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  2. Stormchaserchuck1
    I don't think the SE, US will be below average temps like a lot of historical analogs suggest
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, someone in the New England forum was trying to tell me were going to have a -PNA this winter...I was like, fine a super El Niño that pulled that off. -AO/+PNA means you can essentially eliminate the bottom dwelling seasons.
  4. Guest

    Trying out the new zoom on the TCU

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    Trying out the new zoom on the TCU
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  5. Stormchaserchuck1
    Since the El Nino developed in April, it's been a clear mid-latitude ridging pattern under 90N +AO. That's been the dominant pattern - not anything coming from the Tropics I'm going to repeat this post, the pattern has been following itself closely, not anything in the historical analog dataset. Similarities to 2025 over the past 5 months: 2025 Apr-July 4/4 months -PNA 2026 Apr-July 4/4 months -PNA 2025 Aug +PNA 2026 Aug +PNA 2025 Apr-Aug 5/5 months +AO 2026 Apr-Aug 5/5 months +AO
  6. Stormlover74
    1 of 2 derechos that day. The 2nd one hit our area
  7. PhiEaglesfan712
    July 22, 2011 had high end heat. A lot of records that day, including EWR's all-time high of 108.
  8. 40/70 Benchmark
    What I can tell you based on what has been happening for the past decade is that the error is likely to be guidance underestimating the scope and magnitude of that Canadian ridge, so it's probably safe to assume that the greater heights will extend further to the south and east than most guidance suggests.....which combined with the poor read on the Pacific makes me very suspicious of that trend to shove the lower heights northward on the CANSIPS. This isn't me saying awful winter....I don't think, or want that to be the case, but that doesn't mean that I'm going to don my Frosty the Snowman boxers every time that I post.
  9. Chinook
    several tornado warnings in NY/PA today
  10. WxWatcher007
    While we’re setting the O/U on audible thunder at 0.5
  11. NorthShoreWx
    Labor Day 1998 https://www.cnyhistory.org/2014/09/labor-day-storm-1998/
  12. WxWatcher007
    I think Wx Twitter is going in circles because this will be the last Atlantic TC we see in a while.
  13. 40/70 Benchmark
    I don't know Wall, so I'll take your word for it. I think most on this board would agree that my only agenda is getting the forecast correct, and placing much stock into a model with such a poor initialization of the Pacific basin, both ENSO and extra tropical, gives me significant pause before seriously considering it's output. This isn't about CC, or how well the model did last year....it's about the fact that it has such an obviously poor read on the Pacific.
  14. WxWatcher007
    Don’t look at western NY
  15. CoastalWx
    It’s funny how bad we are at convection.
  16. CoastalWx
    BGM didn’t even hit 70 today. So that kills Kevin’s argument.
  17. weatherwiz
    What a line and reactivity gradient. Holy smokes
  18. CoastalWx
    That’s not true I just explained why. They had storms in a WAA pattern despite SE winds. Now stein.
  19. mahantango#1
    Good lightning show to my north.
  20. mahantango#1
    .76 rain today.
  21. mahantango#1
    Here too, thought we were headed to dusk.
  22. Maestrobjwa
    I cannot believe all those folks around the league were wrong about Albernaz...and that this isn't growing pains. I mean he was quite sought after the previous off-season, and highly spoken of! I'm skeptical of the notion he'll never get better. He could very well be a great manager elsewhere if he gets fired here. But no matter how you slice it--getting fired after your rookie season with no chance to grow is humiliating to say the least. Gonna be interesting to see what happens.
  23. Hoth
    Impressive event in upstate NY and PA for sure.
  24. Brian D
    79/62 today. Very nice day. Increasing rain chances coming up with a Lake breeze. Hopefully will do well in the precip dept.
  25. Damage In Tolland
    Binghamton is gonna gust 75+
  26. Damage In Tolland
    The N Atlantic kills us 9 times out of 10. Especially east of River
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