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I appreciate your post, sincerely. Thank you for going into a bit more detail for me so I can get some sort of relief temporarily. I'll keep an eye on it for the next few days, I forgot how this forum works.. even during winter people posted weenie maps of massive snow events that were 3 weeks out.

WB 12Z EPS flashing red for Mid Atlantic coast....

Good time to bust this out. We have an eternity to go. A lot will change.

From Dr. Wielicki on the Phoenix Sky Harbor UHI heat "record" When do we stop using airports for climate records? The 118 °F reading lasted no more than five minutes. It occurred at 3:40 pm, 3:50 pm, 3:55 pm, and 4:00 pm, smack in the afternoon departure rush. Winds blew west at 7–9 kts, gusting past 17 kts, steering engine exhaust directly onto the sensor, which sits just 80 m east of Runway 25. The moment departures thinned, the temperature slipped back to 117 °F, matching the previous mark. "That single, exhaust-driven blip will now live forever in national climate datasets, nudging trendlines upward and gifting climate alarmists another talking point. This is not science, this is taxpayer-funded fraud that siphons wealth and freedom under a veneer of “records.”"

I wouldn’t have any concern to be honest about a trip anywhere. This wave just left the African coast and is at best 10 days away from the US. I’m not even thinking about the logistics of a chase yet and with good reason. First, the operational models (GFS/Euro) cannot be relied on for meaningful detailed accuracy at that range, especially for tropical. Even if they agree. They get posted here because they’re just fodder for our analysis and speculation at this range. Second, there are a multitude of factors that can and will impact the eventual outcome of this. There’s confidence in a ridge but will there be any troughs or weaknesses available to recurve this? A stronger ridge to push this in the Caribbean? Will it even develop or will it get choked by dry air or ripped apart by shear? No way of knowing at this range. I’d keep a casual eye on it, and maybe have a plan if this looks like a real possibility 6-7 days from now, but I wouldn’t change any plans. My .02

Might see some of those wildfires and floods that have been so prevalent across the globe back-to-back!

There were some early signs that the ridge in the East was becoming much stronger back in December 2015. It was the first 50° December around NYC Metro which was a 13.3° even against the warmer climate normals. It backed off and we had the great January into early February. The 2016-2017 winter continued the strong ridging but the storm track was still in colder mode since 09-10. February 2018 had what Ryan called that bananas record 500 mb height with the first 80° warmth in February around NYC Metro. 18-19 continued the ridge in the Northeast but the storm track shifted warmer through the Great Lakes. So we began the current 7 year stretch of record low snowfall. 20-21 briefly had more of a benchmark track especially near the start of February. But the record Binghampton 40” snowstorm in December featured the -AO linking up with the ridge east of New England forcing the storm track too far west for NYC to Boston to get the heaviest totals. Then the serious flash flood and landslide at the ski resorts on Christmas as the ridge flexed pushing the storm track north with 50s into the mountains. December 2021 had the record ridging from the Southern Plains to the East with the record +13 at DFW. Brief January return to Benchmark storm tracks followed by a milder February. January 2022 was the last time many areas around NYC Metro had a cold and snowy winter month. 2022-2023 and 2023-2024 continued the very strong ridge near the Northeast. The only month last winter that the ridge in the East was suppressed was January. But since we were in a La Niña pattern, the Northern Stream of the Pacific Jet remained too strong. So the much weaker STJ was easily suppressed and the Gulf Coast got the historic snows. My guess is if it was a strong enough El Niño instead, perhaps the STJ could have been juiced enough to force the storm track further north into the Mid-Atlantic and Southern New England. But yeah like in the post below, we continue to set new 500mb records throughout most seasons of the year.

12z GEFS today still has the cluster in the atlantic at about 240 hours. only a couple members head west for the gulf

Please happen

That makes me a feel a tad better, guess I'll know more in 5 days right before I leave for the trip.

Maybe NOLA.

Anything but the Gulf. Unless it's Tampa or Houston, I'm all set with a 930 cane making landfall over a bayou.

12Z Euro ensemble: many potential scenarios regarding the CONUS as would be expected this far out with many well offshore the E coast, some threatening the E coast, and 4 in/near the Gulf:

90 to 96, Mon-Wed using a straight up blend of the operational Euro and GFS

Something to keep an eye out. Certainly getting dry out there again like last summer. European ensemble mean says next 2 weeks could average 6-8F above normal locally.

That gives me some sort of relief I guess. Hoping whatever forms shoots up the East coast into the Atlantic. Is that more likely to happen instead of a direct hit? Seems like the rest of the storms between now and then are making that curve. (I don’t know much about the tropics so please forgive my ignorance).

yeah, entertaining fo' sho' but still, never seen a hurricane do an EC run thru a ridge and no steering field actually conducting it to do so in the first place. I feel that's beta drift in the model. If push came to shove I'd be forced to bet that a heat wave pattern from the OV-NE region sets the table for a Cane to do a Gulf o/mex entrance

either that or development will consistently shift sw, end up a GOM cruiser

You’re absolutely right, we could ask for a delay. I’m going to put aside the house topic for now, because that’s doable really at any time. I should’ve clarified. We haven’t picked a house yet, we are going down to choose from 3 options we like. Down to our final three, so that can be put on pause. I’m mainly concerned about my PTO because I’ve had this week circled for 6 months at this point. It’s more so a vacation as well as house hunting. The neighborhood we’re looking at his multiple houses for sale and it’s a safe distance from the coast and at a higher elevation. I know it’s a risk you run living in Florida regardless. I’m hopeful for the sake of my vacation & sanity that it does not happen and even more so hopeful for the residents of FL. Edit: not 6 weeks, 6 months.

it's like possible 100 F for 2 straight days followed by that yeeeeah

Likely standard Euro too. Don’t need to know the nuances—it’s impossible at this range—just that something is there.

Still under 80 at CHO. The filtered sun is really holding temps down

6-10" of rain on the euro and 50-75+mph gusts depending on where you are. That would be fun. Of course this will track 300 miles east of here, but always fun to see.

Ray and I began noticing the atmospheric teleconnector correlation stressing over the last 10 years actually. It's an interesting aspect. I haven't dug into the matter at the granularity of that, but have noticed it and what you're saying isn't far off from what Ray and I have discussed in the past. From what I'm anecdotally observing ... it's not so much that a -EPOs or +PNAs ...-NAOs don't correlate. It's more about the lack of resonance feed-backs locking in patterns long enough to give the correlations a time to manifest. The ephemeral atmosphere syndrome ... they abandon the storms ... cold and hot looks. That heat wave near the end of June was clipped for length by higher frequency for example.

Same, tell Lisa I said hi.