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Savannah-la-Mar was apparently destroyed by a major hurricane in 1780, the worst season on record especially for the Caribbean. And that was also a year on the downswing of a solar cycle (peak was 1778). Speaking of that, I would include Andrew (1992) because the 1989 peak had a secondary peak in 1991, and also Agnes (1972) fits because of a large secondary peak in 1972. One could also mention the 1938 New England Long Island express (solar cycle peaked 1937).

Yes, please do. Let's keep this thread focused on Hurricane Melissa.

This National Guard trainer plane went over a road and almost smashed into this guy's windshield. The news reports say the pilots walked away from the crash.

One thing about the western shifts in track that might make this even more unlucky is we are getting close to a point where it could directly hit every potential landmass: Jamaica, Cuba, Bahamas, and Bermuda. Bermuda now squarely in play

Depends on where the center tracks.

Ice free by 2030. Lets go.

No

Being on the other side of the island is a big blessing though. It's like standing on the other side of a wall when the wind is blowing.

Looking worse and worse for western Jamaica and Montego Bay.

Just a wobble, sometimes they wobble as they start to adjust and turn. It did that earlier before it moved NW a few hours ago.

Depending on where the eye goes, N-NW-W winds would be bad for Montego Bay.

Helene showed the trees just become battering rams when the mountainside collapses and goes downriver.

Melissa is expected to turn due North then Northeast very shortly. would take a large very short term modeling error to miss the island sadly.

I was optimistic the warming in the sw eyewall might be a good sign but it seems to be cooling again with new hot towers firing in that region. This thing is an absolute machine.

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Melissa looks to be heading west again.. it would be funny if she somehow missed Jamaica.. probably just a wobble though

This will be Andrew + Katrina + Helene among some of the poorest people in the hemisphere.

Could it miss the island entirely?

Then the All Damage ATT people would be saying WWLT

It's really been hugging that left edge of nhc track though. Would hate to be forecasting this or chasing this.

But those resorts are big concrete buildings. If the worst of the wind and surge were to slam into Kingston....

It’s modeled to make the hard turn to the NE

This storm went from a central/eastern flank event to a western Jamaica threat. While there will still be crazy rain which will be horrific for Kingston and the mountains - negril and Montego Bay are in bad spots…

Seriously really starting to wonder if this is going to clip far western Jamaica. It's going to need to make a hard right turn

High Shear Low Cape (HSLC) environment for e PA/NJ/LI Thu afternoon? Don't know. We'll monitor SPC etc on this. Right now flash density from the 12z/27 EC op has a possibility of thunder here Thu afternoon NJ/ NYC. Back tomorrow.