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this is part of the frustration - focusing on minutia to distract from the elephant

54/51 with showers around, looks like a heavier band heading toward the valley

US National Weather Service State College PA Favorites · · 10/16/2026 @ 5:15am | A strong cold front will bring showers and storms today. Some storms could be strong-to-severe, bringing damaging wind gusts. Be weather-aware today, storms will begin across portions of NW PA early this afternoon and continue moving southeastward throughout the day

Muggy meters into Nov?

Its time for hoodie weather

This is classic, strong east-based/East Pacific (EP) El Niño forcing. And +IOD forcing is starting to show up in the global circulation now too:

Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service State College PA 511 AM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024-025-033-034-037-041-042-045-046- 170915- Warren-McKean-Potter-Elk-Cameron-Northern Clinton-Clearfield- Northern Centre-Southern Centre-Cambria-Blair-Somerset-Bedford-Tioga- Northern Lycoming-Sullivan-Southern Clinton-Southern Lycoming- 511 AM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Severe thunderstorms with damaging winds 60 mph or greater are possible late this morning through the afternoon hours. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday. Cold temperatures will bring about frost and freeze concerns Saturday night and Sunday night. The highest potential for frost and freeze will be Saturday night into Sunday morning where temperatures could drop into the upper 20s. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotters are encouraged to report significant hazardous weather. $$ Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service State College PA 511 AM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 PAZ026>028-035-036-049>053-056>059-063>066-170915- Huntingdon-Mifflin-Juniata-Fulton-Franklin-Union-Snyder-Montour- Northumberland-Columbia-Perry-Dauphin-Schuylkill-Lebanon-Cumberland- Adams-York-Lancaster- 511 AM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Severe thunderstorms with damaging winds 60 mph or greater are possible this afternoon and evening. An isolated tornado is also possible. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday. The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotters are encouraged to report significant hazardous weather.

We've gotten much better at avoiding deaths in natural disasters through prediction and warnings. The number and intensity of climate-related disasters is increasing. The death toll from natural disasters this year could be relatively high due to the European heat wave and the Nepal landslide. We'll see when the numbers come out next year.

Looks rather mild overall for the rest of the month. Love to see it.

Huh looks rather mundane next week. AWT. Maybe some winds and a few showers near coast or Cape.

Trend has definitely been towards a stronger tucked coastal. Major impacts for obx looking likely now with prolonged exposure to NE wind and fetch with strong winds on land as well. Inland this should deliver moderate but beneficial rain. If this is a sign for what’s in store this winter I’ll be very happy, this is a snowstorm setup just a couple months too early

58 degrees this morning. Raining

Forecast keeps bringing down the temps. Calling for a high of 49 for Saturday and a low of 30 degrees Sunday morning. I've also noticed the models are muting the warm up next week as well.

0Z CMC: 0Z JMA: 0Z UKMET like the 12Z and 18Z is well offshore.