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Better PV press on the gfs for next week. Like I said , the models have been way too warm in the long range only to get cooler as time goes on.

Its the truth. Look how the models are getting colder again in the mid range. Truth hurts for some of you.

the trend towards more of a wave break in the Pacific might make the first week of the month interesting... more of a -EPO, which displaces more cold air south. combine that with some lingering vorticity in the SW, and overrunning opportunities may present themselves

PV is dipping further south on the gfs. Overrunning looking interesting during the 1st week of december.

He says a lot more than that in that scene...not that I buy all of it, just thought there was some interesting points brought up.

My son is in Valdez, beautiful place Sent from my motorola edge 5G UW (2021) using Tapatalk

I'm looking for recommendations for in-helmet sound/communication - anyone have anything they use and like? My son has simply been using Airpods as he listens to music while riding. I looked into the Cardo Packtalk units and Alec Nunchucks and liked the idea of on-mountain communication while actively riding. Reviews are kind of all over the place though with respect to group communication. Any recommendations for a quality/reliable setup you have experience with is appreciated. TIA

Absolutely buy....that is the Pacific trough regime I expect to take hold around Xmas and through the first half of January that should flip to +TNH mid month.

Can't I have a piece of that negative NAO? La Nina doesn't need that

That's the dream ain't it?

Models keep overestimating the ridge in the long range just to lessen it when the time gets closer. We are in a weak la Nina. The south east ridge shouldn't be strong.

Models keep overestimating the ridge in the long range just to lessen it when the time gets closer. We are in a weak la Nina. The southeast ridge shouldn't be strong.

JMA looks like it is going to be the earliest to phase 8

If I am cherry picking models...I sure like the 6z AIFS paired w/ the 6z GFS.

Normal GEFS has it in phase 8 by DEC 6th now:

I would argue that the models are underdoing the Pacific jet and + heights near the WC and AK given that kind of tropical forcing unless the MJO can never get into 8, which I'm sure I'll be told

yeah strong nino decembers can “bust cold” such as with 2009 blocking, while nina decembers can “bust warm” such as with 2021. with the new climate, the odds of course are always more favorable to go warm than cold. i don’t think this december ends up torching though, especially northern tier. i can see it going 1-2 above.

@stormtracker,practice starts next Monday

My smoked turkey from Texas arrived this am. Good eating ahead. Happy Thanksgiving, all. Big winds seem likely later this week and then maybe some snow soon.

I mean if that MJO forecast verifies, it will be a weird Pacific H5 for what the MJO is. Something to watch to see if that happens: MJO amped in 7-8 and a -PNA/+AO pattern

2020-21 is the only winter in NYC that even surpassed the 20-inch mark since 2018-19: 2019-2020 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.5 2.3 T T T T 0.0 4.8 2020-2021 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 10.5 2.1 26.0 T 0.0 0.0 0.0 38.6 2021-2022 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 T 0.2 15.3 2.0 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 17.9 2022-2023 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 T T 2.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.3 2023-2024 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 T T 2.3 5.2 T 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.5 2024-2025 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.8 3.0 7.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 12.9

CFS runs 4x a day, and sometimes it will have the whole US below at 12z then the whole US above at 18z. Running more helps tracking scores to improve for more data.. but 2-4 week models haven't proven much more accurate than seasonal models to this point. I personally like the 384hr map on the ensemble means, seeing what the NAO, PNA, AO patterns look like.. that is pretty accurate. There is a pretty big model drop off after Day 15. Maybe they will continue to upgrade the Euro ensembles, but they have had some big misses since coming into inception several years ago.

Weeklies should be run every week again instead of daily.