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Do you have any blog posts which have explored the snowless periods of previous decades? I am really curious how this stretch compares/contrasts to those periods. I've always been under the impression those periods were the product of colder/drier winters (or moreso drier) while as this stretch we are still pulling off subpar seasons even when we're cold/wet. I mean who cares if we've gone through this before in the 1980's if its for completely different reasons.

Sometimes ignorance is bliss.....the veil of cluelessness will allow some to stare at guidance cross-eyed all season and weenie anyone who suggests that it may not snow, but climo is in fact a useful tool.

Despite the -PDO having leveled off, I think its still severely screwing us with shifting the East Asian jet north.

Wow nice they are both diving negative!!!!

Ineedweenies can bun it all he wants, but climo is indisputable and it is what it is. It doesn't apply to him, anyway...this is more for eastern Mass.

wow Dec 2015 didn't go below freezing once lol

I'll tell you one thing...if I come out of this month in single digits for snowfall, my outlook on the season will absolutely shift. I can only find one cool ENSO season since 1950 that did that and ended up sniffing normal, and that is 1966, which was a cool-neutral year.

December 1917 was the inverse of December 2015. Climatological Data for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - December 1917 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Sum 728 526 - - 933 0 3.52 23.5 Average 31.7 17.0 24.1 -13.9 - - - - Normal 44.8 31.2 38.0 - 837 0 4.14 5.4 1917-12-01 45 39 42.0 0.0 23 0 0.73 0.0 1917-12-02 44 26 35.0 -6.7 30 0 0.00 0.0 1917-12-03 41 19 30.0 -11.4 35 0 0.00 0.0 1917-12-04 M 29 M M M M 0.00 0.0 1917-12-05 43 29 36.0 -4.9 29 0 0.00 0.0 1917-12-06 M 29 M M M M 0.00 0.0 1917-12-07 M 21 M M M M 0.00 0.0 1917-12-08 43 17 30.0 -10.0 35 0 0.78 4.5 1917-12-09 43 14 28.5 -11.2 36 0 0.00 0.0 1917-12-10 16 7 11.5 -28.0 53 0 0.02 0.2 1917-12-11 22 9 15.5 -23.7 49 0 0.00 0.0 1917-12-12 20 15 17.5 -21.4 47 0 0.03 0.3 1917-12-13 32 14 23.0 -15.6 42 0 0.80 8.0 1917-12-14 30 22 26.0 -12.4 39 0 0.80 8.0 1917-12-15 M 11 M M M M 0.00 0.0 1917-12-16 19 8 13.5 -24.4 51 0 T T 1917-12-17 30 15 22.5 -15.1 42 0 0.05 0.5 1917-12-18 33 20 26.5 -10.9 38 0 0.00 0.0 1917-12-19 34 25 29.5 -7.6 35 0 0.00 0.0 1917-12-20 39 32 35.5 -1.4 29 0 0.00 0.0 1917-12-21 43 26 34.5 -2.1 30 0 0.00 0.0 1917-12-22 39 20 29.5 -6.9 35 0 0.00 0.0 1917-12-23 32 12 22.0 -14.2 43 0 0.00 0.0 1917-12-24 41 25 33.0 -2.9 32 0 0.00 0.0 1917-12-25 M 28 M M M M 0.11 T 1917-12-26 M 18 M M M M 0.00 0.0 1917-12-27 M 10 M M M M 0.00 0.0 1917-12-28 31 10 20.5 -14.6 44 0 0.00 0.0 1917-12-29 M -2 M M M M 0.20 2.0 1917-12-30 4 -13 -4.5 -39.2 69 0 0.00 0.0 1917-12-31 4 -9 -2.5 -37.0 67 0 0.00 0.0 Climatological Data for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - December 2015 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Sum 1755 1331 - - 465 0 4.40 0.3 - Average 56.6 42.9 49.8 11.8 - - - - 0.0 Normal 44.8 31.2 38.0 - 837 0 4.14 5.4 2015-12-01 52 42 47.0 5.0 18 0 0.36 0.0 0 2015-12-02 56 45 50.5 8.8 14 0 0.16 0.0 0 2015-12-03 55 44 49.5 8.1 15 0 T 0.0 0 2015-12-04 53 39 46.0 4.8 19 0 0.00 0.0 0 2015-12-05 54 35 44.5 3.6 20 0 0.00 0.0 0 2015-12-06 55 33 44.0 3.4 21 0 0.00 0.0 0 2015-12-07 58 34 46.0 5.7 19 0 0.00 0.0 0 2015-12-08 49 38 43.5 3.5 21 0 0.00 0.0 0 2015-12-09 53 33 43.0 3.3 22 0 0.00 0.0 0 2015-12-10 62 48 55.0 15.5 10 0 T 0.0 0 2015-12-11 60 46 53.0 13.8 12 0 0.00 0.0 0 2015-12-12 65 48 56.5 17.6 8 0 0.00 0.0 0 2015-12-13 68 54 61.0 22.4 4 0 0.00 0.0 0 2015-12-14 67 52 59.5 21.1 5 0 0.24 0.0 0 2015-12-15 68 52 60.0 21.9 5 0 0.05 0.0 0 2015-12-16 53 43 48.0 10.1 17 0 T 0.0 0 2015-12-17 59 50 54.5 16.9 10 0 1.02 0.0 0 2015-12-18 56 37 46.5 9.1 18 0 T 0.0 0 2015-12-19 41 34 37.5 0.4 27 0 0.00 0.0 0 2015-12-20 45 33 39.0 2.1 26 0 0.00 0.0 0 2015-12-21 54 34 44.0 7.4 21 0 0.00 0.0 0 2015-12-22 61 52 56.5 20.1 8 0 0.06 0.0 0 2015-12-23 66 50 58.0 21.8 7 0 1.44 0.0 0 2015-12-24 71 59 65.0 29.1 0 0 0.03 0.0 0 2015-12-25 63 54 58.5 22.8 6 0 0.03 0.0 0 2015-12-26 60 48 54.0 18.5 11 0 0.02 0.0 0 2015-12-27 62 46 54.0 18.7 11 0 0.08 0.0 0 2015-12-28 46 34 40.0 4.9 25 0 0.05 0.1 0 2015-12-29 45 34 39.5 4.6 25 0 0.60 0.2 0 2015-12-30 49 38 43.5 8.8 21 0 0.24 0.0 0 2015-12-31 49 42 45.5 11.0 19 0 0.02 0.0 0

