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I’ve long thought if you wanted a poster child for warming, BTV is it. Before the new normals came out, it felt like every month started at +2 as a baseline. The place just doesn’t cool off at night anymore for the most part.

No disagreement ... it's a low probability return. sure. The tussle I meant to expand upon is that as this fledgling season is coming in, there is increasing modeled injects off the NE Pac of these -2 SD polar anomalies. They're rocketing along the interface of a vast southern geopotential positive anomaly. Whenever they do, that S/W moves from MT to NS in about a coffee break. Really fast. These -2 waves may in fact expose a suppressed -PDO type exertion - a sort of "non-linear"/invisible lingering -PDOness. heh. somethin like that... So early on, the conflict may be brewing. I hear you about 2023 but I thought of 2023 as not real El Nino frankly. Yeah, it met the criteria of course in the traditional scope and scale. Of course. But even in a RONI reprocessing, RONI isn't perfect either... My thing is that the Earth system was still in the throws really of registering that giant spring burst in thermal recovery that took place. It superseded the ENSO onset - and was also ... ( I feel strongly ) wrongly attributed to being because of the onsetting El NINO... but it was the wrong epistemic direction. Because the former happened first! we can go around and around with that... but the point is, there were concurrent massive signals and it'll take a lot more necessary math and science in order to figure out what was really proxy on that ensuing winter. I think having a whole planet warm a half degree C (fun trivia: ~ equivalent to 250 times the yield of the world's nuclear arsenal detonated at once) needs to unequivocally explained before believing the ENSO that year was proxy over something with enough energy to holocaust the planet 250 times over. I dunno, but now years on that warm burst is hypothetically, fully 'absorbed' and accounted for in the ongoing machinery of the ID CGT ( Intradecadal circum-global teleconnector)...yet, we are left with a -PDO suggestion that should not be there given this scope of ENSO. These are compelling concepts for me anyway- Or not.. could all turn out to be nothin. But in the balance... teetering one way or the other comes down to unbalanced forcing.

Cue all the pro twitter Mets: "This is a very complicated setup and we won't know how it's gonna end up until it ends up".

Please, please do not let this fizzle and dry up; rain dance time

Another possibility I am toying with is having more of a supply of cold readily available to the CONUS relative to the east-based intense Nino composite AND having the STJ displaced N & W relative to said composite...which could be great for us, especially across the interior.

Yeah I'm an electrical engineer - primarily power systems and their controls.

It served it's purpose well. Reverse jinx.

I don’t remember if I posted BTV before, but I was going through some of the old climo links and found their old normals. Pretty drastic shift warmer there in the last 30 yrs. https://wrcc-archive.dri.edu/cgi-bin/cliNORMNCDC.pl?vt1081 https://wrcc-archive.dri.edu/cgi-bin/cliMAIN.pl?vt1081

I'm a bit torn on how the disconnect between the PDO and ENSO may go.....I see some indicate that it could force a colder outcome in the east, but that definitely didn't work out in 2023. I see how it could weaken the GOA low, thus reducing the proclivity for +EPO/strong Pac jet, but I also see that adding an element of destructive interference via elevated se heights....I tend to place greater emphasis on the latter, but perhaps we are especially prone to severe bouts of winter when said SE heights relative to expectation relax.

We had that one min in the upper 30s here…maybe 35-38 in the area depending on elevation. We’ve had a lot of Septembers with more 30s than that. Whatever it is, everything is lining up for a great season.

The CPC has 1972-3 peaking at +2.0 in its most up to date RONI table linked just below. Since RONI is the official way of classifying (and has been since Feb), that’s the current CPC official peak for 1972-3 rather than +1.8: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/ More on the transition of CPC from ONI to RONI for official classification of ENSO (this was released in Feb 2026): https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/announcement.php From the link above: “The Climate Prediction Center is making the shift to use the Relative Oceanic Niño Index (RONI) to better designate past events and predict future ENSO.” ——————— The table at the link below, which is to the most up to date ONI, has 1972-3 peaking at +1.8. But ONI hasn’t been the official way for CPC to classify since Feb. At the top it says this: This page will continue to be updated by the 5th of each month, but per NWS Public Information Statement 26-05, the Relative Oceanic Niño index (RONI) is used for official monitoring and prediction of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/oni/v6/ @Maestrobjwa

The October "mother of all WWB" has been on the Cfs2 for close to 2 months. Hard to believe with that model, but true nonetheless.

