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That said, orientation is not a big deal when the ENSO event meager, as this one should be...but all things being equal, I'd still prefer to see to see it east-based. Defintely some interesting early season hedges to be made with a cool/ENSO easterly QBO combo....

With all of the issues turf grasses have here you would almost think they aren’t native here. Oh wait. The same goes for european fruits too. Plums, peaches, apples, pears, cherries, and grapes? Lots of disease and pest issues. American persimmons and pawpaws? Not so much. Some of those native sedge grasses are a vibe though. I may do a little native garden with some of them.

I plan on doing this shortly. I've been working on composites a bit. I also want to work on a different approach which isn't as ENSO focused...which will help this year given we may be more neutral-ish. But I was thinking this...we are at a much different atmospheric state across the hemisphere now than we have been over the last several years, particularly across the PAC/CONUS...may not mean anything but we have been saying we need the atmosphere to flush out and maybe this is it!

Part of the issue lies in the initialization scheme. The top models (ECMWF, GGEM, and UKMET) all use the 4dVar initialization. Some have used it for more than a decade. Despite its demonstrated benefits, it was never integrated in any of the GFS upgrades perhaps because the U.S. lacks sufficient computing capacity. All other things being equal, that puts the model at a disadvantage. Its resolution is also more coarse than that for the leading models. With the disinvestment in the NWS and NOAA now underway, that won't change anytime soon.

tomorrow is the first day of summer around 10:30 am? Just in time!

One of my favorite parts of convective forecasting is the nowcasting element! Yes it has, even elsewhere across the country too. 3km did much better in the midwest yesterday.

Have you started looking at the winter stuff at all? I'm just getting going...

I also think there is a direct connection between seabreeze summers and winters in which the coast gets less snow, the processes are very similar.

Was hoping I could sneak it by Oh I know haha...I don't mind it but it's not as fun if I don't push back a little

Translation: Trends are unfavorable, but F**K it....lets obsess, anyway, given the notable absence of a social life-

tossed 3km nam has consistently done better for convection here so far this year

Anyway, Paul, you have known me long enough to understand I'm just teasing. I do appreciate your enthusiasm for weather...savor that because you will probably never witness me admit it again.

This seems like a nowcast day. Models are all over the place on both initiation and coverage of convection.

You are usging this logic on the wrong person.

DCA: 103 IAD: 101 BWI: 102 RIC: 100

Just hit 80 / 73 here

Obviously its ridiculously early, but there is some major work to do for us to see anything other than an east-based cool ENSO event take shape (assuming it is cool ENSO) given the evolution of the subsurface this spring.

I am not sure what to think of with the HRRR...it really struggled in the midwest leading up to yesterday and even during the day.

What interesting SNE wx actually produces these days? We’re a poor man’s San Diego.

ehhh this is where people get super confused. Not every convective event is about severe weather. I'm a weather enthusiast, I enjoy thunderstorms and I enjoy snow. But I think it often gets misunderstood that whenever I talk about convection or say we have a chance for severe weather that it automatically means widespread severe weather, that is not the case. 99% of our convective events result in localized severe weather. Even in the Great Plains and midwest not every convective event is a widespread high-end event. Sure they get them wayyyy more frequently than we do. I get excited for thunderstorms...whether that comes with the chance for a 40 mph wind gust, pea hail, or just some heavy downpours with lightning. People get excited for 2-3 inches of snow in winter, don't they? or get excited just to see snow falling? It's the same concept, only difference is the scale of the two phenomena.

HRRR says SW CT may have some decent storms. But initiation is sort of varied on models.

We gain 0.05 seconds of daylight tomorrow to make the longest day of the year at 15H:06M

Yeah, spots like JFK have more subtropical dew points during the summers now which are similar to those experienced over the Delmarva 30 years ago. So the subtropical zones have been shifting north. We have seen this shift with winter snowfall and temperatures also.

That blessed stretch where Oak St beach might as well be Waikiki.

Have I ever told you how much of a POS the GFS is?