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86.5 for a high today, not near the record high of 89 in 2010, but in the top 5.

torch!

Ugh. The early to mid next week system is now expected to pass well south of Iowa, so models have really dried up through ten days again, and that's after barely getting anything the last couple days. The ensemble averages have been too optimistic with their prediction of a wetter pattern.

Your creation is awesome too!

Yeah ok. “Furnace” it is, but we’ve moved past the time of year when that word makes people go “wow it’s hot outside.” It now means “damn it’s nice outside.” The departures will be AN.

If you wanna call some U70s a furnace then ok I guess.

First day going below 70°… ORH 9/20 PWM 9/21 CON 9/26 BOS 9/26 PVD 10/1 BDL 10/2

When normals are 68-72.. 78-80 is a furnace. No one is saying 85-90

There were very few dud years up until about 1920. Only 6 years recorded under 20 inches of snow in 52 years worth of records, 1869-1920. Couple that with cooler temps and longer snow seasons and the wintertime feel would have been much more epic than today. And it's true that we didn't have wildly more snow, although those decades are closer to our highest overall average on record of 30-ish inches.

It feels like the temps are just staying the same, while climo descends. But not like something that people will find all that noticeable given the last few weeks of similar temps.

Buncombe is getting hammered. Buncombe NC- 656 PM EDT Fri Sep 19 2025 ...FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING... * WHAT...Flooding caused by excessive rainfall is expected. * WHERE...A portion of western North Carolina, including the following county, Buncombe. * WHEN...Until 1000 PM EDT.

Know why the 2 day snowfalls are not any different from the daily snowfall in the more recent period, Don? It's because we very rarely have 2 day snowfalls anymore =\ And especially not in November and April.

I wonder if this is caused by gravitational changes, the sun has an elliptical path around the center of the galaxy so when we pass through areas with a higher stellar density it could influence the tilt..... it could also lead to more ELE (period mass extinctions seem to happen every 20-25 million years or so.)

What are normals ?

Snow seasons were longer in the past in the colder climate. The numbers were not wildly different, though. Below are the numbers for Central Park:

Milankovitch Cycles, small cyclical changes in precession, obliquity and eccentricity.

what causes changes in the tilt? is this a cyclic change?

84 for highs today for BDR and HVN.

Laki (1782), Tambora (1815) and Krakatoa (1886) also had something to do with it.

The heat definitely looks tempered for up here compared to some previous runs. Idk…maybe it averages a little AN given climo descending, but it looks like more of what we’ve had. I don’t think I’d call 75-80 a torch when we’ve been doing 90° in late September recently.

Volcanic eruptions might been a factor in some of those winters, but it doesn't explain the entire dataset of the 1800s being colder than what started happening during the 1930s either. The most notable volcanic episode was Laki in 1782-83, the winter that followed its eruption was likely the coldest and snowiest winter either North America or Europe has ever had. Washington kept quite the diary of that winter from Morristown NJ. I wonder what the temperature had to be to make the ink in his pen freeze? The lowest documented temperature from that winter that we have is -16 F from NYC just a degree colder than the -15 F that was recorded in February 1934. The 30s were a period of extremes.... Even more notable than the extreme cold was the over one dozen blizzards reported by Washington in our area in that historic winter.

I understand the Little Ice Age quite fine. The northern hemisphere was affected more than the southern, so you can't just go by global averages. In addition to that, regionally the 1800s were quite cold in North America. And with a name like the Climate Changer you should know even a couple of C deviation is massive for a long term average, which was what was occuring during that time period. All I was saying is that since snow records begin in 1869 in New York, those first few decades were weening off the cooler overall regime.

Not really sure how anyone can really come up with a real good analog for this winter anymore.Like Carver mentioned above we have a easterly QBO unlike last year it was more westerly.The SST'S in East Asia are so warm into the Yellow Sea and Sea of Japan,and in August resulted in the warmest month of August ever in South Korea and Japan,it was the hottest in Japan ever since records were taken back into 1898

Newark has the warmest temperature last November (83°).

Hey guys I've been mulling over starting a social media weather page for the region and what not. What do yall think about that?