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This is going to be a very annoying week I fear. Lots of rain/storm chances but hard to pinpoint timing

Here's a not-so-novel aspect about ice vs water: when water freezes its volume necessarily expands by 12% to make room for the H20 molecules arranging geometrically into their crystalline position/lattice. That lattice then requires more space in order to achieve this hexagonal configuration among the handshaking molecules. etc... What may or may not be more novel is the application of this basic physics principle to the Nepal event triggering mechanics. If the combination of CC and summer sun have been periodically thawing and refreezing the glacial mass over and over again (decadal), the interstitial integrity of glacial body may have cracked. Fracturing over recent years. Basically we're just describing the glacial destabilization near it's front edge and the pooling of near freezing water and seepage that goes on with the retreating. It's a complex system, but at the end of the day, epistemic awareness ... We can either spend 20 years formulating a high degree confidence polynomial mathematical expression that describes a system to within 99% certainty, proving what we already know, or, you just have to accept that expanding and contracting the ice through these processes will weaken it. This both increases calving events, but then would increase the probability for this to have occurred. Increasing glacial melt --> filling glacial lakes and kettle geological features --> upstream calving then careens forth and there we go

That is some environment that will be evolving just west of CT tomorrow afternoon and probably into western CT late afternoon/early evening. Guidance isn't showing a ton developing, forcing isn't particularly strong and looking at several soundings, the LFC is quite a bit higher than the LCL. With this said, that promotes an environment for discrete storms and any storms that fire in the afternoon could be particularly nasty. Probably not strong enough llvl shear for a strong tornado but not out of the question should a supercell become mature enough, especially when considering potential for boundary interactions

Yes. Your area, parts of the Mid-Atlantic, etc., will see excessive heat. Try to stay cool.

Crazy variance across the state in rainfall totals this month

Thanks. Please elaborate. I’m not sure I’m following what you’re asking.

Amazing what 40 kts of shear will do to ya. “Dolly” has passed through the wall of doom and entered a more favorable environment but not much left. Models have backed off again. If something were to happen I’d expect some steady flare up north of the islands today but odds of redevelopment are low

Keep this talk up and we’re going to change Clinton, MA to LockHerUp, MA.

Through it's first 9 days the ChescoWx forecast has been closer than the NWS point and click for EN.

Is it accelerating because of GW, or is it that since it is smaller ice absorbs heat more quickly then when it was larger? I always wondered that.

Hard to tell. The core of the coldest seemed to be in the rad spots of C NH. The SLK COOP was 34°…MSS 35° Not sure what the cloud cover or wind was in upstate NY, but the N NH COOP sites were mostly 32-35°

Through it's first 9 days the ChescoWx forecast has been closer than the NWS point and click for EN.

Through it's first 9 days the ChescoWx forecast has been closer than the NWS point and click for EN.

That's relief compared to what I've been paying. Gas was $4.89 at peak in SLK this summer and I paid $4.59 there yesterday. Brutal, brutal stuff.

Thanks, Charlie, for posing that. None of what you posted from that article surprises me. I’m not at all expecting to take JB’s side, especially because he’s a proud denier of AGW being a significant factor in GW. But what do you know about his statement that Nepal hasn’t warmed in 400 years? Did he just make this up? From where would he have gotten accurate data so far back? Also, does that map of his that I reposted supposedly showing a somewhat cooler than normal summer along the Nepal-Tibet border have any significance even if accurate? I noticed it has no legend and no reference like the base period and the period these blue colors are representing. He’s saying this is the “wrong summer” to claim a disaster was based on GW. But even if it truly was cooler than normal this summer there, would that even matter being that melting supposedly would have already been put in motion due to supposedly prior warmer than normal periods?

One gas station up the road went from $3.66 to $3.99 in a few days...if even a few days

