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We’re advecting warmer air aloft 700-500. Usually not a good sign for SNE unless we had very warm temps. Definitely red flags as usual in SNE but kinematics are there. Like I said, get us over 80.

But at least when the cap breaks you are rapidly transporting moisture into the troposphere!

But that's how you get an EML!

haven’t read this am’s and yet but yesterday pm lot afd ack’d this and basically said the strength of the low may aide in overcoming this

drier air aloft also looks to be an issue down this way

Min 48.7° Frost on the pumpkin this morning

If we can bust 80 I think potential would increase here.

Hrrr is decent in CNE and NNE but looks like that’s due to better forcing despite being wedged. Looks like warm capped hangover breathe here as usual.

MAV 76 for BOS tomorrow MET 66 (and thats the evening) NBM 81 must be a front or something nearby tomorrow

Wet and wedged up here until mid afternoon tomorrow. Puff puff pass

Just a little bit of fog burning off at 8 am and 55.0/53.3 degrees, another 40's low of 49.0 degrees.

.02 rain this morning. Doesn't look good for rain in the immediate future either. We need some beneficial rain soon.

Far from normal

Wouldn’t get wild or hyped up for severe and tors tomorrow. All the parameters not lined up

Yes. Everywhere but here.

The 7th driest June 1st to 16th at Islip. Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY Driest June 1st to 16th Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 1967-06-16 T 0 2 1994-06-16 0.15 0 3 2005-06-16 0.23 0 4 1988-06-16 0.27 0 5 1999-06-16 0.31 0 6 2021-06-16 0.36 0 7 2026-06-16 0.38 0 8 1981-06-16 0.64 0 9 1973-06-16 0.67 0 10 2004-06-16 0.68 0

These things always seem to fizzle in summer with convection involved

I wonder if we see a small high risk on the new D1. That is a wild environment that will be evolving today. That is a very elongated line of supercells which develop ahead of the cold front later and not to mention supercells which develop along and ride parallel to the front and will be ingesting destabilizing air from the south.

But the CAPE is too low! "Only" 1291! Lapse rates not high by Midwest standards. So it works there but not here?

I’m buying decent rains

With the blues skies it was still warm out in the sun. But beautiful day!

55 degrees and rain showers this morning. Yesterday low 42 degrees was 13 degrees below normal. Record was 40 degrees set in 1960.

Forget the stupid hazard type. But holy hell WTF

Both TWN and WUN show far more sun today than the past while and even getting warmish to 23C. TWN has gusts to 80 km/h just after midnight for 3 hr but the sus part is sustained (40 km/h) and gusts are stable during the early hours, there s no way with a strong low and dynamic system like that. Gusts may get even higher. WUN has my lowest at 1am at 989mb. TWN was wildly off with temps this week; about 5C off a few recent days including now.