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Like the boiling frog myth… just a slow steady rise but nothing earth-shattering. Just the most mundane way to get ridiculous departures.

https://x.com/bamwxcom/status/1800132969404743803?s=46&t=dhcbvkjmRcyBVQtDxJ3lRg

What's crazy is I thought for sure at midmonth, we'd be below normal. But looking at the current departure plus the forecast through the 15th, it now looks like we'll be slightly warmer than normal, even before the heat returns.

We're in the +2.5 to +3.5 color, close to the Over +3.5. That's significant for a 3-month period, but it's been more lack of cold than any big heat. Temps have been mostly meh.

The UKMET and JMA did best last year. The updated JMA (June run) for autumn ONI is very similar to the May run with a very slightly warmer prog that is still borderline weak Nino/cold neutral for ONI near -0.5 (implying RONI near borderline weak/moderate La Niña)(no significant bc needed since did well last year and longterm bias fairly small):

Worry about it if it ever happens. Until that time...

Phone app forecasts and their users FTL

Had to run an errand - it is a postcard morning. Love the contrast between the deep blue sky and the puffy cumulus deck. Stunning day.

Boom! You may recall, you and I lamented this probability about 9 days ago. I distinctly remember writing one of my patented tl;dr to make what is actually just a small point ... how '..It probably won't be as cold as that looks when it verifies' - or phrase to that affect. I think you replied, '...yeah I doubt it actually gets as cold as that looks and we'll find a way to somehow be above normal anyway' Not sure what the significance about the above paragraphs is oh yeah, I was going say, it seems this is more dependable now than folks are aware? Even the cold snaps in winter get shirked by 4 to 7 worth... and the nominal "between pattern temperature" seems to always just base around 1C above normal

This trough produced two +1 days at BDL. It’s wild to me that we needed that trough just to get near what temperatures should be at this time of year. I do hope we can see a legit like 5 day period averaging like -5 departures again sometime to see the reactions.

and it has nothing to do with climate change, either. ...amazing

We've got two and yeah, they certainly do their part haha. Come the dead of summer is when you can really start to see where their favorite spots are ha. One of ours is a digger as well. Trying to keep a nice yard with two dogs and two toddlers is a constant losing battle.

We’ve seen the monthly departures at ORH and BDL cool off to only +5 to +6… need to get them back up to the baseline of +8 or so. It’s just absolutely wild how warm it’s been for so long back to last November.

It's a trivial symbolism, really. To actually have a big heat signal land on the most intense solar week of the solar calendar year. I mentioned it for the sardonic value. There's nothing particularly qualifying beyond that. Although ... hm, as an afterthought, there's a reason why our big dawg numbers tend to happen post July 10. I bet if we graphed all the heat waves ( regardless of their notoriety or extremeness in the scalar sense) we'd find that the inter quartile density is probably between July 20 and August 10 or something like that. I may not be wrong - heh...admittedly anecdotal. But I've experienced too many busted heat wave forecasts and or unintended butt bang intrusions from the Maritimes due to poorly modeled circulation modes in Mays through early July's to believe that higher sun angles actually coincide with big heat around here ( our version of what big heat is...). By the time the mid summer arrives, those weird last minute ghosts of the previous cold season all but completely vanquish from the hemisphere, allowing the fragility of heat to succeed.

90's is hot any time of year, but definitely in June....that is more likely in July/August.

I've got a dog. She does a good job of keeping my lawn watered...lol

you average 90s around the solstice?

Actually though, with a fairly predictable bias correction, it can still be useful for trend purposes. Like if the next run were to be, say, +0.5 or -0.5, that would tell me the true trend of the progged ONI/RONI is probably warmer or cooler.

Thursday and especially Friday look hot.

Not good, when I saw TWN summer forecast showing a hot, above normal summer I grimaced as they have been wrong nine out of ten times with the summer seasonal one! Locally its been opposite if near normal wasn't shown. Atrocious conditions for days in SON, this shit is exactly what I fear especially in June. Overcast for days except some dawns and dusks the sun peeks out for a few moments - 13C for a high with windchills and rain showers. Thurs though was unexpectedly a good day. Feels like fall, heat has been on since early Sun. Feel the dryness despite the showers. The barfball of June 2015 made its way here!

Might as well stop running the model at this point. lol

A measly 0.02” last night brings us to 0.29” MTD. Looks extremely dry going forward. For areas that missed out on all the rain over the last month, get those sprinklers ready. GFS brings us <0.50” through the run and Euro and CMC are completely dry. Going into the last few days of June with under 1/2” mtd total is a possibility here

June 8th BoM updated run: SON ONI +0.07. The prior run (2 weeks ago) had -0.10. So, it rose slightly. But keep in mind it was the worst last year with the 6/3/23 run having +2.7 for SON and the 6/17/23 run having +3.0 for SON. Actual SON ONI was only +1.8. So, these runs were +0.9 and +1.2 too warm, respectively. Thus, if we cool their +0.07 SON prog by 0.9 to 1.2, we get -0.8 to -1.1 for a bc ONI prog. And then this implied bc RONI prog would be -1.2 to -1.5 or cooler. Thus, the bc implied 6/8/24 BoM RONI prog for SON is for a moderate to strong La Niña.

The euro’s depiction of this upcoming heatwave is brutal, though it’s still pretty far out. 3 days of highs in the mid to upper 90s and lows in the upper 70s.