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Ok, let's see if we can conjure up this cape storm

Yeah the GFS shifted towards model consensus unfortunately.

Gonna head over to the LR thread and track this Cape storm.

Just kinda looks like that southern feature runs too far out ahead of the northern stream energy. Maybe the coastal can develop quick enough to throw some moisture overhead as the main ull swings thru.

I look forward to Carvers and others input here honestly. .

If the Euro Ai doesn’t show a snowstorm under 144 hours, it ain’t happening. One of my new life rules. .

The critical shortwave on the 0z GFS is slightly further east this run. Crossing WI instead of MN. That's probably not good.

trof aint digging at all

Ya a cut off low over Michigan probably ain’t good.

Yeah I’d lean in the camp where most of the models are. GFS has been on an island the entire time. Not sure how it impacts the wave behind it but I think if this continues to trend deamplified then the following wave would follow suit

I'm going to just be quiet from here on out unless there's anything good to say. I have nothing now.

Well we’re off to a bad start then

Waiting for the rest to update, intrigued so far. .

Nothing standing out so far 0z vs 18z

Wut?

Did I ever tell anyone that in my mind's eye, I picture Chuck as Napolean Dynamite?

finally a touchdown lol

lol - it's like "where the f*ck is Sirianni's house!"

The official die roll for this event is 13. chances = slightly higher than average

Icon looks like it has a lottle something with the CAPE storm...although the way the precip oriented hurt my feelings

Biggest run of the day for sure [emoji1787]

ICON with a uptick in moisture so far for the first wave .

I was gonna make an extrap HRRR joke but highk don't think it would be good so nvm! Biggest GFS run for 1/11/2026 past 10:25pm

It was a dumpster fire.

Didn't even bother to look at 18z. I'll take your word for it