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Wednesday could be pretty gnarly in the region especially if the 18z Euro or 00z NAM 3 km are on the right track.

The 6 hr forecast here goes between nothing and 2". Each has verified and have had their inverse verify. There is no radar in Puerto Vallarta. Only is satellite. Everyone here just accepts that it's either going to rain nothing or rain 2 in in an hour and there isn't anything anyone can ever forecast and do anything about it it's kind of great Sent from my SM-G970U1 using Tapatalk

I was gone for a while but your melt the other day was an all timer. Short and sweet. As I hope you’ve seen by now, this place is just for laughs. There’s plenty of ribbing and sometimes it’s brutal lol but for the most part it’s all “love”. I like my summers but given where you came from I get wanting to have cooler summers. Imagine it…an early July day with a deep summer feel…90/68 with beach, barbecues, brews, and bikinis as far as the eye can see…kids laughing playing in the sand, the sound of cans opening and bottles clinking as the waves roll in. Phones down, music up. The way it’s meant to be.

Actually looks photoshopped

i would not mind it if was gloomy and misty all summer...

earth could be falling into the sun and the park wont hit 100 degrees..

.09”. Good for the grass.

Thanks. I looked at Eastman earlier today as my relatives have a house by the lake and are ECA owners. Weird to see aeration in mid-May and not late March /early April. Will look into Lake Morey.

At least we haven't had to hear about siphoning water from the mid-Atlantic to Mars or chopping down the forests of Canada for a day or two. I think we've gone at least three days without insecticide warfare against ticks too.

I almost bet on Indiana in 6. Starting to think that not doing so was wise.

Not me. At this point, I’m just hoping for 2 months of summer.

Got another 0.85" this afternoon for exactly 4.00" today. 6.76" two day total.

This is an objectively horrendous weather pattern for mid-June.

Very photogenic storm

a 6 day heatwave during the climo peak heating period, do you know offhand the peak highs of that period for our three airports and the park, Tony?

Most recently we'll have to beat the Jul 19 - 24 , 2022 period.

I dont know how anyone could miss so much gloom and rain. Sunny and 70s is a different story.

I dont think this is going to be a 7+ day superheatwave ala 2013 or 2002 or 1999 or 1993. I think we can hit 90 or higher from Sunday to Thursday which is a 5 day heatwave.

You have to say the most intense heat since 2011, since the temperatures were higher in 2011 than they were in 2010 (although 2010 had the hotter summer and more 100 degree / 95 degree / 90 degree days of course. If it gets to 100 areawide consider that historic especially for June.

This reminds me of how we model *track* snowstorms in the winter. We have to factor climo in, the chances of getting 103+ temps ANY time, let alone June, which is the coolest of the three summer months, are about as high as getting a 30 inch snowstorm. Yes it can happen, but the chances are slim.

Do the 18z EPS look as hot as the 12z did?

18Z GFS had a backdoor cold front on Wednesday. The winds back to northeast dropping temperatures back towards more reasonably quite warm to maringally hot levels by Thursday. The GFS is extremely erratic, however, and the ECMWF a little less-so. But also the EPS trended slightly less hot than prior runs. So, wait to see more before forecasting high temperatures in the 105-108 degree range. I think we will have a chance of our first heatwave of the season and maybe the most intense heat since 2010 but we really do not know for sure yet, there's lots of time prior to next week for things to change. WX/PT

61 with rain showers at the moment; tad humid but don’t think we reached 65 today. I will miss this when it’s 98/72.