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1028 hp should be enough

Yeah, it was kind of a mirage. It's over by 162 sliding S and E

Mother Nature doesn’t give a hoot how positive or negative we are

Yeah it def bumped SE but it’s still pretty much right on par with yesterday’s runs and now it looks pretty close to Euro AI. It had been increasing today until 18z. Either way the gap is still huge between both AIs and the OP runs. Fwiw I do not think they are going to win but even a 50/50 compromise is still a decent event for SE areas anyway.

850 comes below zero but sfc just nw, with best moisture still sliding to our SE

Expect a big and robust solution across all guidance at 0z. We have dinner guests so I probably won’t check in until gfs time. I wouldn’t say GFS Skynet is caving just yet. It wasn’t THAT different vs 12z and euro op/eps/Skynet is still pending for 18z. I expect a snowy Sunday. I always thought tomorrow was garbage for me.

Fun looking setup so far with gulf moisture available and cold air incoming, not retreating.

No dude...back me up. I need met verification here 156. it's bascially cold chasing precip...temps trying to come down

Precip kinda goes to crap ugh shears out

I’ll let stormtracker take over the rest

GFS will be hella close for the metros

If anything, it's the temps we might have to worry about as of now...still waiting

Yup, our last "true" HECS event area-wide, in 2016.

Feels like a race between cold and precip at 150

Temps looking to be cooling with some better moisture so far

pretty lazy forecast on my part but here's what i put out for my school's discord trust ellinwood over me

Looks like we are about to get whacked

Jan 22-23 rings a bell from ten years ago...

How come so positive?

I thought Jan. 22-23, there about, was mostly looking like temp issues already anyhow? And it's mostly just after that where the cold is more in place? (ETA: Though true, some previous cycles have shown that to be cold enough I believe).

IMO Sunday was never there, nothing to cave to. The AI models shouldn’t have been used, I understand why people wanted to believe them and that’s fine, people love snow here. I still think Sunday is a total whiff like the EURO and EPS have been insisting run after run. The RGEM just made a big move towards the EURO, the CMC is sure to follow at 0z. I would argue that we didn’t even lose it, it was never there. As far as tomorrow, I think it underperforms for everyone in the metro area south of Orange County and Passaic/Sussex in Jersey where the frontogen band sets up. To me it looks meh south of where I just mentioned….daytime event, the ratios are going to suck and surface temps are above freezing. You are also going to see subsidence adjacent to that deform band

Skynet is capitulating. Decent shift SE on precip shield and precip totals for all outside of extreme SE New England.

Trained him well

Got the EB mega heat island on the north end of LI and the D--tar smell from **** on the south end. I have been thankful for winter westerlies! KPT folks have extra wx "hurdles" for sure. Plus, the S Holston(KPT) is the lowest elevation in TRI I believe. I also think tailwaters (50s year round) are somewhat of an insulator to really cold or really warm temps.