preponderance of actual evidence and real world events that point to an oncoming conclusion. Just how it is- they then hear their own echo chamber or are goaded by others. For the greater good- I think these people should be politely ignored by those not so afflicted. See Isaac Cline - 1900 Galveston Hurricane.
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2025-2026 ENSO
40/70 Benchmark replied to 40/70 Benchmark's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
I feel pretty good about next season not being a complete blood bath is all I mean. -
E PA/NJ/DE Summer 2025 Obs/Discussion
RedSky replied to Hurricane Agnes's topic in Philadelphia Region
ECM also a nothing burger .25" or less from the depression Considering a butterfly flapping it's wings has been making it rain heavy I doubt guidance