Jokes aside, I do suspect there's something in the -PDO mode of the atmosphere over the N arc of the Pac Basin that may parlay. Not certain on that... no It's just an 'intuitive arithmetic' of having the -PDO ... correlating -EPO, then vying over top a canonical ENSO driven STJ. The N. Pac is that "hangover" concept we were discussing back whenever that was? I don't keep apprised of the indexes weekly however. I just glance at the scalars. I see the models tussling already. I think that behavior matters - they are physically processing and so whatever their logistical biases are can mean one of two aspects: a, they are picking up on something in the atmospheric forcing spectrum; b, they are just wrong. The latter concern is ameliorated some by fact that all the models are doing this ( more what that is in a moment). They don't all have the identical physical equations built into their processing - though principally the same. So that means whatever is triggering persisting biases either way, it's likely something real in the background. Obviously this is all very experimental -

Not sure the track record here but we could see another big jump soon.

I was actually going to add a mid atl reference, too. haha The majority down there are great posters, but there are a select few that just make you want to make use of the idle snowblower and lie yourself down on the drive way.

On the + side, it likely means it's a stronger push of colder air. I'll take that as a "not so negative" considering temp will likely be our biggest problem come December.

Right...and that wasn't directed at you.....I know you are well aware of the perils of dismissing potential over shorter-term intervals out of deference to a longer-term mean.

Well yeah there's that too. Joe sets coffee down in the throws of some weird bi-polar pulse of gaiety firing off that morning, and the first thing he eats are "doomer" words of absolute dog turd ... That's gonna result in the bell of round one. haha No but I was just musing along very general take on matters.

All I ask is that people keep an open-mind....the need for preemptive defensive posturing is every bit as prominent on this board as any bias born of lust for the D-drip.

October 2 1953: A record high of 90 for the St. Cloud area is recorded in 1953 (and later tied in 1992). Minneapolis also sets a record that same day in 1953 with a high of 89 degrees. 1849: Persistent rain at Ft. Snelling accumulates to 4 inches in one and a half days. For Friday, October 2, 2026 1882 - An early season windstorm over Oregon and northern California blew down thousands of trees and caused great crop damage in the Sacramento Valley. (David Ludlum) 1959 - A tornado struck the town of Ivy, VA (located near Charlottesville). Eleven persons were killed, including ten from one family. (The Weather Channel) 1980 - The temperature at Blue Canyon, CA, soared to 88 degrees, an October record for that location. (The Weather Channel) 1981 - Severe thunderstorms raked Phoenix, AZ, with heavy rain, high winds, and hail up to an inch and a half in diameter, for the second day in a row. Thunderstorms on the 1st deluged Phoenix with .68 inch of rain in five minutes, equalling their all-time record. (The Weather Channel) 1987 - A fast moving cold front produced snow flurries from Minnesota to the Appalachian Mountains, and gale force winds behind the front ushered cold air into the Great Lakes Region. Valentine NE reported a record low of 25 degrees. Temperatures recovered rapidly in the Northern High Plains Region, reaching the lower 80s by afternoon. Jackson, WY, warmed from a morning low of 21 degrees to an afternoon high of 76 degrees. (The National Weather Summary) 1988 - Early morning thunderstorms in Georgia produced three inches of rain at Canton and Woodstock. (The National Weather Summary) 1989 - Flooding due to thunderstorm rains in the southeastern U.S. on the last day of September and the first day of October caused the Etowah River to rise seven feet above flood stage at Canton GA. Thunderstorms produced up to ten inches of rain in northeastern Georgia, with six inches reported at Athens GA in 24 hours. One man was killed, and another man was injured, when sucked by floodwaters into drainage lines. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) Observances: 2 Fri National Name Your Car Day 2 Fri National Body Language Day 2 Fri International Day of Non-Violence 2 Fri National Custodian Day 2 Fri Shemini Atzeret 2 Fri World Smile Day 2 Fri National Fried Scallops Day 2 Fri National Produce Misting Day 2 Fri National Report Long Term Acute Care Hospital Fraud Day 2 Fri World Farm Animals Day 2 Fri Guardian Angel Day

I noticed they go bananas after those couple cool, frosty mornings like a week ago? Forget when that was but it was like 3-4 days of sun, high diurnal swings and frosty valleys. Immediately after that the leaves went nuts up here.

Have to watch for some storms late afternoon

I don't think that is the issue...usually the blame arrow points towards the party speaking in absolutes, which is the "no winter" crowd...if you see anyone supremely confident in a great winter, please point them out to me. On the other hand, I see plenty hell-bent on a non-season, which is silly even just considering the intensity of ENSO overlaid onto CC....that position inherently demonstrates a lack of understanding as to the complexity of the implications of CC. As an example....CC has tended to attenuate the influence of ENSO, which we are still seeing to an extent, and has increased intra-season variability. Additionally, the poles are warming faster, which leaves us prone to shorter-term bouts of extreme blocking patters, which always bares watching given the magnitude of the STJ that is anticipated. Obviously hand we are dealt is heavily weighted toward warmth IN THE MEAN, but in no way precludes all hell breaking lose over shorter intervals of time for the reasons discussed.

Back in the day whatever the euro has within 72 hours was generally a lock