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Back is broken, Time for fall.

She's a cutie. Congrats!!

Right on brah!

Enough with the BS! Stick to weather.

AI is taking over. It can’t resolve mesoscale stuff yet, but the euro AI stuff is becoming what most Mets incorporate now and the google deep mind model weathernext3 is showing that it may be the deterministic model of choice.

America isn't Great Again? WTF?? Dummies were promised.

Typhoon East of Japan with a semi-recurve could lead to a +PNA in early October resulting in a cooler period. I'll take it .

I guess these temps were like mid-July

Euro should just run twice a day. GFS should run none a day.

Most likely posted to direct visitors from X onto BamWX's app. At least there are no 90's on the horizon.

Dude it’s bad. I’ve seen the scores. There’s no investment. AI version blows too. Anyways it makes life easier since I don’t need to incorporate it. We only foreign models now.

Couldn't confirm your hypothesis as I don't follow the weather in places other than what our subforum covers.

It always blew. The Euro just got worse, so it looked that way.

Gfs was catching up to euro and now it’s on the bottom of a barrel. #winning

So, now that we have a new addition to our family, meet Ms. Jettie. She's never seen snow as she was found in in southern Texas when she was only 2 months old back in the beginning of the year. Brought up here in April. I'm hoping she'll get to see some snow this year for her first winter in the Northeast

For 90L, it may become a TS briefly from what some models show. It is quite rare to have something named this far E and moving NW and stay E of Cabo Verde. Hermine in 2022 (35 kt) did his. Before 2022 and strongest in the last 60 years was an unnamed TS in Sep 1988 (50 kt) (see attachments). There were several min TS in the 1960s and early 1970s in the area.

Maybe it is king in Europe now, that's all they care about

Euro used to be king, then, glue factory...

It was never good…so F that shit. Get rid of the thing and start over. Or just use the AI…it’s gonna beat all the other models before very long anyway.

Gfs moved sw at 18z so will keep eyes on it

Remember when Biden said it would improve ? He made it worse

Should become an AMWX meme.

Man with all that investment into the GFS you’d think it would be a great model…oh wait……

This HI activity jibes w/ the strength of El Nino. We know from other very strong El Ninos, HI is more at risk for TCs. Now, this for one, it is record activity for HI, but we are dealing w/ likely the strongest El Nino on record (since 1950). But the sample size for very strong El Nino is small, and I also would ask, what else is going on at the current time across the globe as to pattern oscillations? Yes, ENSO is the strongest, but does not operate in vacuum. So the state of other oscillations unquestionably play a role here, and sometimes they all line -p well/ideal w/ ENSO for a heck of season/high-end sensible wx in a region of the globe! And of course, you do not need a strong ENSO for wild sensible wx in any given region. The EPAC and CPAC are acting exactly as one would expect for TCs in a very strong El Nino overall. So is the Atlantic. The NW Pacific has not been super active yet for many intense TCs, but ACE is at 125% of avg S-T-D, and the TC season here often has monsters in Oct/Nov and even in Dec, so its "time" may be coming! The E/CPAC total ACE S-T-D is 189% of avg. If we take just what ACE has occured in the CPAC, I think it is at or near record levels w/ the caveat you only have a solid POR (period of record) since the sat era began (mid-1960s). Also, keep an eye on the SPAC season coming up. That is often very active for TCs in very strong El Nino, and you can get HUs well E of Tahiti, so much so you don't need to look at Himawari satellite imagery, GOES-W does just fine!