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  2. Typhoon Tip
    So I'd be careful with the QBO in correlations. This actually happened first back in - I think ...- it was 2016, where the QBO abruptly and mysteriously halted ( in the relative sense... It even reversed for a time, mid cycle - something that had never been seen at that magnitude, if ever. It prompted me to check and sure enough, there's been publication as to the QBO as ( possibly ...) now also being affected by CC. Yes, even this is not unaffected. The study is “The disappearing quasi-biennial oscillation under sustained global warming,” by Fuhai Luo and colleagues, published in Nature Communications. Jan 29 earlier this year. It indeed describes the QBO as experiencing unusual disruptions in recent years. The idea here is that if it is doing this sort of "break down" ... that should enter the question as to how physically it is coupled with the total system - if so ... naturally and quite arithmetically the correlation goes with it. Just sayn'
  3. tamarack
    62/22 yesterday, only the 9th "forty" in 29 Octobers, and the coldest of the bunch. The others mostly had highs in the 70s. And the first clouds in 4 days this morning (but nothing falling from them). Stick season here, though the 2 nearby oaks and some understory beech have some brown hangers-on.
  4. wthrmn654
    Been a balmy 75-80 every day I've been down in Tennessee visiting the baby! Down in the 40s at night though.
  5. snowman19
    Still a disconnect between NOAA and the Australian BOM on the official weekly RONI number…..not huge (little over 0.3) but still a difference none the less….CPC has it at +2.5C and the BOM has it at +2.8C Here’s the traditional ONI anomaly, the absolute temperature remains over 30C, which is also record-breaking:
  6. Mrs.J
    Been cold enough for me to have soups in the rotation 2x's a week. And the amount of grilled ham/cheese and dill pickle toasties are delightful.
  7. aldie 22
    Sports can be funny sometimes but at this point as a Minnesota fan you have the Vikings at 6-0 and in first place, the Timberwolves at 3-0 and in first place the Wild are in first place and even the Gophers football team is beating ranked teams and 5-2 overall. Setting up to be a craptacular collapseapalooza postseason. Not to mention the snowless winter and 80 degree christmas coming.
  8. dendrite
    Same here…just hit 60° after a low of 30°.
  9. snowman19
    Right now I see no reason to doubt a warmer than normal December in the northeast/midatlantic based on the extremely strong correlation with El Niño/+QBO over the last 46+ years
  10. Typhoon Tip
    I don't disagree with you reasoning here and product issuance and so forth.. I would only add that the base-climate is very steep since 1997. That does sort of tilt matters from being straight up clearly attributable to ENSO. ...in terms of temperature departures down the SE ... Seasonality should also be considered - The SE could easily have fared warmer than 1997 in the absence of these warm ENSO autumns. I also have some reservation about attributes with ENSO prior to the gradient of the hemisphere drawing the El Nino into the fight. Having said that, if there's some primitive influence that's even subtle, yeah I mean there could be some synergy there that would not likely be very readily noticeable.
  11. psuhoffman
    The Vikings are doing their part to make sure their fans get the most gut wrenching utterly emotionally devastating eviscerating experience possible by being as good as they can now to inspire hope only to have it crushed later in some kind of epic dumpster fire way. They did this in 2017 when they went 13-3 and marched right down the field to take a 7-0 lead in the championship game vs a team with a backup QB only to completely stop playing at that point and get demolished the rest of the game. The most Vikings thing ever would be if they are winning the super bowl and just need to kneel the ball to run out the clock and they fumble the snap and the other team returns it for the winning TD with no time left on the clock!
  12. Stormchaserchuck1
    Yeah, the Nov correlation maps are stronger over NAO area than N. Pacific. You're right. But the pattern does start in October and over enough examples might not skip a month (although Oct is further west with the pattern - you're right).
  13. kdxken
    30° to 60° before noon. To the Moon Alice.
  14. LakePaste25
    The east based super Nino cool season composite is a deep GOA low and extended pacific jet December-March.
  15. Stormchaserchuck1
    I've already told you this, but the historical ENSO-N. Pacific trough correlation is -0.38 for Oct-Nov combined and -0.32 for Dec.