My current temp is 31.6 and it will climb above freezing at any moment. This will end a nice little 79 hour streak of continuous sub-freezing temps going back to 2am on Sunday morning. The past 3 days have been wonderfully wintry.

https://x.com/i/status/2001009884540834205 Fwiw (not much, probably)

I legit am nervous. I know its early, but in the grand scheme of things, we're already assessing how the pattern looks to evolve post Christmas into New Years. If that period ends up sucking then we'll be looking towards mid-January...and so forth. I truly believe we need to completely flush out the entire atmosphere...we probably need a good multi year stretch where ENSO is a non factor and then hope we are truly on the -PDO decline. At some point the odds have to return to our favor but the background state is far from it, IMO.

All of those events will be showers followed by inverted "FUs" for us.

Upton is famous for not accurately predicting sky conditions - example is many times they post Mostly Sunny and then instability clouds start developing to the north and west and cloud up the skies here - this happens quite bit in the Spring also............

Every run that you loop up there just crushes them one after another. Is Nick still up there in the Labrador region?

Dang, only 3 of the top 25 are in my lifetime. We missed the best Decembers.

It's a perfect pattern for them...imagine that ridge few hundred miles west, INVO Idaho?

Bake bake bake sonora…bake the whole Divide Bake bake bake sonora…bake it all the time

We have been getting the windshield wiper effect from run to run. Some runs a little over and other runs a little under. So with the warm up coming the next several days, my guess for December 17 to 31 will be near 0 to +1.

It's getting exhausting and tedious....start to lose intrigue when you just know it isn't going to snow, regardless of what happens. My god.....if this season does it again, this will surpass the 80's-early 90s.

Don't get him going

Nice Sonoran heat release for Tippy.

Wouldn't mind getting this pattern in July. Monopoly Weather Chance Card: Take a ridge on the derecho express

Latest Weekly has cooled off for next week.

Where's the sun? Upton has mostly sunny it's completely overcast and looks socked in for awhile