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I agree. That it misses on some other key variables i.e., IOD, QBO, etc., leads me to rank it lower, excluding the SSTs. It's still in the larger mix. I'll re-examine the SSTAs later this month. The October outcome could provide a powerful clue. The 2013 500 mb outcome diverges from the last monthly ECMWF forecast for October. If the ECMWF forecast is reasonably accurate, that will indicate that the 2013 scenario is off track. And if the "Blob" continues to dissipate, that would be a further signal.

Yes! You got it right. Good description.

Yea, I'm not saying it's a precise overlay...but generally similar....I think January '22 had more of longitudinal element to the gradient...this is more latitude.

The wind was lame here with this one…breezy but no wind of consequence. But it would have been blowing the snow around some(would have been nice appeal), but no 6ft drifts imo if this was a winter storm…but I figured 12-18” for sure..but I like your 12-20 even better Steve lol. And with the light rain still happening…the 20” idea would probably be correct.

.97 and slowly gaining, pretty much what I expected.

Eastern part of Plymouth Cty (Mass) getting raked.

2 to 3 plus inches semass seRI

We got boned here in Jan 22…lousy storm in that one here. This was much more precip than that Jan ‘22 for my area. But I understand what you mean for a lot of places.

The storms from DC to Philly in January weren’t that impressive compared to what they used to get in the past. Suppression was still at play even in northern sections of those areas. My area in February was wet but only the weaker storms were cold enough for some snows. The strongest storm had highs in the 50s and heavy rain. We can refer to luck as a one-off or random event. But the continuation of the cutter, hugger, and suppressed Southern Stream storm tracks with the much faster Northern stream of Pacific Jet since 18-19 is a dominant weather pattern that doesn’t involve luck.

This is actually pretty similar to the January 2022 event in terms of QPF distribution...same haves and have nots.

This storm is more of a annoyance than anything else. No real beneficial rain will come out of this three day event. Tons of drizzle. That's really got to irk drought guy...

Much needed rain, regardless...but glad this one was a practice run.

I’m not home but looks like close to 2”. Looks like CJ in progress.

It's CNN so tfwiw but .. https://www.cnn.com/2025/10/13/climate/tipping-points-coral-reef-ice-amoc

It's too soon to tell. Last winter's miss was unusually large. One can probably use a +/- 1°C range to consider reasonable possibilities.

Just great to have a decent storm with wind and 15 foot seas. Some good gusts overnight

You would be looking at 12 to 20 with 6 foot drifts. Would have been a keeper

Starting with April every month has been below normal in precipitation at GRR including this month so far. The deficit starting with April is not as bad as some places but still a hefty 8.07" below normal since April 1.

Convective Offshore stuff moving in now

1.39 spinning offshore?

Weekend summary: 0.08" Sat, 0.09" Sun. Add in the 0.01 overnight, and let's call it 0.18" total Mist and drizzle this morning.

DC and Baltimore had some good snowstorms in January. That hasn't happened in a long time. Even Philly got a good storm in on 1/19 (otherwise we have a different Super Bowl winner because the Rams probably win that day). While December was wet, February was not. At least in my area. It really didn't turn wet until 3/5, and by that time, temps had turned above average and winter was pretty much over. But there was a good storm track on 2/20. It just went too far east, and places like Norfolk and Virginia Beach got a major snow event. I chalk up 2024-25 as just bad luck for NYC. I mean, you had major snow events in places like Baltimore, DC, Norfolk, and Virginia Beach. It's been a long time since that happened.

1.5” here so far…a good drink for sure. It would have been a good winter storm-nothing top tier, but solid for sure.

Yea, it's going to be raining the majority of the day, but not going to add up to much outside of CJ land and the higher terrain. Very banded, and the bands will favor said areas.

I think it’ll pick up a little there in the coming hours. Nothing crazy, just a soggy appeal.