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That was a Tor

Using the HREF mean as a benchmark, if shows 12hr (12z Sat-00z Sun) neutral or slightly rising heights from the Red River, southward. Subtle negative height tendencies are noted from NW Oklahoma into western Kansas, but more substantial height falls are not progged to arrive until overnight The CAPE/shear overlap is certainly conditionally favorable for significant severe. Convective temperatures on the HRRR are close to being reached by 00z Sunday. The 3km NAM shows isolated CI with multiple areas of attempted CI. SREF probabilities are a bit tame too. Given a robust jetmax ejecting into the Plains by 00z, it’s hard to imagine there isn’t at least isolated CI. Even if more widespread convection is delayed until evening, the environment only gets more volatile before there is some notable increase in CINH, after midnight. SPC’s new Day 2 outlook includes a small hatched sig tor area over NW Oklahoma. Given model trends, you could see the most significant tornado threat possibly get nudged back into SW Kansas, with timing centered around early evening, but we’ll see. We also need to get through Friday first…

Howard! Great to hear from you!

Absolutely insane tornado today in SW OK, pics to come.

Apparently not. Lucky you I guess. Enjoy the rain!

Pasadena/Maryland/Mid-Atlantic low-rez radar specific version for use with my FireTV... https://kaosfactor.github.io/

Yeah can we not do a repeat of that? It's going to take at least another week to get fully cleaned up here from Tuesday, and with the Crawfish still quite high we are prone rn to any major rainfall. That's honestly my biggest concern atm out of this stretch, as essentially the corridor from Lodi to Doylestown to Fox Lake to Waupun can't take a whole lot more rain after Monday/Tuesday. As well as points west along the Baraboo, although they are still coming off the drought there so its not as bad. If we get unlucky with either total rain amounts or rainfall rates we could be talking some potential issues along the drainages along that corridor come Monday. We have the potential for the biggest flooding event in the area since the Wild Card flooding in October 2019 in my opinion.

Man models not wanting to pop anything Sat. Very perplexed by this.

K-A-0-S.github.io

Intellistar (2013)

So after having those intense storms stew all day just south of DFW, we now see brand new intense storms blow up just north of DFW. But somehow, DFW itself still manages to dodge any real activity. What a season...

Recapping tonight’s dusty tornado in southwestern Oklahoma with a few images. These were taken in Eldorado.

Hey old buddies! pummeling thunderstorms around DC and Frederick early morning hours and afternoon 270 south of Frederick Md limbs down and leaf splatter covering lanes and two trees down. Left lane had some kind of washout and was closed Harrowing for Ho**rd!

I don't care about going to a met game. I'm taking several kids to the game from work.

You’re right about a lot needing to go right for 20+. I think the trend the last few years and the extraordinary base state of the basin this season would have me shocked if it didn’t happen. Of course, we know a fair number of NS end up debatable anyway. It’s the H and MH numbers for me. The key question IMO is whether an active WAM causes a feedback of strong SAL bursts that reduce instability in the tropical Atlantic. If not, I think we threaten records. Even if it does, I’d be surprised if this isn’t a top 10 season for activity.

Saw the actual blue angel fighter jets on the bay, they flew right into the squall.

Couldn’t happen to a better guy. May all of your Mets games be rained out so you can enjoy the rain.

I"m surprised. We heard thunder in North Laurel and then again in the Oakland Mills area of Columbia. We were also able to see lightning from the cell up near York after dark. Some signal in the CAMs for a few storms around later tonight, although I'm not sure what would trigger them.

Wow! Thanks

Full flower moon and a fighter jet cloud

It took a while to compile. All from Griswold. Look at the very first video (top left). It’s insane.

The people in the house 2 miles ese of Frederick said it scared them bad. What do you think winds were and anybody know about cloud tops?

Follower where, pics please

Bone dry. Sunny, hot, humid all day.