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  2. KeenerWx
    What’s the point? A large population cannot even comprehend probabilities at their most simple application. Weather based probabilities already introduce a different dimension where product/forecast type and area coverage muddy how one would interpret the chance that x outcome happens specifically at their location. Ask a person what a 60% probability of an event happening within 25 miles of them means. Not a damn clue. This added level of complexity, then, cannot be for the benefit of the public. Suppose it’s a more hyper specific mode of grading forecasts internally?
  3. ineedsnow
  4. JoshM
    That dry slot is beyond brutal
  5. D-Money
    Good ole fashion NAMing! Area wide beat down. LP moves NE giving us a miller a type track.
  6. timnc910
    3k NAM 6z
  7. Siberian-Snowcover-Myth
    I believe RIC just got NAM’d….. could it be a trend??
  8. ineedsnow
    I thought this was going to be that 6z NAM run that brings everyone back in.. looked much better. Gets eastern areas with a bit and cape gets crushed
  9. JoshM
    Don't look at the 6z 3k NAM, it's < .10"
  10. Stovepipe
    My takeaway is NAM is leaning 2-4, 3k NAM is about 3, HRRR is 4-7, for Knox as a baseline for central valley, adjusting the gradient west to east. Edit: So basically inline with what MRX is forecasting. Almost at radar and HRRR watching phase.
  11. Tucker1027
    Poor Hamilton County…. All alone without a WWA .
  12. D-Money
    6z Nam
  13. ncforecaster89
    My previous post is gone, so I took the time to provide a new update: https://x.com/tbrite89/status/2017152042779689147
  14. lilj4425
  15. Mrwolf1972
    But top is nam 06 and bottom is nam 3k 06 see the difference
  16. Mrwolf1972
    It was early in model run thats why I edited my post
  17. Mrwolf1972
    So if the model says 3 or 4 we double that possibly right since its a dry snow?
  18. Stovepipe
    Not seeing that, what do you mean?
  19. Mrwolf1972
    Hrr 06
  20. Mrwolf1972
    Nam 06 only hitting knox north Edit looks better on 3k
  21. Santa Claus
  22. senc30
    So far, every model is saying 7"+ for me except the Euro. It is saying 3". Will be interesting to see exactly what happens. At least for my area, it's on an island by itself.
  23. Stovepipe
  24. timnc910
    06z HRRR and its still snowing in ENC
  25. ncjoaquin
    Below is for all mountain counties. GSP has upped it again. My current temp is 16.2. It has been a long time since I have been in the teens the morning of a snow storm. WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST SUNDAY... * WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations between 5 and 8 inches. Winds gusting as high as 50 mph. * WHERE...The mountains of North Carolina. * WHEN...From 4 PM this afternoon to 7 AM EST Sunday.
  26. roardog
    I guess it makes sense to a weather weenie but this is way too much for the general public that still don’t even know the difference between a watch and warning.
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