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It’s a beautiful, wonderful thing!!

The Pontiac cell definitely, before it gets dark. It’s kinda far from the radar right now.

oh yeah, next year is gonna suck. I said that a month ago.

Agreed

Yea, wasn't intended to be a lecture or anything....I just happen to quote your post because we were discussing. Thanks, I appreciate the positive feedback. It was not perfect and I do see room for improvement...will all be discussed in May.

I get that Ray that's why I thought it was a good forecast. Not an A+ here but damn good for my first Maine winter.

Very strong -QBO and high solar is a dead-ringer for +TNH....that crap about solar max always being warm is BS....solar max and conspire with certain stratospheric set ups to facilitate some of the most consistently cold regimes possible.

Coming my way

Best winter in at least a decade and possibly the last 15 years! Once 40 point blowout loss cannot diminish this great season. I liken today's 80 degree day to St John's season. 18-2 Big East record including them winning 16 out of their last seventeen games. Their only loss during the final two months of the regular season was not only of their most embarrassing losses in not only program history, but maby their worst Big East conference game that they have ever played!

C minus minus here

Snow beginning here. The more persistent band is setting up to my north as modeled. Guessing we’ll see about an inch.

Pontiac cell looks like it may be tightening back up a bit

I also wrote about the value of 2015, despite that it was a warm ENSO....highly anomalously cold several week stretch from +TNH regime January into Feb.

Yea, we haven't had much of that...coming later this week.

Perfect way to develop a composite...come up with a cast of characters, and explain that none of them are intended to be an exact prototype of the coming seasons, and then explain the role that each season will play and when it will appear. This what I love about winter forecasts...such an art form.

Even when we had rain it barely moved.

For you, it definitely was an A winter. For us in the urban jungle, not so much

Should I go to Pontiac cell or new one in between

Yeah, came back north quick. SBN jumped from 59/54 to 68/60 in an hour.

Wading River, LI. B+ seems right. Nothing wrong with that, just not quite top tier for snowfall or cold.

But it wasn't up against as hostile conditions...March was cold.

I wrote in this year's piece about how analogs are not mean to be interpreted as precise, absolute reenactments, but rather cast of actors that each have a cameo throughout the course of a film .....some of my big ones have showed up....2014 (+TNH), 2022 (+TNH), Latter January big dog, 2000, early season reversal, 2018, late season SSW followed by record warmth.

Kinda interesting how areas further east in IN/MI/OH might have a higher tornado chance than expected later because of where the front is

It was packed tight from the wind and weight. Up here i have mud, hoping for freezing nights soon.