I dumped the latest data and asked AI to summarize: (will do August numbers when they come in, once that happens ill repost) The latest ENSO data continue to strongly support a major El Niño analog package for 2026–27. July 2026 monthly values show Niño 3.4 at +1.73°C, Niño 3 at +2.30°C, Niño 1+2 at +2.91°C, and Niño 4 at +1.42°C. This means the event is not just east-Pacific warm; it also has strong basinwide support. The atmospheric side is also very strongly coupled, with SOI at -4.00 and MEI.v2 at +2.41 for July 2026. ONI is already +1.40 through June, RONI is +1.34 for July, and the subsurface/thermocline indicators are supportive, including strong upper-ocean heat content and a much deeper-than-normal thermocline in the east. Compared with past El Niño events, the best current analogs remain the major-event years: 1997–98, 2015–16, and 1982–83. The 1997 analog still looks best for the explosive east-Pacific component, especially with the very warm Niño 1+2 and Niño 3 regions. The 2015 analog is also very strong because 2026 now has a more basinwide look, with Niño 4 also quite warm. 1982 remains a strong analog for the eventual major-event trajectory and atmospheric response, even though it was not as warm in July as 2026 is now. Secondary analogs include 1972–73, 2023–24, 1965–66, and 1957–58. By category, the top SST-structure analogs are 1997, 2015, 2023, 1972, and 1982. For Niño 3.4 intensity and projected peak, the best analogs are 2015, 1997, 1982, 1972, and 1965. For the far-eastern Pacific / Niño 1+2 component, the best analogs are 1997, 2023, 2015, 1972, and 1965. For Niño 4 / basinwide support, the best matches are 2015, 2002, 2023, 1997, and 2009. For atmospheric coupling using SOI and MEI, the best analogs are 1997, 2015, 1982, 1972, and 1965. Overall, the current blend favors 1997–98 first, 2015–16 second, 1982–83 third, then 1972–73, 2023–24, 1965–66, 1957–58, 1991–92, 2002–03, and 2009–10. Parameter Latest 2026 Reading Period What It Shows Niño 3.4 +1.73°C July 2026 Strong central/east-central El Niño Niño 3 +2.30°C July 2026 Very strong east-central warming Niño 1+2 +2.91°C July 2026 Very strong far-eastern Pacific warming Niño 4 +1.42°C July 2026 Basinwide support, not just coastal/eastern ONI +1.40°C June 2026 El Niño established on 3-month basis RONI +1.34°C July 2026 Strong relative Niño 3.4 signal MEI.v2 +2.41 July 2026 Very strong coupled ocean-atmosphere signal SOI -4.00 July 2026 Very strong atmospheric El Niño response OLR -1.20 July 2026 Enhanced central/eastern Pacific convection Heat Content +2.48 July 2026 Strong subsurface warm support 200mb Zonal Winds -6.79 July 2026 Upper-level easterly anomaly support 20°C Thermocline Depth, 95W +56.28 m July 2026 Much deeper-than-normal eastern thermocline Overall Rank Analog Match Level Main Reason 1 1997–98 Best overall Best blend of rapid onset, east-Pacific warmth, strong MEI, and major-event trajectory 2 2015–16 Very high Best basinwide/intensity match, especially with strong Niño 4 support 3 1982–83 High Excellent major-event trajectory and atmospheric response, though weaker July SSTs 4 1972–73 High Classic eastern-Pacific strong El Niño analog 5 2023–24 Moderate-high Excellent recent east-Pacific analog, but weaker coupling at the same stage 6 1965–66 Moderate-high Good east-Pacific and SOI secondary analog 7 1957–58 Moderate-high Strong historical El Niño, useful secondary analog 8 1991–92 Moderate Decent coupled warm-event analog, but weaker structure 9 2002–03 Moderate More central/basinwide, weaker eastern-Pacific match 10 2009–10 Lower-moderate El Niño winter analog, but weaker summer development/coupling Bottom line: the latest readings strengthen the case that 2026–27 belongs in the major El Niño analog group. The strongest overall comparisons are 1997–98, 2015–16, and 1982–83, with 1972–73 as the best classic eastern-Pacific secondary analog. What makes 2026 stand out is the combination of very warm Niño 1+2, strong Niño 3.4, strong Niño 4, a very negative SOI, and MEI.v2 above +2. That is a much stronger coupled signal than 2023 had at the same point.

Yep. We see this plenty of times--satellite looks good but when recon gets in there it's still a bit of a mess. This one is on its way to being a TC, but probably not quite there/borderline. Interested in what they find on the eastern flank & in that possible center.

It's hard to parse out what did what and how much, in the run up to this specific states and scenarios. In considering France's issues with agriculture, this was likely set into motion over decades when looking at this as an epistemic/a-priori approach. I'm not personally with any confidence that this specific 'onsetting' warm ENSO has much to do with it frankly. Quick primer ( I get it that you know this.. just for the general reader). As we know El Ninos typically begin to formulate during summers, then maturing during autumn and early winters. This one appears to fit that climatology so far... More importantly, during these prefaces of onset the wholesale seasonal gradients are still flaccid. That's a crucial consideration in the presumptions. Because... the gradient determines where the jet structures will ultimately bias; that becomes the El Nino characterization if/when the El Nino is sufficiently coupled. As an aside, the warming total atmosphere associated to CC is limiting the coupling. Why? because the gradient of winter is being lifted to higher latitudes - that is distancing that latitude (geometrically), so the coupling is getting amorphously defined. Enters RONI... Relative ONI is pure statistical approach to the resulting slipping/lowering observed effectivity. The 2nd aspect that makes the causal parsing a challenge is that the heat and drought has been an improving frequency and specter for decades, doing so regardless of a ENSO variances in either direction over that time. Having said all that, here's where there's an angle: I think there is a gray area in the completer understanding as to what actually triggers the modal oscillation of ENSO. In that area of speculation, conjecture and hypothesis, it may yet be shown that the circulation modes outside the tropics are somehow transitively being causing the tropical wind patterns to occasionally reverse. Like the noise over time organizes into a sinusoidal harmonic feedback, at a whole-Earth atmosphere scale. If something like that were taking place then it would be entirely possible/reasonable that machinery 'switching gears' did something to specifically enhance France's agricultural problems now. But, since the specter of heat and drought goes back years, parsing out what's to blame ...mm intuitively argues it's just a CC related matter in general. At some point, if the CC continues to change .. it may herald in a new behavior there and abroad. It's areas of the curve favor a phenomenon typology.

Looks pretty broad/open on south side. That mid level feature looks more impressive than what’s under the hood. This is why NHC waits for solid data before designating systems even close to land. Could see PTC at 11 tho

We've gotten names for less I kid, I kid...

It's usually difficult for us not to get at least one day in when we have these type of setups. Tomorrow is going to be interesting to see play out, its been a heavy mix on how tomorrow evolves. A good part of CT may end up right along the instability gradient

Just don’t know what to do with all this winning

A light breeze based on that pass