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Looks like a dry fropa late week . Shocked

@CoastalWx @40/70 Benchmark Thoughts?

Near record AMO rise helping to boost the dew points.

Sometimes you can just see and feel it. Que the twister meme dropping dirt lol

It just keeps climbing with the record breaking WWBs continuing.

Few more days near 90. What a stretch. Stein and dews.

I'm not on any train. I actually think this upcoming winter will be snowier and colder than most people think. I bet it isn't warmer than 94-95 in the Eastern US.

Yeah no

64.7° Cold!

I'm glad I still have Pit2. I think Pit1 is going to be toast following last year's epicosity.

The main reason the pattern was more favorable in 1995-1996 was the much more extensive and longer duration cold into April. Plus the -NAO patterns were able to lock in during those days from the late fall into the spring. This time around we got the fast NAO reversal in March shutting off the snows. No doubt 2025-2026 was the very best winter of the 2020s. So it’s good to know that we at least were able to get a weaker reflection of that season. This was the first time that a weak La Niña with the 3 ridge pattern over the Bering, Baja, and Greenland occurred in 30 years. But the ridges were much stronger limiting the cold. It also took two seasons following that one for a super El Niño to develop. This time the super El Niño was instantaneous right after the winter.

I am reading that this summer is the hottest summer in Spain since records began in 1961. The first half of our trip was in the drier central and southern regions where it was very hot, but also dry, so any shaded area was very tolerable. But Barcelona, and now Sóller in Majorca are hot AND humid. I think this week is 12 - 15 F above normal. It’s rough in the full sun, especially since we are averaging about 7 miles a day of walking. It’s been an awesome trip though because mid-Atlantic summers have prepped me well. Today we seek out our spot for the eclipse! It’ll be a different experience for this compared to the last two as totality is at 8:30PM here, so the setting eclipsed sun will be just above the sea.

66F for the low here, a few more humid days and then summers back broken end of next week?

Closest simple match I could get for May-July US precipitation was a blend 1963, 1976, 1997, 2003 as a blend. A lot of years in winter end up coldest where Summer was wettest, 2009-10 was very cold in the East/South following a very wet May-Jul as an example. Most of the recent Ninos are much better than observed for the past May-July. The SE ridge is essentially displaced v. the blend, so the moisture in the SE has to be shifted to the NW, to include a bit more of the Plains and AZ, with the core dryness also centered somewhat NW of shown. For highs and rain locally, June 1-Aug 8 is almost identical to a blend of four El Ninos: 1953, 1958, 1994, 2023. Very hot, very dry. 2026 Jun 1-Aug 8 mean high: 94.9. Blend: 94.05F 2026 Jun 1-Aug 8 total rain: 0.80". Blend: 0.73" Interestingly, that blend is pretty consistently snowy in Nov-Jan locally, and then much more inconsistent Feb-Apr. But February is probably one of the warmest months on record for the US in that blend.

IOD and PDO forecast based on the latest seasonal runs. Note my PDO calculation runs higher than other sources. I haven't wired these maps into my website yet but I will post the link if anybody wants it later.