All Activity

Here is a short paper I cam across recently that was eye-opening to me. It shows that it goes beyond just absolute SST values and OHC depth for TC RI. Paper attached. Why Do Eastern North Pacific Hurricanes Intensify More and Faster than Their Western-Counterpart Typhoons with Less Ocean Energy? We show that eastern North Pacific hurricanes reach a given intensity 15% faster on average than western North Pacific typhoons despite having half the available ocean heat content. Eastern North Pacific hurricanes also intensify on average 16% more with a given ocean energy (i.e., air–sea enthalpy flux) than western North Pacific typhoons. As efficient intensifiers, eastern Pacific hurricanes remain small during their intensification period, tend to stay at lower latitudes, and are affected by relatively lower vertical wind shear, a colder troposphere, and a drier boundary layer. Despite a shallower warm upper-ocean layer in the eastern North Pacific, average hurricane-induced sea surface cooling there is only slightly larger than in the western North Pacific due to the opposing influences of stronger density stratification, smaller size, and related wave-interaction effects. In contrast, western North Pacific typhoons encounter a more favorable oceanic environment for development, but several factors cause typhoons to greatly increase their size during intensification, resulting in a slow and inefficient intensification process. The NW Pac has the most widespread high SSTs and high OHC than anywhere else on the globe, yet the ern Pac "beats" it in the TC RI dept! The takeaway I got from an overall perspective, you can't always treat atmospheric phenomena and the system as linear and intuitive. Complex systems do not work that way. Also, the more you learn, the more you realize there is a lot to learn! That is accurate, and a good thing. No matter how long you are in a field and well-versed, there is always more. bams-BAMS-D-21-0131.1.pdf

The line: in the X post: Totally normal things happening in the Pacific Hard to say if this is being facetious or serious, as if their is something "wrong" b/c the Pacific is so active for TC. What @TheDreamTraveler says is correct in a global pattern sense. How? It has long been observed, regardless of ENSO, when the Atlantic is active, the Pacific is not, and vice versa. Of course, it is not always like this, but nothing is in the wx patterns and what happens is 100%, just noting it occurs most of the time in a given NHEMI TC season. Note: You do not have to take my word for it, you can go here and crunch the numbers yourself! https://tropical.atmos.colostate.edu/Realtime/ During the inactive period the Atlantic had 1970-94, the Pacific was very active. Since the active period started in the Atlantic in 1995, the Pacific overall net activity has been significantly down, esp. in the NW Pacific, which constitutes 38% of avg annual ACE globally (more than double any other TC basin). Look at this stat: For the NW Pacific, 2020-2025 was below average ACE each year, as low as 51% for ACE in 2020. In fact, the total ACE for this 6-year period was only 66% of average, which is the lowest 6-year ACE on record for this basin going back to 1950. Getting more specific as to individual years, it has long been observed when El Nino exists, the Atlantic TC activity for that season that El Nino starts is suppressed, and the Pacific is active, and the stronger the El Nino, the more pronounced it is in each basin. So what is going on in 2026 exactly matches empirical observations of the past is an completely normal as far as sensible wx. Yes, it is an extreme at both ends here, but that does not mean something is "wrong" w/ the wx or global pattern. I see a trend here and there that the presence of any big swings or extremes in wx is somehow unusual and not supposed to happen *at all*. That is ridiculous and represents a fundamental misunderstanding as to how the Earth's system works naturally. Don't get me wrong, very strong El Nino does some wild things to the global pattern and sensible wx, but it is par for the course in the large picture. And such wild El Ninos are nothing new. Look up the 1877-78 one. Also in recent decades, the base state of the ENSO region has trended more La Nina overall, and that partially explains why the Atlantic has been so active since 1995. Atlantic activity is also tied to the phase of the AMO, which has been favorable. If things hold to the AMO cycle since the mid-19th century, the AMO flip should occur within the next 10 years and we should see a reduction overall in TC activity in the Atlantic. One more item, it is rare to have all TC basins the world to all be suppressed (below avg) in a given year. It has happened a few times, like in 1977 and 2009, but usually at least one is active (above avg), so again what @TheDreamTraveler said is valid -- "that energy has to go somewhere!" It is all connected the end, just not always easy to see how in a given year, and thus what will happen overall!

we lost power in New City Rockland briefly at 4 am but it came back quickly,,,,,,,I am not sure how far inland that the winds will be an issue but looking at the radar it appears to me that the moisture is getting pretty far to my west

Another nice band rotating through with some good gusts mixed in. Honestly this storm has been fun to track and experience, especially this evening with all the rain and the classic howling wind sounds we’ve come to expect during a coastal storm. It sort of feels like we’re making up for all those missed t-storms that always seemed to fizzle out west this past summer, although nothing beats a couple good house shaking rumbles. For now, let’s keep that firehose going!

Your ignorance is showing. My pumping rates have everything to do with rainfall. Been doing this for 20 years. .

that was a earlier number from the park we have picked up more then half since then..

that has nothing to do with rainfall.

Yea, MC is going down...pretty clear.

I guess all the energy absent from the Atlantic has to go somewhere https://x.com/JaydonShawwx/status/2103657217673384075

I work at the NYC DEP WASTEWATER TREATMENT PLANT in Manhattan and can tell you we are pumping max design flow of 350 Million Gallons right now. Half inch my ass. .

Fallacious argument. The trouble w/ the "ppl are dying!" argument is that it essentially dictates that anything less than death is trivial and not worth discussing. That is among the most vapid and intellectually lazy rebuttals around. Can you objectively say these fatalities would not have occurred anyway if there were more reaonsble and less-hyped warnings? Not every fatality is due to not enough warnings or alerts. Many ppl will ignore warnings and go out/take risks despite warnings b/c they have become apathetic to the relentless hype. Some ppl just plain resist authority/being told what to do. And some do take warnings seriously, stay home, and a tree crashes into their home, causing a fatality. All the warnings in the world is not going to prevent something like that from happening. So I would avoid the high-horse, virtue signaling here and understand that more is not always better and things are not a simple 1-1 correlation when it comes to complex societal issues.

What

Light rain. Winds arent bad.

1.15"

Although winds cancelled for Kev. Another let down for him. Even I thought CT would do better overnight. Probably too inverted.

I suspect PSU/Steelers folk among us are going to find out over the next few months that neither James Franklin nor Mike Tomlin was the problem.

Where are you getting that number from?

Vortex95 needs context before quoting people

That was a joke lol. Trolling

nyc will bust on the rain totals not even a half inch so far..

Winds gusting 45-50 mph or so right now, up to 1.66" of rain.

Most historical Super east-based Nino's had Winter +NAO. A lot of the seasonal models have more -NAO this Winter.. I said it before, give me -NAO with Super Nino STJ anytime, regardless of the Pacific. It does makes sense that an El Nino would have more -NAO than 48-20 composite because it goes with a tendency to warm 10mb. But we have +QBO this Winter which is a counter to that. And we haven't had a true -NAO Winter in 14 years. But logistically speaking late Summer has been cool locally.. just like the last 2 years. It will snow this year, low odds of a Dec-Mar wall-to-wall torch like 97-98 imo