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The Jan 31 Potential: Stormtracker Failure or 'Tracker Trouncing
Alfoman replied to stormtracker's topic in Mid Atlantic
Trying to figure out why the Euro ended up with that surface translation even with more west ticks at 500: Looks like we just end up more positively tilted (you can see the difference below at hr 93) and there is slightly worse spacing with the kicker out west. This one is going to drive us crazy with small shifts like that making the difference in the end. -
The Jan 31 Potential: Stormtracker Failure or 'Tracker Trouncing
Ji replied to stormtracker's topic in Mid Atlantic
What? -
The Jan 31 Potential: Stormtracker Failure or 'Tracker Trouncing
SnowBeau replied to stormtracker's topic in Mid Atlantic
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The Jan 31 Potential: Stormtracker Failure or 'Tracker Trouncing
ravensrule replied to stormtracker's topic in Mid Atlantic
Please ignore the prepubescents. -
The Jan 31 Potential: Stormtracker Failure or 'Tracker Trouncing
DDweatherman replied to stormtracker's topic in Mid Atlantic
I didn’t look at any h5 to say one way or another, just if something woulda got picked up. Seems like the biggest factor as I said in another comment is basing this off the tilt of the closed UL. Even if this originates a bit west of the prior runs, the real improvement needs to come in the orientation of things with that. -
The Jan 31 Potential: Stormtracker Failure or 'Tracker Trouncing
wxmeddler replied to stormtracker's topic in Mid Atlantic
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The Jan 31 Potential: Stormtracker Failure or 'Tracker Trouncing
Nomz replied to stormtracker's topic in Mid Atlantic
GFS: Good, waiting for north trend NAM: Good Canadian: looked good before weird surface modeling Euro OP: West Euro AIFS: West Icon: West UKL West -
The Jan 31 Potential: Stormtracker Failure or 'Tracker Trouncing
ravensrule replied to stormtracker's topic in Mid Atlantic
We need the 12 year olds out of here is what it means. -
The “I bring the mojo” Jan 30-Feb 1 potential winter storm
wncsnow replied to lilj4425's topic in Southeastern States
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The Jan 31 Potential: Stormtracker Failure or 'Tracker Trouncing
bncho replied to stormtracker's topic in Mid Atlantic
Sorry Randy. Looking at h5 it did looked better—you were right in that regard. Hope you can forgive me for that unmerited criticism. -
The Jan 31 Potential: Stormtracker Failure or 'Tracker Trouncing
Maestrobjwa replied to stormtracker's topic in Mid Atlantic
Good game -
The Jan 31 Potential: Stormtracker Failure or 'Tracker Trouncing
DDweatherman replied to stormtracker's topic in Mid Atlantic
The tilt is arguably more important than location, especially with the origin of this. -
The Jan 31 Potential: Stormtracker Failure or 'Tracker Trouncing
stormtracker replied to stormtracker's topic in Mid Atlantic
Probably. I compare h5 first to try to see where things are going. After that, the sfc didn't correspond in later panels. Can't help that, but yeah maybe a met would have seen it coming -
The Jan 31 Potential: Stormtracker Failure or 'Tracker Trouncing
nj2va replied to stormtracker's topic in Mid Atlantic
What does this mean? -
Possible coastal storm centered on Feb 1 2026.
weathafella replied to Typhoon Tip's topic in New England
Nor is op euro. Gfs at 0Z seems alone. But it’s pretty early still so we stay the course. I accidentally booked my car at RSW for Monday evening vs our scheduled arrival Sunday. I told my wife it’s easier to leave it be until we’re sure we’re getting out Sunday. -
The Jan 31 Potential: Stormtracker Failure or 'Tracker Trouncing
Ji replied to stormtracker's topic in Mid Atlantic
The ull is in the same place by it was neutral on 18z and so positive on 00z -
The Jan 31 Potential: Stormtracker Failure or 'Tracker Trouncing
FatherNature replied to stormtracker's topic in Mid Atlantic
Remember guys, Europe has never won a Super Bowl -
The Jan 31 Potential: Stormtracker Failure or 'Tracker Trouncing
stormtracker replied to stormtracker's topic in Mid Atlantic
12z with fresh data -
The Jan 31 Potential: Stormtracker Failure or 'Tracker Trouncing
DDweatherman replied to stormtracker's topic in Mid Atlantic
Not a criticism, genuine question. Would a met reading and doing pbp have been able to see things there and say “well h5 is displaced west of 18z kinda nicely now however XXX happens negating those positive developments” -
The AI was right on the better runs from tonight with the 500mb vort it looked like but qpf was down slightly for us. Euro is winding up well west of prior runs.
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Possible coastal storm centered on Feb 1 2026.
Ginx snewx replied to Typhoon Tip's topic in New England
Carbon copy of 18z -
The Jan 31 Potential: Stormtracker Failure or 'Tracker Trouncing
Chris78 replied to stormtracker's topic in Mid Atlantic
When does the GFS fold? 6z or 12z?
