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I mean, yeah, this doesn't look so bad. Much better than it did a few days ago. But sometimes when temps bust 5-10F warmer with an oncoming ridge, this trends less favorable in the next bit of time.

There's like 10 members over Cape May.

I don't think it's broadbrushed like that. You keeping pointing out anomalies, I'm saying that the mean is X. I'm basing this on 73 years x 28 days, so 2,044 analogs: So if our average high is mid 40s, that's upper 40s to near 50 on the mean. the mean of 2,044 analogs.

Look at some of the -pna snowstorms in the 60s. It can happen. Especially if that 50/50 and Hudson high combo verify. But yea what could go wrong is more likely because snow is never the most likely outcome unless it’s that rare -NAO El Niño situation.

Only

That's what a -PNA SE ridge does though [map default is positive, so -pna is opposite] The amplified H5 could shear it out, or give you a 38F and rain day. low pressure system is really secondary to H5 pattern. My point is that in tracking, I don't see these downstream effects fully factored into medium range models.

Geps is nice

The high in Mooseknuckle Pines, ND was 109 today.

Uncle UKIE 00z with 24”-30”!!!!

Eps loops decent. Discard the op. Euro has been struggling this winter.

Ask him why he thinks it’s going to be warm

@Stormchaserchuck1 you can’t claim every non snow scenario as your win. Of course not snowing is the most likely outcome. There are a ton of permutations and most end in no snow. But you can’t say “it won’t snow because the storm will be too warm, or suppressed, it just miss us, or over amped and track NE. Well duh. Ya likely one or those lol. You mean it’s not likely all the multitude of things we need to go right to get snow will all happen. Nostradamus over here.

I’m just giving you the update for whenever you’re latest map comes out

I dunno man

@mitchnick. FWIW all The ensembles think the bigger risk is an over amped miss to our NW

-maxxing is a THING today. You know, Looksmaxxing, everything maxxing out. It's the Generation Z and Generation Alpha thing. Don't forget -MOG. For example, a mogger storm is a bad storm. The blizzard in California is a mogger storm. It's badass. I love Gen Z terms and I love Gen Z tracks even more! Like Adele, Ed Sheeran, Bruno Mars, Leona Lewis, Playboi Carti, Kodak Black, Ken Carson, Glorilla, I think Sticky is MOG, King Von is good, The Weeknd, man I really like The Weeknd so damn much!!!!!!!, Justin Timberlake, Lady Gaga, Evanescence, One Direction, Nelly Furtado's tracks are to DIE for!!!!, BabyCheifDoIt, Backend_Caughtem and dozens of others! I am definitely NOT your normal 62 year old Late Boomer! NO EFFIN WAY!

Man, Plow Guy really needs to plow that Woolly Lot! The snow is so DEEP! Its falling hard and it is blowing around like no one's bisnass! 17 degrees heavy snow, blowing snow and winds to 60 mph is wind chills -15 to -20 at times. BRRRRRRRRRRR. This is NO time to be out jebwalking. https://www.mammothmountain.com/on-the-mountain/mammoth-webcam/woolly-cam

Get a load of this guy

If it happens, it's probably a rainstorm Ceder Rapids, Iowa hit 70 today High was 65F in Chicago, breaking their old daily record of 58F Milwaukee, Wisconsin hit 63F, smashing their old record of 56F That ridge is going to move east tomorrow. Then there is nothing major changing about the pattern from now to then. When -PNA's go poleward, which we have for a few days with the threat, there is some cold air behind a cold front, but it's not that strong and the overall pattern of a jet stream north stays generally in control. Maybe it's some wet snow and upper 30s as the best case scenario. But a lot of times when temps are busting high with an oncoming ridge, the storm just ends up getting sheared out or weak.

Just really confusing how the models are handling the wave spacing over the Rockies and plains. A lot to sort out, the Euro is the only model with a complete destructive interference cancelation.

Early to mid February was cold and snow in 2026. It warms up then maybe another last chance.

Euro trend last 24 hours. If it did keep this up maybe another 2 more equivalent shifts and it would be a hit.

The most encouraging news at 0Z was the Canadian coming on board with the coastal solution after a solution that looked similar to the just released 0Z Euro OP - its possible that the EURO is just behind a cycle- maybe didn't receive all the updated data at 0Z - who knows - the ensembles might give us a clue

note the gfs ai shows some frozen precip friday night

Op euro did move in the right direction the last 12 hours but it’s taking baby steps and we’re gonna need a bigger jump here at some point.