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It is based on RMM phases not specific to La Nina or El Nino. Phase 8/1 doesn't become as conducive until we head into January and February for the east. I wouldn't expect blazing temps but I certainly wouldn't expect downright frigid outside of the colder period until about mid December/3rd week. Still feel pretty confident in the warming potential as we move into christmas week and the new year. Surely things can change and it will be interesting to see if it does but overall I would expect near normal through much of the east with above normal across the SE. The true test will be what happens with the December 2nd/3rd system and how that sets up. We will be able to see if the models are overzealous in either direction with respect to the SER or cold pressing into SE Canada.

Legendary early season GFS run.

The UK is also an excellent run at 0z (both surface and aloft). Supports the GFS - maybe slightly better even.

noticeably warmer out in the last hour.

It’s too warm for close burbs but Kuchie is gonna spit out 25” for someone over a 12 day period in early early December. Fun but unrealistic night haha

I'm too old to get this excited!

Omg. Snowing again on the 6th too. Gonna bat 3/3

Dr. No sucked last year with way too many false Yeses, so screw it.

SOI has been fairly chaotic as of late,ups and downs,the last couple weeks,big drop two days ago,ensembles were looking severe last weekend into the first part of Dec,not no more 25 Nov 2025 1009.58 1005.50 7.63 16.34 9.25 24 Nov 2025 1007.56 1004.90 -1.40 17.10 9.38 23 Nov 2025 1009.73 1000.85 38.17 17.97 9.60 22 Nov 2025 1011.59 1003.75 31.56 17.51 9.41 21 Nov 2025 1011.94 1004.90 26.47 17.04 9.28 20 Nov 2025 1013.02 1005.20 31.43 16.68 9.16 19 Nov 2025 1013.90 1005.00 38.30 16.14 8.87 18 Nov 2025 1013.91 1006.65 27.87 15.23 8.46 17 Nov 2025 1013.24 1007.30 19.47 14.55 8.06 16 Nov 2025 1013.02 1008.85 8.20 14.05 7.64 15 Nov 2025 1011.89 1008.00 6.42 13.81 7.50 14 Nov 2025 1011.80 1008.10 5.21 13.71 7.48 13 Nov 2025 1011.52 1009.15 -3.25 13.44 7.37 12 Nov 2025 1012.06 1010.30 -7.13 13.43 7.36 11 Nov 2025 1012.19 1009.60 -1.85 13.91 7.44 10 Nov 2025 1012.05 1008.55 3.94 14.24 7.51 9 Nov 2025 1013.18 1009.05 7.95 14.46 7.52 8 Nov 2025 1015.00 1009.15 18.89 14.82 7.31 7 Nov 2025 1015.88 1008.40 29.26 14.92 6.94 6 Nov 2025 1015.28 1008.05 27.67 14.37 6.61

Gfs is active and cold . Nice to see.

GFS with a storm on Dec 5 - another 2-5” area wide. What a weenie run

Is this for a weak La Nina? We have to see whats going to happen because next week was supposed to be warm and now look.

What kind? Good or bad...

Can't complain about the 0z GFS. We haven't had a widespread coastal snowstorm like that in a while. Gorgeous ouput! CMC, ICON, ECM, and ensembles close enough for interest. Hopefully no big swings from here on out (doubtful)... Small, incremental improvements would be ideal. We are still almost a week out, so it's still going to be tough to pull this off I think.

Dr no will say no so just go to sleep on a good note

0z GFS snow for the mid next week chance period this run. This is starting to get interesting…

A thing of beauty!!

staying up for GEFS, then gonna call it a night

Sweet run for sure. Only 8 days to go… doubt much changes between now and then (KIDDING) Nice to see a trackable threat show up early. GFS has been latched onto this general window for a few days now. Let’s keep our expectations in check this far out.

CMC is a gentle step in the right direction. Not sure I’ve got EURO energy tonight but we’ll see.

Give us that and call it a winter

FIRST DIGITAL SNOW OF THE SEASON!!

@mitchnick I’m awake for the 0z GFS ! Maps will be posted shortly after this beautiful run.