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  2. dendrite
    What a torch of a first half. Full fledged summer.
  3. dendrite
    fixed
  4. 40/70 Benchmark
    This what I meant this morning when I said we'd be walking a tight-rope...this season pull it off, though with a slight nude east of the warm pool. We are do for a good Nino...it's been over a decade.
  5. Baroclinic Zone
    Gorgeous evening Wind has subsided from earlier.
  6. Stormchaserchuck1
    Just make sure it doesn't spill over into the Indian Ocean and produce a +WPO
  7. JACKASS
    Why is “yes” a question mark?! Change it to a check mark please. @dendrite
  8. 40/70 Benchmark
    At some point, all of that warmth in region 4 is going to produce a Modoki season.
  9. Modfan2
    Looks like some decent showers from Ellington CT down to Norwich area, missing just to my west
  10. JACKASS
    Pouring now. With hay laying .07 in less than 3 minutes.
  11. Stormchaserchuck1
    Another interesting thing will be the Feb-March PNA. This 9-year period is the most extreme anomaly for any 9-year period on records over the last 120 years.
  12. donsutherland1
    The weekend will conclude with fair and warm conditions. Highs will mainly reach the lower 80s. Monday and Tuesday will be cooler days. Rain is likely on Monday into Monday night. The potential exists for a general 0.50"-1.50" rainfall. No excessive heat appears likely through at least June 25th. A warming trend could commence during or after the next weekend. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +2.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.3°C for the week centered around June 3. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +1.95°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.98°C. The ongoing El Niño will continue to strengthen through the summer. The SOI was -5.98 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.112 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 82% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal June (1991-2020 normal). June will likely finish with a mean temperature near 73.7 (1.7° above normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 2.3° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.
  13. FPizz
    Tons around here too.
  14. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, well....we did just see a 2013-2014 type of pattern last year, so who knows.
  15. Stormchaserchuck1
    I think we are the furthest thing from seeing west-based Nino patterns decadally, despite general warming in Nino 4. Another question is if the North Pacific High weakens this year. It's like a 5 std "PDO" vs 5 std east-based El Nino. Interesting!
  16. 40/70 Benchmark
    In the seasonal mean, sure....DJFM isn't averaging -NAO...not a huge leap of faith. But we just need one. month to average -NAO.
  17. SouthCoastMA
    Meh, wagons East with the precip. HRRR was more correct
  18. 40/70 Benchmark
    I find it interesting that last year had an SST profile that mimicked a Modoki set up, but the competing MC influence combined with the +WPO ended up making the pattern look east based. Some of the guidance this year is implying that while the SST may look more east-based, the warm pooling pulling more eastward with potentially a more favorable WPO may result in a more Modoki pattern. Tricky how CC modifies these traditional relationships.
  19. 40/70 Benchmark
    June 2023 forecast looked pretty different.
  20. BobbyHolikWillFindYou
    Yeesh. Almost every neighbor on our street is having some sort of party today. If these hold..
  21. FPizz
    Was this in any forecast?
  22. Today
  23. Porsche
    There are much better options now than when I got diagnosed, so hopefully they give you some good options, every case seems to be different and you'll learn to know what works and what doesn't. Take care and good luck!
  24. Prue11
    Same. Never seen it so bad this early. August sure, but not June
  25. Stormchaserchuck1
    I would love a -NAO with Super Nino STJ. Unfortunately, something like 14 Winters in a row have been +NAO (CPC). AO going negative has been easier to achieve. We will also likely have strong +QBO which strengthens the Stratosphere PV.
  26. frd
    Winter 26-27 with averaged - NAO . Also. Appears a weakened or displaced PV
  27. Maestrobjwa
    I think 95% of us MidAtl/Northeastern would take that all day--sold! Lol
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