All Activity

I love bright sunny days with deep blue skies so I'm happy. The contrast between today and later in the week when we again have deep blue skies but much cooler weather will be very interesting.

Don would people have been able to walk from Long Island to Connecticut and vice versa?

(Hope the mods don’t mind me sharing this) I’m sharing - and looking for feedback on - a project I’ve been working on this summer. Its origins were an idea I’ve had for nearly 20 years - to create a platform where accurate information is elevated and showcased and helps improve the medium-range forecast information available to the general public. My idea was always to start with hurricanes, since forecasts are “easier” to measure for accuracy. https://hurricanehive.com/ Tldr; For anyone who wants to create medium-range forecasts: I built tools to create hurricane forecasts and then get accuracy assessments (alongside NHC and some computer models (hopefully more soon). For the general pubic (think of your friends and family): I also have put work into synthesizing the information into clear, digestible, hype-free forecast products. I think there is a serious information gap between the information available that can help people understand the medium-range risks and what they consume - increasingly through social media or weather apps that are very good at hourly / short-term forecasts. (yes, I am using AI - more on that below). I had time this summer and set out building it, which has been fun. If I get traction, I am want to extend this to a year-round product/service. Of course, I picked the tropical season of 2025, which has been devoid of long-track landfall threats… But I would love feedback - if you want to sign up and try the forecasting tools, you have options to keep them to yourselves or make them available for the public. I have the jobs to calculate accuracy in place, and will build out the front-end in the coming week or so. Initially I thought about leaning into a “leader board” approach, but don’t want that to scare people away from participating. I’d l love your ideas. And hopefully there will be more to track... For all you weather geeks, whether you want to forecast or not.. the entire storm archive back to 1851 is here, along with tools to search storms and create collections (if you register). I can also generate analog storms. How the forecasting works: when you register you can indicate you want to forecast (and whether you want to share them or not) Under /forecast - you can create a new forecast for each storm within 4 hours of the latest storm position update (so after 11 AM ET you have until 3). You can enter forecast points for any of the standard plots up to 120 hours and add an optional landfall point. Thanks for looking/listening and feedback. More (from my FAQ):

Try harder Vikings

You must realize that extreme statements ruled by passion are often, more than not, also worthless. As always …..

I remember what must have been a Miller B bust in 1985. Went to bed under a Winter Storm Warning and woke up to filtered sun through cirrus clouds.

They're definitely doing more ... just by virtue of acknowledging the problems. They're also - from appearance alone ...granted - solving the problems they can solve more easily, first. I perfectly valid longer term stratagem. But is a strategy nonetheless. Contrasting, America has turned their faces toward the wrong side of history ( science, much less objective reality - ) in their - apparent - seeking of comfort. It's really a populist movement based on a combination of fear and anger: two of Satan's favorite weapons against humanity ... ha ('not religious; that's just dark humor) It's not even climate that causes them pain. It was the other aspects of pure humanism that sent this spiraling decay of responsibility. It's a quirk in history that it conflicts with the climate doom awareness. If the Libs didn't yank WOKEism into something that's clearly biologically unsound ... and start Karenizing hard-ons and ruining lives, and even pushing that agenda into formal legislation .. they would not have marginalized huge voting block populations to the point of anger. That's why we're in a veritable teetering with a fascist overthrow - which in itself is fantastically being ignored. This whole morass blocks any agenda having to do with climate consideration in America, because, of the two, Climate does not appeal as the real danger to every days. They other stuff does. I just want to say something here in capital, embolden letters to signify that yes ... I am yelling at at these consummate dumb mother fuckers walking the earth among those that are trying to spare in the wrath of man's idiocy. Temperature rises associate with climate change does not cause species extinction, TEMPERATURE RISE HAPPENING !FASTER! THAN SPECIES CAN ADAPT is causing the problem Lol... just so we're clear. There really seems to be a huge variance in intellectual capacity. I used to think this was a moral problem. Like the "wont' happen in my life time" wasn't bad enough, right? Yeah there's that sentiment going on out there but ... mmm, that's not it. There's a problem with capacitance in multi-disciplinary, multi-dimensional comprehension. Lot of long words to just simply say, simpletons, which unfortunately are greater than 50% of the population density, just can't understand much of this. It would be okay if that was the only problem ... sort of. I mean at least morally. But the problem is, they are dumb fucks that instead of learning, choose the easy road of toeing the line with likes of which have 0 qualifications for rendering advice and truth on the matter; unwittingly and without conditional objective analysis, aligning with with both moronic and immoral leaders. This is not very likely to end well.

The Long Island Sound froze during winter 2014-15. That hasn’t happened since then.

that was a very exciting winter in 2014-15 and in general a very exciting period between 2009 and 2018.

Thanks Don, as I remember them I believe December 2015 was the most strongly positive deviation of my lifetime in the winter and December 1989 was the most strongly negative. So going back to the 1976-77 winter at least?

Indeed

December 2015 would have qualified as a top ten warmest November, it was the most insane departures I've ever seen. Ironically right after one of the coldest February and March we had in a long long time.

December 2015: 3.71 sigma above the 1991-2020 mean February 2015: 2.71 sigma below the 1991-2020 mean December 1989: 2.78 sigma below the 1971-2000 mean (3.30 sigma below the 1991–2020 mean). For the full climate record: +3.41 sigma, -2.07 sigma, and -2.41 sigma respectively.

Probably lock that in all winter too.

Sounds about right

not after today ...? I suspect they can move the means dial a lousy .1 when they're like 82/63 and something like +15 hahaha hyperbole. ( to lazy to look at anything specific at the moment)

Going to be around 2.7” of rain for September. About 1” BN?

Nicest August ever, September ever, let's make it a three-peat for October.

in a so-called *communist* dictatorship like China, how is big coal putting up a fight? sounds very crapitalistic to me!

cleaner air could also mean warmer air because of less solar blockage with particulates.

Politically though they are unstable, with an extreme right wing element there as well as for some reason backing away from nuclear and returning to coal.

wow, that's the best warm signal I've seen all year now that I dig in a bit. man. All agencies in on it too. You have weather bell with a -EPO/-D(PNA), in spatial temporal sync with a +NAO. Meanwhile ... over at the rotated principle component analysis version at CPA ( not to charm you with dialect or nothin' ) the -D(PNA) is in complete ballistic downward trajectory. It drops like 3 sigmas in 5 days in the first week of the month. If this were July we'd really really roast. Not sure about the first week of October with slant sun, though.

Records: High: EWR: 87 (2014) NYC: 88 (1881) LGA: 84 (2014) JFK: 82 (1948) Lows: EWR: 38 (1947) NYC: 41 (1947) LGA: 42 (1947) JFK: 44 (1989) 1989 - Thunderstorms over northeastern Florida drenched Jacksonville with 4.28 inches of rain between midnight and 6 AM EDT. Unseasonably cool weather prevailed in the northeastern U.S. Five cities reported record low temperatures for the date, including Binghamton NY with a reading of 30 degrees. Morning lows were in the 20s in northern New England. Unseasonably mild weather prevailed in the northwestern U.S., with afternoon highs in the upper 70s and 80s. In Oregon, Astoria reported a record high of 83 degrees. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) Interesting variance between this winters Lots of snow in 1947 and 2014 after record heat on this date Record cold in 1989 which continued with some volatility right through December then record warmth January through March lol.

.11" overnight, "storm" total of .42".