  16. psuhoffman
    My thoughts on winter are probably in line with most people. The nino is likely to be the dominant player. Add in the fact the pacific basin is warm EVERYWHERE and it's likely the dominant airmass for winter is going to be pac puke. Add in the extreme east based nature of the current super nino and my fear is the north pacific low is going to be both on steroids' and banked up right against the pacific NW coast, similar to 1998. What all that means imo is likely a warm wet winter overall. A lot of STJ systems coming at us from the gulf but a lack of arctic air. I was in central PA for 1998 and we actually got above normal snowfall but it almost didn't feel like it because so many of the storms were a 4-5" mixed bag when it was frustrating because the track of the storm should have been a 12" plus snowstorm. And even when we did get a decent snow it was usually gone within 1-2 days because it was so mild. I expect something similar this winter. One caveat, the last 2 nina's we had (both during this current extreme hostile PDO cycle) the enso failed to couple fully with the mid latitude longwave patter. I saw various excuses for this. However, I've also seen some speculation, by people way smarter than me, that some of the long term changes in the pacific, the warming of the north pacific, the expansion of the hadley cell, the compression of the north pacific jet, and the changing SST profile in the IOD region have all combined to mute enso's impact on the longwave pattern. If this is true, then all bets are off, but the default pattern over the last 10 years has been awful for snow, so that is not necessarily a good thing.
  17. Typhoon Tip
    You know notice I am not suggesting or saying at all, that it won't be advantageous to pattern orientation ( depending on what one wants - ) ? I'm not sure it makes a difference. That's why I said 'straw man' above. Not sure anyone's really arguing. I just don't like the untrue application/attribution thing, and I read/heard a bunch of it from 'social media celebrities' Either correlates to a favorable pattern. Think getting there via different wholesale means. I would "possssibly" argue that the bottom-->up variety is more conducive to NE Pacific heights ...but you can see how therein in drives almost no difference for the N/A continent. Contrasting, the -AO forcing from a SSW full cycle forcing has it's own variability. In 2006-2007, for example there was a very impressive SSW museum piece event, Yet, the incredible balmy historic warmth ongoing across the N/A mid latitudes actually persisted for 2 weeks longer - really - than it should have. The blocking and cold unloaded over in Russia/Siberia first, because the planetary wave # was destructively interfering the genesis of cold conveyor over on our side of the hemisphere. That changed of course...we end up with some winter in February that year... Point being, these correlators for bringing cold into mid latitudes are not single sourced, as well, can vary in and of themselves.
  18. LakePaste25
    Models keep it going far longer than “a few days.” Sure we can see if they verify first, but if it persists then it’s the December Nino pattern a full month early.
  19. nw baltimore wx
    Whatever it takes.
  20. LakePaste25
    Completely disagree.
  21. Stormchaserchuck1
    Not really. Strong few-day troughs are common in October.
  22. bluewave
    We can say that the pattern the last few weeks has been reversed from the same time period back in 1997. The strongest 500 mb trough and STJ is near the Southwest rather than the Southeast leading to the flooding and severe weather more focused in the Southwest. This is why the CONUS and in particular the Southeast has been so much warmer this October than it was back in 1997. The long range seasonal models from a month ago missed the more Southwest focused heavy rainfall. Same for the EPS weeklies beyond week 1 issued in early October. So we’ll just have to monitor going forward to see if some elements of this early season pattern continue. October 12th to 23rd 2026 500 mb pattern compared to 1997 October seasonal rainfall forecast issued in early September Verification
  23. Stormchaserchuck1
    The Nino is not impacting the N. Pacific that much. If we can get a sustained -AO period, I don't see why it can't get cool, even Dec.
  24. 40/70 Benchmark
    2023 and 2001....
  25. Layman
    Juggernaut...my brother and I made the mistake of trying that once somewhere around 1994-1996. One of the huge snowy winters we had back then. We snowboard. I remember getting to escape from it somewhere (Solitude maybe?) but it was torturous. We're big fans of Great Eastern and have been able to find a couple really nice and long connectors to make it a 12-15 minute ride at a good clip. The lift to slope time works out to be a very reasonable balance.
  26. LakePaste25
    Yeah, for us anyway. I could still see areas in the upper Midwest that are further removed from CAD effects and coastals threatening records. I did make that distinction awhile ago. Of course places such as International Falls have very cold climates to begin with, so 50+ degrees is far more anomalous there.
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