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Remember guys, the last storm was all about the south until it wasn't. Just an observation, but I see these things move west and north more than I do East.

Euro trend is moving Max West

Euro is a moose fart away from nailing eastern areas.

I think the GFS has a better handle on this. It was made for this type of storm.

That's from the 12z run. Though, doesn't look much different than that at 0z

We got it

Yes, it'll probably be a trend like @Terpeaststated.

Won't it take a few runs for the models to really get a handle on the new data?

West of 12, basically in line/slightly east of 18z

10:1 euro map

Euro turned negative too late for all

Euro turned negative too late for all

Anyone have new euro snow map?

Takeaways for the 0z runs are that that the globals are still shifting with the northern stream and fairly large disagreements remain. Accentuated by the fact the evolution is very sensitive. Convective feedback / parameterization issues starting to show with the rapid deepening. We wait.

probably, at first i thought this would be a 3 but now that it's done..its definitely gonna be a 4 for sure. historic storm

Euro I really do think Hampton Roads will get at least a little something

This coming day will tell a lot.

00z Euro back to its ENC coastal scrape look it had earlier today unfortunately

Really would want to see this close off over North Carolina and not GA or even SC.

Seems west and deeper.

To your credit Randy the precip shield is more north than 18z

Yeah, not a great run for us in SE VA either. Back to the ENC coastal scrape look

I do like the 500mb trends a lot and that’s not done backing honest either. One things first sure is we are not at a final solution right now

Overall, it's a solid run for most of us. Couple tweaks and it looks like the GFS. Goodnight folks. Hopefully 6Z doesnt pull the rug.

Models are miles better than they were 25 years ago. But that doesn't mean they're at the point where chaos like this doesn't happen. I'm sure in time the technology will continue to grow and improve...it simply isn't there yet. I've kinda learned to accept the limitations (somewhat at least, lol) and appreciate the progress.