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114 I edited it. Typo on my part

He lives out towards Ashburn, so kind of in the same microclimate as me. He was a legit aviation met, so I picked his brain a bit when I saw him in the office, but I don't think he tracks these types of storms like we do lol (though does root for snow).

The AI Euro hasn't been terrible this winter, especially w/ surface features.

There should be snow in the air as early as tomorrow for areas north of I40 and Nashville eastward.

Currently 37F here with a light rain falling. Alot of winter left, I'm not going to jump ship yet.

A bit, but I do like the higher heights behind the storm. If the energy interactions were a bit cleaner it probably would turn out quite nice. Nothing that won't change run to run at this range.

ICON step back?

Good thing it’s the ICON.

Would definitely be a northern crew favoring event considering that. In the city I know I'm gonna be nervous about how much we would lose to the fight to changeover in the event a storm actually occurs.

.80"

You mean 120? Or does the 06/18 ICON go further on other providers? But yeah it was not too far off, just slow to gather all the pieces into the low we'd want to see.

My previous coworker (who I've kept in touch with) was an operational forecaster for years and said it could be a messy mix changing to snow. Likes the potential, but it depends on how much cold air gets wrapped in behind the low.

He had too much to drink

Scoots by both our subs to the North on its way to hit New England.

Maybe it pops a late coastal after 120 but idk. It is tilting but just not a clean enough deal. Oh well. On to the GFS (which I won't handle...)

WTF?

Pretty close by 114. Close enough that its on the same playing field still. This run an ass hair delayed in developing, just slower imo (eta) which doesnt help us down this way.

An orderly pattern progression remains underway. The warm anomalies peaked yesterday with temperatures running 12.6° above normal in Central Park. In the extended range, that progression should culminate in a return to colder weather with persistently below normal temperatures. Rain and showers will end early tomorrow. Rainfall remains on track for a storm-total 0.50"-1.00" rainfall across much of the region by the time the last showers depart early tomorrow. Through the middle of next week, highs will generally reach the 40s during the daytime and 30s for lows in New York City. Somewhat colder readings are likely outside the City and in areas where strong radiational cooling takes place. After the middle of next week, temperatures will "step down" with highs mainly in the middle and upper 30s in New York City and lows in the middle and upper 20s. Some light precipitation is possible on Friday. No significant Arctic blasts or significant snowfalls are likely through at least mid-January. Afterward, conditions might become more favorable for both cold and snowfall, especially if the PNA goes positive. PNA-related developments would have larger implications for snowfall. A persistently positive PNA would have above climatological risk of moderate or significant snowfalls. A mainly negative PNA would favor mainly small snowfalls. It will likely be another day or two before the guidance reaches the high-skill timeframe for teleconnection forecasts. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.7°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.5°C for the week centered around December 31. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.37°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.63°C. La Niña conditions will likely continue into at least late winter. The SOI was +21.91 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -2.082 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 58% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal January (1991-2020 normal). January will likely finish with a mean temperature near 33.3° (-0.4° below normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 0.7° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

Yeah by 108 you can see how the low is not diving in and cutting off in Tennessee, but instead Indiana/Ohio.

Haha. You all know I am not using chatGPT, because there are so many auto-correct spelling errors or careless errors. If those aren't present, I have been sucked into the singularity and there needs to be a well check.

If I recall correctly the AIEuro was better than just about every other model regarding snow last winter. The GEM was usually too extreme.

By 96 it might still have a chance. Heights behind it are very strong, might be able to make up for the pieces starting further apart. But I still think it won't quite get there.

The Euro deterministic didn't look terrible. Indeed, its ensemble is much different than other ensembles, BUT has trended towards the other cluster of ensembles (eastern intrusion of BN heights after the 20th) since yesterday. That tells me the EPS is probably still correcting. FWIW, the EPO ridge appears to have some staying power. I think the spacing and timing of the next three windows is incredibly important - 15th, 17th, and 20th. Amplified troughs will often over perform IMHO.

Not sure I like the ICON at 78hrs. Northern and southern streams appear further apart. PV nudged west and closer to the northern stream piece and may serve to squash things later down the line. We'll see.

That CPC had no heavy snowfall threats on its 3-7 day hazards outlook suggestes that the CPC also believes the latter system poses a greater winter weather risk.