All Activity

I agree with pumping the breaks on the warmth. However, as someone who pounded the table for a big January I am keeping an open mind to the idea it may not be as frigid as I expected. I do still think it will be a big month for northern areas. We will know more after the Christmas timeframe.

I am confident that Anthony has covered all the eventualities. As always …..

I’d hit it

It’s a tradition to bank on the torch then be happy as long as it’s not record setting heat.

Guess he isn’t buying the weeklies either.

This run is vastly different from all the previous gefs runs along the eastern seaboard.

I know we don’t always see eye to eye, but this is a good observation and explains why we are seeing a relaxation period instead of a wall to wall cold December. It was initially expected to spend the entire month in phase 8, but things changed. It’s important to update and adjust our expectations accordingly with new information.

The machines are hot as of late…at longer lead time it seems.

Why does it feel like the sub is trying to talk itself INTO Christmas being a torch? Lolol It's like we have so much scarring the prospect of Christmas not being 60 degrees is short circuiting the weenie brain!!

Steve D

18 Z Skynet is a white Christmas

AN isn’t a death sentence at the coldest time of the year…a furnace is. So that’s why I said I’m not buying any furnace.

Steve D thinks the same like others about moving forward.

Fffttttt?

Until you see a temp above 47 F, Dec 2025 remains tied with 1917 in first place for lowest max. Sadly that probably won't survive. Today's departure looks like it could push the running anomaly down to around -9 F which will perhaps be the low point for the month. As I was saying yesterday, lots of ups and downs ahead and I would expect this anomaly to be cut in half but -5 to -6 for the month is still possible if there's enough cold in the mix. If the mean after today drops to 32.4 F it will currently be tied with three t-28th coldest Decembers (for the entire month), a finish closer to 36 F seems likely, and the median of all 157 (if below 36.5) will be 36.5 F so there is some chance of the month being in the lower half of all Decembers, something that only happens two or three times a year in the modern and urban-warmed climate. A total of 26 Decembers had a mean at or below 32.0, the only recent ones being 1989 and 2000. By decades it is fairly easy to see the warming of the climate but about half of this is likely due to urban heat island increases. (27th was 1892 at 32.2 and the three at t-28th 32.4 are 1909, 1944 and 1995). Three more (1902, 1921, 1980) were tied at 32.5 F. DECEMBERS WITH MEANS 32.0 OR LOWER (listed by 30-year intervals slightly modified, 1869-1900 (8), 1901-30 (7), 1931-60 (6), 1961-90 (4), 1991-2024 (1). 1871 (29.2), 1872 (28.3), 1876 (24.9), 1880 (26.5), 1882 (30.6), 1883 (32.0), 1886 (29.6), 1890 (29.9) 1903 (31.5), 1904 (30.3), 1910 (30.0), 1914 (31.6), 1917 (25.0), 1919 (30.2), 1926 (28.9) 1935 (30.0), 1942 (31.1), 1945 (31.0), 1955 (29.7), 1958 (29.4), 1960 (30.9) 1962 (31.5), 1963 (31.2), 1976 (29.9), 1989 (25.9) 2000 (31.1)

Even funnier if they shut down this weather app until summer. Chaos!! CHAOS!!!!

?

Who is saying a furnace for January when the La Nina is going away ?

Shouldn’t you be putting together a crib?

I was eating 2 hamburgers.

Higher odds for AN January that’s for sure.

They are horrible and nothing suggests big warmth. Gefs is also limiting the warmth moving forward once again

What was said was furnace All of January…I’m not buying that on 12/16…but that’s just me.

Wait until today for another solution Gefs is pulling back on the warmth again. Continue to watch the Christmas timeframe for a storm in the northeast.