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words and phrases like *lull* and *rounds of rain* should be banned from TV, TV Mets are unintellectual robots who use the same words over and over again.

Thanks Don ! What a fascinating read ! Also possibly proof of a cyclic multiverse !

Sadly something we have not experienced much in recent years, when was the last time it was frozen-- February 2015?

Some have speculated toward that end. One article: https://www.space.com/space-exploration/james-webb-space-telescope/is-our-universe-trapped-inside-a-black-hole-this-james-webb-space-telescope-discovery-might-blow-your-mind

I would spend half the time looking out of the windows of Lindell School which was right on the bay and under the flight landing path to JFK near the edge of Lawrence Marsh. We would also have the really big barges going by since that was such a busy waterway. I thought it was the coolest thing when the bay was nearly frozen across during all the cold winters growing up back in Long Beach.

Best guess: Probably not this century. This does not apply over geological time frames e.g., long after the human greenhouse gas-emitting supervolcano (hopefully by choice, not circumstances beyond human control e.g., exhaustion of fossil fuel reserves) has gone dormant and CO2 levels drop from the human-induced peak that still lies ahead.

Tacked on 1” during day. we wetter.

Thanks this was going to be my next question, Don! It's what caused me to conjecture that a universe could exist inside a spinning Kerr black hole (maybe ours as recent evidence indicates our universe is spinning) because there would be a calm *eye* at the center of such a spinning black hole that would be stable enough to house one. In this case gravity would be the analog to wind.

Back when I was in high school the teachers hated it because they had to interrupt their teaching as the windows rattled and no one could hear anything. I wonder if hearing damage can result from these kinds of loud noises? It's more annoying when it happens at night when you're trying to sleep although I notice there aren't many flights here between 11 pm and 5 am. It messes up my astrophotography sometimes but I have software that removes airplane streaks from my pictures automatically (they are treated as bad pixels.)

The same physics is involved (conservation of angular momentum) in a rotating system be they celestial bodies or tropical cyclones.

I actually got used to being right under the flight path for planes landing at JFK when I was back in Long Beach. But it was hard to ignore the Concorde which flew over my house every morning shortly after 9am coming into JFK. But kids think that kind of stuff if pretty cool anyway. I live near a much smaller airport now and the flight path doesn’t go directly over my house. But it’s really cool walking around the airport and seeing all the takeoffs and landings. There is a dirt lot where the locals park to watch all the flights landing and taking off. I still enjoy the low flyovers when walking on the sidewalk which crosses directly under the planes just off the end of the runway. I have noticed that the Boeing 737 is a much louder jet than the Airbus A 220. The airbus has more of a higher pitched whine and the Boeing is more of a deep roar. Had friends in the aviation business that would get to ride the jump seats on flights.

It's too bad because the trough over the upper OV and SE sort of argue to try and pull it closer, but again....massive gyre well N and NE of New England tries to come down and push it OTS.

it's fascinating how a Fujiwara interaction is so reminiscent of a gravitational interaction between two celestial bodies in proximity to each other.

Weekend nice sure, next week is not 80/60.

Parts of the region again reached 80° today before clouds moved in. Central Park (80°), Islip, and Newark (81°) all reached at least 80°. A low pressure system will move along a nearly stationary front tomorrow. As a result, rain will develop tonight and continue into Friday. A general 0.50"-1.50" rainfall is likely during this period in New York City and nearby suburbs. Some locations could see higher amounts in excess of 2.00". The potential for an area of 1.00"-3.00" rainfall exists for parts of Connecticut and Massachusetts. Above normal temperatures will continue through at least the coming weekend. In addition, one or two tropical cyclones could develop in the western Atlantic in coming days. The extent of ridging to the north and interaction with a potential second system could ultimately determine whether one of these systems poses an eventual threat to a portion of the Southeast or stays out to sea. The potential Fujiwhara interaction would be unusual for the Atlantic basin. Typically, if the stronger system is to the right or east of the weaker one (possibly Invest. 94 as per most of the guidance at present), the stronger system will tend to deflect the weaker one northward and eastward sooner than might otherwise be the case. If both systems are of similar strength, they can rotate counterclockwise around a midpoint roughly between the centers of the two storms as they move along the steering flow. Then, there's low but not zero probability of a subsequent shift in the steering currents that could turn the storm back toward the coast as depicted on the 9/24 12z ECMWF. For now, the potential development and evolution of pair of tropical cyclones bears watching. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was 0.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.4°C for the week centered around September 17. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.03°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.38°C. La Niña conditions will likely develop during mid- or late-autumn. The SOI was +2.62 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.889 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 75% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal September (1991-2020 normal). September will likely finish with a mean temperature near 69.8° (0.6° above normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 1.8° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

to get more specific Don, do you think the January 2016 snowfall amount of over 30 inches at JFK will be beaten during this century (or maybe ever)?

it seems to have backed off though

Gonna be an interesting flight to jamaica next week

Once one starts getting a large share of hours with above freezing temperatures during snowstorms, the amounts will be capped. So, at some point, even the blockbuster storms probably won't be as big as they have recently been or might be during the early to middle part of the transition. Snowfall extremes may have an asymmetric relationship to averages, at least initially, during the decline. In other words, the extremes e.g., top 1% of values, decline more slowly than the averages. One paper: https://pog.mit.edu/src/ogorman_snowfall_2014.pdf Prior to the decline, extreme values may increase relative to averages, even when averages start to decline. That might have been what happened from the mid-1990s through 2020 in New York City due to the benefit of warmer air holding more water vapor. Such developments are expected in the northern parts of the Northern Hemisphere. Figure 1: The paper from which the chart was taken explains: We find that, for the first half of the 21st century, the 99.9th percentile of daily snowfall, i.e., the largest daily snowfall in 1000 days, increases for large areas of the Northern Hemisphere by 10–20 percentage points until the decade of 2051–2060, while some areas, e.g. in Western Europe, show decreasing extreme percentiles (all percentages are relative to the historical baseline (1851–1920) values, Fig. 1, first column). Towards the end of the century (2091–2100), this trend diverges into sharply decreasing 99.9th percentiles for lower latitudes like Western Europe and parts of North America (up to points), and further increasing percentiles (more than points) in high latitudes. Substantiating these trends, the expected extreme magnitude, i.e., the average of daily snowfall events exceeding the historical 99.9th percentile (for details see the methods, Eq. (2)), increases by 5–10% points until the middle of the century (Fig. 1, second column). This indicates the strengthening of extreme snowfall events. The continued increase until the end of the century to 10–15% points of the baseline level shows that even with rarer extreme events as indicated by decreasing percentiles, the remaining extreme snowfall events are projected to intensify compared to the historical baseline... In contrast to this increase in extreme snowfall statistics, the mean daily snowfall diverges already in the near future. While snow-prone regions in high latitudes exhibit an increase of mean daily snowfall by 20% points until the middle of the century, we observe a sharp decrease for lower latitudes... These trends continue until the end of the century, yielding decreases of up to 80% points in large parts of Europe and parts of North America, while high-latitude regions like Siberia show a similar increase of around at least 50% points. Source: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-021-95979-4

We just got these in at the High Dive. Anchovy will be in next month Sent from my SM-G970U1 using Tapatalk

Scoot sending Ditty through the glass of reality.

Will be 40s 50s most spots lol

So Fish says

80/60??

80/60 in Oct is cool?