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Definitely like we are losing the LBNW look, more expansive qpf.

18/8 bone chilling cold. Up in the air on what to expect here. Could be 4-8”, 5-9” I’ll say right around 7” is my bet.

14/5 expecting 8-10” here

3-6pm

23 degrees in Kearny with a crystal clear night sky. Manhattan skyline looks incredible all lit up.

What time we looking at first flakes around nyc?

Honestly who cares what they have though? All they do is use the HREF. As that increases today , so will they

I’d call it nervous excitement but feeling like 6+ is fairly likely

They will, nothing stopping it now.

BOX not currently biting on higher totals for our area and points east, will see if this changes during the day

You must be pumped right now

Watch that. If you can squeeze even a slightly more amped ridge in the west here, this quickly becomes really interesting with a block in the Atlantic.

You got three ticks north

Yeah first fantasy cutter in a while, hopefully our doldrums end before too long, it's been way boring

UK held or slight improvement. The trend towards shifting the lows northeast and delaying their decay/shunt south is leading to a more north-south oriented snow accumulation distribution as it pushes moisture into the damned cold air. There will likely be a snowfall max now in ENY with excellent ratios. But if we can hold off mixing, our QPF might get a boost leading to a 2nd max further south near NYC or the HV but with lower (still decent) ratios.

A little warmer in the Midwest.

Brrr 12° with a wind chill of zero

Can you post a couple maps please?

My guess for us is around 7". I think we do quite well but can see how we end up on the higher side with good banding or get relatively skunked sitting in a subsidence hole with CT getting hammered and us mixing with sleet. I think it's low likelihood here but can't be ruled out.

The 9z RAP also shifted heavy snow into C/ENY and SVT (like the HRRR/NAM) and brought mixing into the southern tier of NY. A surface low in WNY is not ideal. We still do great locally, but I don't like seeing more snow in ALB than BGM.

Hoping it makes it here but thinking it sets up just south and west

Ya this will end up crushing pike with that band that was forecast here, hopefully we get another meaty band down here

Now that's XXX rated map the wanted to see