All Activity

Impressive PWATs near 2.00” with post-tropical Isaias and a decent pocket of MUCAPE. So probably a 1” to locally 3” event where the best banding sets up from Sunday into Monday. Pattern warms up for a few days following the storm with the big ridge expansion. Wednesday looks like the peak of this warm up. If the front is slower allowing enough sun, then the usual warm spots in NJ could see low 80s. Interior sections could see first freeze next weekend. So an active pattern for mid-October.

Yes, transportation is only part of the CO2 emission pie and it will take time to replace the large existing fleet of fossil-fuel vehicles. Meanwhile CO2 accumulates in the atmosphere. Our outlook is better than it was a decade ago; but, it is not rosy. We have a hard time coming to grasp with the scope of the problem.

Mostly steady rain with breezes so far here at the house and 53°. I can hear stronger wind gusts higher up above the house and Popular trees are dumping leaves like crazy. This could mark an early end to leaf peeping season for a lot of areas.

No inconsistency, the CO2 growth rate has slowed in the past decade as the growth in CO2 emissions has slowed. The CO2 growth rate this year is unusually low. Note however that It is too early to tell how much of this years decrease is emission-related as there are large year-to-year variation in CO2 sinks. Renewables/batteries/EV will have a much bigger impact on CO2 emissions in the future than in the past. Renewables/EV were uncompetitive and a small fraction energy use a decade ago. Now they are competitive in many markets and capturing almost all the growth in global energy use. The cost advantage vs fossil fuels will only increase with time leading to increased market penetration. I don't want to minimize the problem however. CO2 accumulates in the atmosphere and there is continuing strong global growth in energy use. The CO2 growth rate won't begin to decline until non-fossil energy captures all the growth in energy use and begins shrinking the population of older fossil fuel burning units. https://tamino.wordpress.com/2026/10/04/co2-growth-and-el-nino/

.DISCUSSION... -- Changed Discussion -- KEY MESSAGE 1: Periods of rain and breezy conditions from Isaias arrive tonight and continue through Sunday Fair weather will be in play today with dry conditions and increasing mid and high level clouds.Rain associated with Isaias is projected to reach the Laurel Highlands before midnight tonight and gradually expand throughout central PA into Sunday morning. Periods of rain continue Sunday afternoon into Sunday night before tapering off by early Monday. Total rainfall amounts are still forecasted between 0.75 and 1.50 inches over a 24-36hr duration with a low risk of potential flooding impacts. As post-tropical/TD Isaias tracks from the TN Valley into WV, gusty winds will overspread the Laurel Highlands with maximum wind gusts of 35-45 mph west of the tallest ridges. Elsewhere, gusts of 20 to 30 mph will be possible. Winds will increase this evening, reaching gusts of up to 45 mph, before tapering off after 2 pm Sunday. A Wind Advisory has been issued for Cambria and Somerset counties.

Morning AFD from LWX DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Remnants of Hurricane Isaias to bring rain, breezy to windy conditions, and the threat of tornadoes Sunday. Hurricane Isaias is forecast to move north toward the TN Valley today as it weakens and eventually loses all of its tropical characteristics. The mid-level circulation strengthens and becomes a large cutoff low later tonight. To the east, surface high pressure over the Northeast today moves offshore off southern New England tonight. The interaction of Isaias` remnants to the west and surface high to the east will create a large area of convergence / broad frontal zone over the Mid-Atlantic. There is good model agreement that rain steadily moves from south to north this evening into tonight as forcing for ascent increases with some mid-level height falls in response to the approaching cutoff low. It`ll take a bit of time for the surface to truly saturate, so any rain late afternoon to this evening in Central Virginia is going to be light. Eventually, tropical moisture with PWATs at or above 2" surges in after midnight. It is worth mentioning again that conditions are favorable for a widespread soaking rain, and 00Z models have responded with more QPF across the region. Forcing for ascent increases tonight, and especially Sunday morning into Sunday afternoon as mid-level heights fall with the approach of the cutoff low. Enhanced low-level convergence and moisture transport will peak Sunday morning into early Sunday afternoon. Strengthening easterly flow into the Blue Ridge could also produce enhanced rain amounts due to orographic effects. As a result, forecast rain amounts have increased to 1.5- 2.5", with locally higher amounts of 3-4" possible. No Flood Watch issued with this forecast update as the heaviest rain is forecast to occur in areas that can handle it, but will continue to monitor the latest guidance today. Another noticeable trend in the 00Z guidance is the higher probabilities for severe weather Sunday afternoon. The main synoptically forced rain moves north of the area early Sunday afternoon. Rapid height-falls and increasing low-level winds provide a few hour window where some breaks in the clouds area possible, leading to pockets of instability. A surface wave of low pressure moves right through our area Sunday afternoon. Forecast soundings indicate large, swooping hodographs, with ample shear in place to support organized severe convection. Clusters of thunderstorms develop along the leading edge of the surface low pressure, with tornadoes and damaging wind gusts as the main threats (looks mostly to be east of the Blue Ridge). The NAM12, RRFS, and 06Z HRRR all show this scenario. The big question still remains how much instability actually develops. SPC has introduced a Slight Risk for Sunday just to our south, with a Marginal Risk north to the MD/PA border. The strong mid-level circulation is going to bring windy conditions to the Alleghenies and Blue Ridge, starting late tonight into Sunday morning. Wind Advisories have been issued for downsloping easterly winds in the Alleghenies (western Garrett, western Grant, and western Pendleton Counties), and the Blue Ridge. The current forecast for peak wind gusts is 40-50 mph in the Alleghenies/Blue Ridge and 20-30 mph elsewhere. The remnants of Isaias push offshore Monday, bringing an end to any lingering showers. While conditions return humid and warm Monday, there likely won`t be much in the way of shower activity due to subsidence behind the departing trough.

Trajectory looks good. I know it's tropical but I don't hate seeing these big slugs of moisture coming from the south with cold air around this fall. I want my cabin in NY under the snow by February.

Also I don't see any convection along the coast that will rob us of moisture...

Getting some heavy rainfall here already this morning.

Yeah this plus the winds will cause some major issues in the mountains.

This thing is moving its rain shield north so fast it is almost in south Virginia!

I was on your side earlier with some of the points you were trying to make. Now you're just becoming annoying. I repeat. It didn't make landfall as a major hurricane.

Okay.. .give me 1 land report of 105 MPH sustained winds??? You will not even come close.

NHC had it at 105mph when it came ashore, so it wasn't major.

BS and prove it... give me one reporting station on land that had major sustain wind speed.